AA vs Donk Lead Jam on Turn

Hand's played well, you're clearly not folding. Sorry for your loss...

(I personally put 100 on top pre to make it seem like I COULD fold to a jam. Prolly doesn't matter against described player.)

not sure why we're giving such good odds to chase a FD. With this goofy pot/dynamic in play I probably just ship flop and hope he calls off with whatever. I typically find there to be 2 types of minraises

• Preflop = juicer, they have something stupid like 78s
  
• Postflop = immortal nuts, they are trying to milk you for all you're worth
  

Considering what he just did I'm inclined to believe he hit his hand. I cant find a single bluff or valuebluff that min3bets pre, x/c flop then donkjams turn. Maybe 99d/TTd? But thats just wishful thinking. However I can think of plenty of value hands that take this line. For $100 I guess money well saved, move along.

On flop, we have less than a PSB left, why are we betting a 1/5 pot, instead of just shipping?

Agree with both of these points. Betting small on the flop is good because it allows Villain to continue with hands that are drawing dead against us like AQ or underpairs. If we jam we only get called by Kx and flush draws, which we can get all the money from on the turn anyway.

Plus, we can induce Villain to spew. Have to hope that is what is happening now. Villain can conceivably play AK like this as well, so we beat value.

The only way to price out a flush draw on the flop is to add money to the table somehow. If hero jams $500 on the flop, Villain has direct odds to call with any naked diamond draw. Why not give Villain room to bluff or continue with a hand we have absolutely crushed?

Not trying to price out a flush draw, trying to get him to commit before we get it in bad. What range are you putting him on anyway? You mentioned AK and AQ? Really?

Arriving to the flop I would assume his range is something like QQ, JJ, AK, AQs. Mix in some KK, maybe TT, maybe AJs. Do you think there are many other hands? KQs maybe?

So then what are we losing to on the turn that might take this line?

AKdd - maybe jams pre, maybe jams flop, maybe slowplays turn

AQdd - maybe jams flop, maybe slowplays turn

AJdd - probably folds pre, maybe jams flop, maybe slowplays turn

KQdd - probably folds pre, maybe jams flop, maybe slowplays turn

KK - probably jams pre

That's not very many hands.

For stuff we beat he has AdKx or AxKd that can conceivably take this line. He could even have AK no diamond. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see QdQx either. And I would never rule out total spew from a young opponent at a 1/3 game.

I think this jam can be much wider than only hands that beat us. Hero essentially opens himself up to this play with his flop bet. I think any AdX, KdX, or even QdX, any K. If I was V, I would not put Hero on AA specifically here. His flop bet looks like QQ or JJ trying to see if the K is bad for him.

Snap call, AINEC

Edit: much more interesting spot if we have the Ad....

I guess it just all comes down to what you interpret a preflop min3bet to mean. Personally I dont think people do that with big hands. They either raise a 'standard 3x' or even go ham and just blow the pot up because they dont want an ace magnet to crack their KK. In my experience I feel people min3bet pre as a gamble. They want to build a pot with a speculative hand in case it flops well. So when V commits on this kind of texture with gambly hands I just assume he must've hit.

This is a clear call. I would expect a flopped flush draw to crai a lot against your tiny bet. Also if he turns a flush I wouldn’t expect a donk jam that often, though it’s possible. AdKx and AxKd makes up a lot of his turn donking range, even QQ or JJ with a diamond might not want to face a bet.

Its a 4b pot and spr 1 on flop with aces, we shouldn’t be folding at any point.

So, if you are V, you bink your flush ott, and just ship it? What about Hero's flop bet makes you think he will call AI ott when the obvious draw comes in?

I get that these Vs are not great, but even the biggest drooler in my room would check this turn to let Hero bet again, and ship the river if the turn goes X/X.

Yes. If he has something like 89dd he doesnt want to see a 4th diamond peel so he just ships it. What else is he going to do, check and then lead river allin? What changes about his range giving hero a free card? Lets say river is a black deuce and then he jams, ok now what? Suddenly his range is finally the nuts but on the turn it's QJo with a backdoor jack high flush draw expecting to get paid?

Well thats interesting because everyone replying is saying this is an easy snap call so if V has a flush then he played it perfectly

This is a snap call because Hero's bet looks weak.

And yet you would fold, appears to me that V played his bluff perfectly.

If I open CO to $10 and BTN 3bets to $20... yeah, I'm fine with saying there is a lot of BS in that range. But this guy made it $70 OOP and then called a chunky 4bet. I would be surprised if he had a hand like 98s here.

And anyway, the spewier he is pre-flop, the more I am happy to call off here. We are getting almost 3-to-1 and AA is basically the nuts in a 4bet pot.

Well played pre flop.

I'd have bet more on flop, at least $300. V almost never has KK, but will have some AK, KQ, some AXdd, and perhaps even some non-believing QQ or JJ.

I think we want to get max value on the flop before another diamond, ace or king comes and kills the action. We also want to charge any draws he may have.

Can't fold turn. Gotta call and hope he's jamming to protect his KX. Wouldn't surprise me to see AKo with one diamond.

I'm cool with preflop.

We have an SPR of 1. I think if we had the Ad I'd be more cool with a smaller bet to suck in underpairs, but without it I'm not as jazzed. Think I just jam.

As played I think we're just forced to call it off at this stack depth. Could easily still be AK (with or without diamonds) or maybe even QdQx not knowing what else to do.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This

Bet more otf. If it's aces vs kings, it is what it is (not to mention if he has AKdd he's getting an odds gift).

Hard to appreciate how good flop bet is until you’re in villain’s shoes facing a 1/5p bet OOP in a <1 SPR pot when you promised yourself preflop you were going to snap fold on any K or A high flop

You have AA and a PSB behind on the flop, youre never folding

While I get this, if they grit their teeth and call a 1/5 PSB with an underpair 50% of the time, that's equivalent to calling the PSB shove 10% of the time. And meanwhile a shove is much better against reasonable draws (of which there are many).

Gclose?G

Might be a stupid question but why would it be more interesting if we had the Ad? In that case we're getting 2.8:1 to call off with the NFD on top of the overpair.

Doesn't even change that much combo-wise because the flop has the Kh and not the Kd.

Re flop bet discussion, does that really matter? The only hands where our sizing might make a difference is QQ with the Qd and AxQd?

I'm shipping the flop. The pot is massive, villain's tiny three bet gives me reasonable doubt that he does in fact have some top 4% pre range against which a small bet would print, and we have one pair on an ultra dynamic board. Not the time to get cute IMO.

Makes the BBs play more interesting, I meant. Less likely he has the flush. So what about us makes him think he can bluff us? Just makes the overall hand more interesting.