The NHL Thread
For the 5 of us who post NHL stuff, here you go. Officially the season starts Tuesday October 11, although there were tw
Goallllllllllllllll
Everything coming up oilers
ok yeah this is def hell
Is this really gonna happen
Have to wait until its 3-3 before joining the bandwagon
is g7 on sunday or monday?
why do the loilers always turtle like this? you were outplaying them ... so just keep doing that?? it's so weird
thats not a dive huh? lol
florida winning game 7 almost seems crazy at this point. they just look slow, worthless and pathetic compared to edmonton now.
that would be a brutal tease to oilers fans though
Game 7 woo hoo
Haven't seen that many empty nets since they tried to dredge the remains of that carbon fiber submarine.
it seems to be the best public stat, that i know about, that captures a player's value, in specific game states anyway (e.g. 5v5). i know dom's game score model thing takes other factors into consideration, like special teams, taking/drawing penalties, etc. there are certainly other war and game score models out there, if you guys know of any lmk. but i'm mostly interested in 5v5 play anyway. afaict it tries to take the shooting and goaltending luck out of things by focusing on what is expected based on the play.
from my understanding, these things are highly situational, linemate dependent, and not very strong indicators - ie mcdavid will be used very differently from game to game and at away games is going to always have the nightmare matchup due to last change rules
yeah ppl say this kind of thing a lot, but if that's true, then you can see how it invariably evens out because he gets the opposite matchups at home. in any case i think ppl have found that quality of competition isn't much of a factor, because it does indeed mostly even out over large samples. sure certain guys like mcdavid probably get tougher matchups on average, but it's not that big of a deal.
from what i understand quality of teammates is much more important.
e.g. playing on mcdavid's line vs playing on any other oiler line
but over a big enough sample i think this stuff washed out. so when you see that marner has 57% xg over the last 3 seasons vs nylander's 55%, it might be fair to say that the former is better. but there's other factors to consider: how they are on special teams, penalty differential, it might be complicated by who's gotten more time playing with matthews at 5v5, etc.
idk, in a nutshell i guess it seems better than what we had before; looking at corsi/fenwick and trying to read the tea leaves from that. we knew all along that the problem was this told us nothing about shot quality, and well i think expected goals speaks to that.
over a small sample it doesn't mean much. like when i do these game reports i'm not really trying to say anything, it's literally just saying what happened in that one game. over a larger sample it means more. have large a sample do you need for data to be meaningful in hockey? 10 games? 20? half a season? a full season? 3 seasons? who knows. mostly just trying to have fun here and generate some discussion.
thanks for taking the time to respond - i think you make some good points, it's probably better than the other stuff but i'm deeply suspicious of advanced hockey data
yeah it was more about linemates and whether they are taking shifts in the offensive zone etc
ie a game where edm wins 4-0 and the coach lays off the gas and only puts in mcdavid in nice offensive situations for 18 minutes is going to play out much differently from a 4-4 close game where coach moreso focuses on just getting him on the ice as much as possible to get an absurd 25 minutes
he's definitely an outlier - but if you watch footage of the opposition bench during the playoffs, they literally have one of the coaches on mcdavid duty just watching for him to come over the boards and the second that happens they alert the mcdavid shutdown guys so they jump the queue to go out next so he's one of those guys who's going to have a very high variance of outcomes for those advance stats depending on whether the game was close, whether the other team has shutdown defensive guys, and whether the coach decided to pair him up with hyman and draisaitl or instead put him out there with corey perry and mcloud
i agree that over the course of a season that stuff will kind of zero out
but my biggest beef is that those metrics are primarily taken by measuring shots for vs shots against and certain coaches have "defensive zone lines and offensive zone lines" where they often shift to the bench during any transition between the two and thus get a massive advantage in accruing good looking stats - this is a huge reason why those 4th lines look terrible, because they are often used to grind out defensive zone faceoffs while the better players rest
and linemates are so huge, there's just no way on earth that bertuzzi is as good as matthews, but xg says he is - and i can imagine that's why the leafs are going to idiotically sign him instead of investing in some good solid defenseman
Poor malucci. Good for Edmonton but bad for malucci.
Wow what has happened to the Panthers?
I will be shocked if Florida wins game 7. They look absolutely done. Same look the Sharks had when they blew their 3-0 lead.
All it took for a Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup is for me to place a bet on the Cup winner to be American.
Gun to my head I still pick FLA to win game 7. The meltdown of their fans is already fantastic though. Multiple people saying win or lose this is it for them as sports fan, some guy has already pivoted to soccer, another claims even in case of a game 7 win, the cup would be "tainted". Can't wait for the lulz if they actually lose.
You'd think Oil fans wouldn't react nearly as badly in case of a loss despite the fact that this is mostly the only cup final they'll have with McDavid. Otoh, they are canadian.
No chance Florida wins game 7. Oilers win by 2+
Draftkings has Florida at -115 and Edmonton at -105. Time to bet the farm.
Circa has Panthers-114 Oilbois +104
Will be interesting to see how that number moves, but how could you bet Florida? They’re so very done.
limits are 20k right now - they wouldn't have opened it up like that unless they thought they had it in the neighborhood of the closing line, doubt it'll move much barring big injury news
Is it fair to say win or lose McDavid is Conn Smythe
