Exploitative fold or massive punt?
Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Pokeit
UTG: $2.45 (123 bb)
MP (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)
CO: $1.89 (95 bb)
BU: $2.14 (107 bb)
SB: $2.75 (138 bb)
BB: $2.01 (101 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP with J♣ A♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.05, 2 players fold, SB 3-bets to $0.17, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.12
Flop: ($0.36) 2♣ 6♥ 3♣ (2 players)
SB bets $0.18, Hero calls $0.18
Turn: ($0.72) A♠ (2 players)
SB bets $0.72, Hero calls $0.72
River: ($2.16) 8♠ (2 players)
SB bets $1.68 (all-in), MP (Hero) folds
Total pot: $2.16 (Rake: $0.10)
SB wins $2.06
At these stakes it feels like this is AQ or AK almost always, but maybe I'm just a coward. Help a 2nl fish out.
11 Replies
You dominate ATs, some Axs (hh, dd especially A4s, A5s with the gutter), being a 2nl player to me, in this spot, means much more that he will overplay those hands at least sometimes, than that he will nitty it up.
I'm calling 100% of the time in this spot, unless he is a nit with absurdly low 3bet and overall preflop stats.
I guess in theory it's a pure call, in practice I don't hate the fold vs a lot of microstakes players because they don't 3bet what they should 3bet and would never ever bluff in this spot.
Yes, it's a nice fold on nl2.
Looks fine. 3-Bet pot and someone barrelling off at these stakes, especially when you have blockers to the nuts... looks like a good fold.
I think it's borderline. Not sure they have enough weak Ax that 3b compared with a high concentration of all AQ/AKo. If it's borderline you can usually default to overfolding, whereas overcalling can hurt you more if you're wrong (and we're wired to think folding is wrong)
I imagine a standard call vs a whale or aggro type though. So fold/call. Click the fold/call button.
It is a disciplined fold, in micros you will face all the AQ, AK and almost never worse Ax or bluff
good fold IMO
Does he value worst than TPTK on 3 streets ? It's a Fold for me. "There is no shame in being cowardly" (Davidi Kitai) 😁
On the flop I prefer raise. I think his range on a PSB OOP must be TT+, ATs+, [A6s-A2s], AJo. I'm ok to go AI.
I completely understand microstakes, all the way to 50nl at least, are still under threebetting and in general playing more passive from the blinds vs IP. Still, I'm a bit surprised if it is really true that 2nl players are not 3b suited AXs, as I do not think the reason for the under defending is a lack of suited Ax, but a lack of non-intuitive offsuit 3bets. And overplaying is the mark of bad regs.
I'll accept what you guys say, with a pinch of salt, as it's not worth spending time doing uNL MDA LOL, but please be careful with assumptions.
Fair. The betsizings seem sus
I completely understand microstakes, all the way to 50nl at least, are still under threebetting and in general playing more passive from the blinds vs IP. Still, I'm a bit surprised if it is really true that 2nl players are not 3b suited AXs, as I do not think the reason for the under defending is a lack of suited Ax, but a lack of non-intuitive offsuit 3bets. And overplaying is the mark of bad regs.
I'll accept what you guys say, with a pinch of salt, as it's not worth spending time doing uNL M
I think this situation is more about the polarization of pure bluff vs higher value Ax. My assumption in this hand, is more about how often a micro player understands they can get more value by bluff catching if they have Ax that's not two pair or AQ+. Combined w/ MDA, that not enough micro players 3-bet and barrel off as pure bluffs.
Got it. Thank you guys, FreakDaddy gave an interesting point that they might not really be running any bluffs at all in 3BP, to which even an occasional merging mistake will probably not be enough for us to turn a profit with the AJcc here. Which also makes sense with an under 3betting value-heavier range to begin with. Good point about the sizing Ceres, you mean turn right? I missed it, but looks sus to me also.
