Jiggities Stream River Jam
Friend of mine played this hand, and we are having a debate about what to do.
Game is Texas 5/10 with deep stacks. A few crushers in the game. My friend is more of a tournament player with a nice tournament win but is mostly unknown to the pros in the game, and probably they see him as a potential mark.
Up to this point he's played mostly straightforward, no big bluffs shown, someone tried to bluff him when he rivered the nuts. The "nit game" is also on. Villain does not have a nit button (last person with one pays $350 to a splash pot). Hero has a nit button.
Hero Is UTG+1 with $7.4k
Villain has $6.1k
UTG straddles to $25, UTG+1 (Hero) straddles to $50, LJ straddles to $100.
Folds to SB who makes it $700. Folds to Hero who has J♦J♠ who flats. Other straddle folds.
Flop K♣4♣7♠ $1800 in pot.
SB checks, Hero checks.
Turn K♠ $1800 in pot
Villain leads for $1100, Hero calls.
River 8♣ $4000 in pot
Villain jams 4.3K
Hero: ???
Spoiler
My advice on this hand, but I am biased knowing the opponents hand. S will be raising a LOT of hands here to pick up the dead money. He has some strong hands but a lot of medicore hands to try to steal. Hero is going to call here with a lot of hands that are playable in position and JJ is probably the tip top of his range to call, so can't imagine villain ever thinks he is this strong.
Flop check is probably fine, but I prefer a bet to take the lead and just make the hand play easier. I figure villain is checking sets or maybe hands like xc7c, betting a lot of good kings, 56, flush draws.
Turn makes me feel a lot better, odds of a king goes down a lot, and if he had 77 or 44 somehow, I just don't see him betting that large here. So he could possibly be betting a lot of hands here, probably even betting everything in his range at this point. Call will let him keep bluffing when villain is behind and not get whacked when you are behind. Raising just doesn't accomplish anything and I'm never folding.
River brings in the flush which isn't great, and hero unblocks it. But I just figure villain is betting flush draws a LOT on the flop. 56 also gets there, but I also think he leads this on the flop a lot unless it's maybe 56c. 88 is a hand that is possible that got there accidentally, but what hands are shoving river for value?
88
44 (slightly discounted because of big turn bet)
77 (slightly discounted because of big turn bet)
Basically any suited ace, but A7c is one where you probably check flop and don't mind just check-raising if he bets.
76c is a hand that fits the check flop more,
56c fits
56 not clubs also fits, i think that's the bottom of what you can jam here and hope worse calls.
But his bet is saying he has a flush or he has air.
As for missed hands that have good bluffs there - he just has a massive range of hands that he raises pre like this, checks flop, then tries to double barrel. Especially this player, who is very good and aggressive, he is capable of doing it with anything.
Hero on the other hand, besides hitting a flush or straight on the river, is pretty much at the top of his range. Getting just under 2-1, I think jacks are just too strong to fold, especially under repping here.
Hero folds here, but I learn more towards a call the way it was played.
17 Replies
Your analysis is nonsense from the beginning. Why would SB be trying to steal a lot here?
Hero needs to 3bet pre
If SB is stealing light for 7x OOP to the universe, then more power to them.
I don’t despise the flat pre in some circumstances, but with the super-dooper straddle left to act and the raise being lmao7bbs 60bbs deep, I think a 3! is quite a bit better. Perhaps even a jam. The added element of a $350 nit game makes it even less close.
Flop can go either way. Again, existence of the nit game might lean more bet if that’s not too transparent. This is a case where winning pots IS almost as important as winning money.
Turn obviously fine as played. Jam is perfectly viable to exploit the fact that people don’t check flop with enough Kx in these games. It either gets value or denies a world of equity.
River is a horrendous bluff catch in theory. I’d rather have any pair to the board or obviously a club or even AQ would be nice. Again, though, this line is probably way underutilized with trips or even frankly flushes and straights because everyone’s so addicted to betting backdoors in what is a big pot in absolute terms.
(I don’t think the nit game element matters as much by the time we get to this part of the hand btw.)
We’ve really provided no reads on SB, though, so I don’t know how much you want me to go out on a limb and say we need to call here…
Maybe it’s not even a bad bluffcatching candidate. OOP with only one bet behind in such a weird spot, I think a live weirdo will value bluff tens with a club.
Also just noticed the draws that got there are all front door draws. I think that makes my comment apply even more tbh
Hi sharks, I’m asking for $100,000 to play live poker. For evidence that 5/10/25 is softer than 25nlz, I submit to you this hand recently posted on the twoplustwo forums…
That’s not how it works when you’re OOP to four people. Nothing dead about that money.
Probably raise pre especially with the nit button.
River is close. Blocking the missed spades isn't great but as you said your hand looks weak
Probably call
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Loads of conflicting logic in ur analysis.
Not 3betting pre is a pretty big mistake. As open raise sizing goes up you should be raising more and calling less.
Jamming makes a ton of sense since the nit game is on and will get called by worse a ton bc of that
Betting flop would be a torch. His check is good
River is a very clear call
I would 3bet pf.
Rest of the hand seems fine but I would call the river pretty easily. Seems really easy to overbluff in villain's shoes.
Yes, you are 600bb deep vs. the largest straddle ... but that matters less when SB opens 7x.
H with 0.5 of the final straddle in and a 7x open ... it's not a great spot, but at least we'll be in position post.
People saying just lol 3bet are probably assuming SB opens way way wider than he should for 7x here. They might be correct in their assumptions though.
Indeed the entire hand kind of feels like a "lol, live reads" the entire way, so any kind of outside analysis seems sus. V is always just bluffing any2, ez river call.
For normal sizings I'd assume a robot playing as H would call JJ a decent amount preflop, and mostly be folding without Jc by the river. Also seriously doubt JJ is "the tip top of H's range" for a robot, esp. on this runout.
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FWIW gto. wiz doing 6 max 200bb and V opens UTG and we call UTG+1 and everyone folds (yes, far from close but someone else can run something custom locally with 4 blinds and a monster 7x open).
Flop check/check (H checks JJ 50% with a Jc and ~60% without).
Turn bet 125%/call (H folds 28% with this combo. roughly: JJc fold more, JJs call more).
Note: that ALL-IN would be 834% of pot
River bet 132%/ ... H folds 100% without Jc and still folds 65% with it. JcJs is unique and calls 12%
River bet 59%/ ... H folds 100% without Jc and mostly calls with it
Yes, you are 600bb deep vs. the largest straddle ... but that matters less when SB opens 7x.
H with 0.5 of the final straddle in and a 7x open ... it's not a great spot, but at least we'll be in position post.
People saying just lol 3bet are probably assuming SB opens way way wider than he should for 7x here. They might be correct in their assumptions though.
Indeed the entire hand kind of feels like a "lol, live reads" the entire way, so any kind of outside analysis seems sus. V is always just blu
$6000 / 100 = 60 not 600.
For normal sizings I'd assume a robot playing as H would call JJ a decent amount preflop, and mostly be folding without Jc by the river.
I think this is most analogous to LJvCO, in which case bots essentially never have a flatting range. That’s largely because of rake, but I think we should treat the nit game as effectively (very costly) rake for seeing the flop here.
All of this without mentioning SB’s raise size, which we all know is most exploitable to 3!s.
So like yeah, flatting Jacks pre can be a cool thing to do some time, but why are we choosing this as a time to do it?! Every factor is telling us to play more aggressively. Make it $1600 or maybe even ship it.
FWIW gto. wiz doing 6 max 200bb and V opens UTG and we call UTG+1 and everyone folds (yes, far from close but someone else can run something custom locally with 4 blinds and a monster 7x open).
I ran LJ vs IPcc range with 1500 in the pot and 5400 stacks, and it’s largely the same advice.
I don’t think anyone’s questioning what to do in theory here. You have a split pair, try to keep the pot small and if the board brings bad cards and you don’t block any of them, fold to multiple streets of aggression.
But, for example, the solved basically never has IP ship the turn over the delayed cbet. I think this is giving some poker streaming bozo who opened 7x pre way too much credit for checking flop with a balanced range. I think a shove strat will do wonders for our range, and can be great for this hand precisely.
Turns out I ****ed up this hand, the straddles and some quick action on the stream screwed up what actually happened. When I first watched I didn't realize the straddles were there and I thought hero opened and got 3 bet. Then when I watched the second time, I thought it was folded to the SB. Watched it again and turns out the button made it 250 before the SB made it 700. Button is a tough pro player as well as SB.
So that changes quite a bit. Not 3-betting is a travesty there. Not 4-betting is way more reasonable. Villain will be 3-betting a LOT tighter than he would be opening. And now hes $700 raise makes way more sense as it's a <3x raise from the button. No real reason to believe the button is especially strong at this point.
So I think a mix of flatting and 4-betting with JJ here is probably reasonable, with a 4-bet to like 2k and being willing to fold to a 5-bet (and especially fold if it's 5-bet by the button then called). You have to worry about 2 players here potentially having a hand, as well as not closing action, so it's kind of a shitty spot to be in.
I put villains range in these kinds of spots on AJs+, AQ+, 99+, 76s+ and maybe a few wheel suited aces.
With that information, I at least can understand the flat.
So now we at least maybe narrowed villains range a bit more with his 3-bet instead open, the analysis might change. He's going to have a lot more stronger hands than before, but less likely IMO to really be nutted here on the river.
Does this change things where he finds a call more often? Or is a call even worse?
Yes, that changes everything except the flop
FWIW there is no rake in this game, just time charge. Nit game tax is almost like a negative rake by winning a pot.
Hero has the nit button, this is a fold, AINEC
Results: Villain had T9d.
Hero tanked and folded.
