EOA overpair vs weird betting line

Obviously you called and lost or there's no post!

Bet bigger on wet flop

You are too high on your own range to fold. If you want something to fold maybe kk with the flush draw blocker as those are cards he needs to bluff with. If you fold this you need a massive read and never show obv. A fold here is massively exploitable. Sorry he had JT or whatever.

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

What's an EOA bet? Is that end of action?

PRE - Against this V, I could see raising bigger, just to juice the pot a bit when we're IP, and to define his range at least a little. Maybe make it $35 or $40.

FLOP - when we're heads up, I could see c-betting 2/3 pot on this wet, two Broadway board. Betting 1/3 pot is just too small. At least bet 1/2 pot.

TURN - I really like his 1/2 pot donk to rep Tx or better. Most people would flat call in our spot with their over-pairs. But when V does this, he's likely to barrel the river for a big size. I could see making a stop raise here, to $150.

RIVER - as played on the turn, we're in a tough spot. We're losing to Tx, J9, and some boats. Our As blocks his BDFD combos that bluff turn and missed.

If we think he has enough bluffs, like KJcc/KJss, or that he's capable of turning a worse PP like JJ or 99 into a bluff, I guess we can call. But if he's just always had it when he takes an aggro line, I can get behind a nitty fold here.

Enemies of Allah?

Early onset Alzheimers?

Effective orifice area?

Everquest Online Adventures?

Evil on arrival?

Émissions Otoacoustiques?

In all seriousness, no one here has an actual read on what this line means from a weird but relatively unknown player, so I would hew very close to theory, in which case you really can't fold best overpair to 3 streets of betting.

He's probably heavier on Tx than a bot but also heavier on the bevy of obvious draws, all of which blanked on this river except J9/97.

lolll end of action

The donk bet was confusing to me. The raise is certainly an interesting idea, although what's to stop him from calling and then just donking the river again?

When was the last time you saw someone donk on any street, get raised, flat call, and then donk again on a brick?

I saw it once, recently. I was the PFR. Rec-fish donks flop on a board of KQ4. I raise. He calls. Then he donks turn again, on a total brick. I raise again, he tank-folds, and I show him that I raised him with bottom pair, no kicker (54s). He said he had me beat. Yeah, no $hlt. Figured he had 66-99, something like that.

What sort of hand donks, flats a raise, and then donks again on a brick? Hard to see thick value in the range that takes that line.

Here, if your guy has a strong Tx or better, he'd 3B turn. If he has a weak Tx or busted draw, he'll check river. If he's on a draw, he'll probably fold to the raise. If he doesn't fold, and he makes his hand, then maybe he donks again on river, but then it's just an easy fold, when the obvious draw comes in.

The point of raising the turn is so that he doesn't get to realize his equity with his draws.

His line looks exactly like a 10 that donked out ott because of the FD. Calling turn was fine but I'm folding the river to a passive player who's had it every time he's raised. I might even thank him for betting so much so I can easily get away and I would be cbetting like 40 there, but that's just me.

Like the sizing pre. Go bigger on flop ($40-50), this guy is loose/passive and is probably going to be pretty inelastic to our bet size. I think turn flat is fine, you can raise if this guy donkbets or takes weird lines in a lot of hands.

River spot is interesting. Since it's such a big bet & a ramp up in betting size, I'm inclined to give a lot of credit here. Big bets mean big hands. You also say he's always had it when he's raised; I consider this spot equivalent. If he went like $100-120 I think it's an easy call. Against the $200 I think we should fold all bluff catchers, just basically saying there's not enough air/bluffs by V here.

His line is supposed to look exactly like that, which is why it makes for a good bluff. We'll almost never have Tx in our range as the PFR when we c-bet the Q-high flop. Floating the flop and donk-leading turn when the middle card pairs is a strong play, especially with a hand like J9 or KJ, or a flush draw.

yeah, of course it "might" be a bluff, but we can't just start calling down in all these spots because "he could be bluffing". I would want a history/read that he's capable of doing this because a passive player that limp/calls the majority of their hands is just a fish who's not even likely thinking about our range or how many Tx hands we have.

The more I look at this, the more I like raising turn. Yes, he could be donking out with Tx, but Tx could also just go for a check-raise when the PFR c-bet the flop.

The big river bet feels like J9 that put in a stop-bet on the turn, or a bluff. You said he had it every time he's RAISED, but has he had it every time he's BET?

I agree with you completely. We can't just start calling down because it might be a bluff. We should definitely be raising that turn donk for 1/2 pot, rather than letting him see the river with his draws.

I mean he had bet and received folds but I can't remember him losing showdown.

I'm considering bet size by the board's interaction with our range, and how it may change on future streets too. A lot of our "bluffs" have high equity, or outs to nut/near-nut hands, which means they may want to bet flop large (hands like J9s/98s, KJ, AK/AJ, our flush draws...). I also want to bet bigger with hands like QJ+ because the runout is going to affect our ability to get value, so I want to get more value early. With our super monster hands like QT/sets or when we turn a straight or flush, betting 50 on flop also affords us the ability to get stacks all-in eventually without villain having to bet or raise us.