Am I overplaying hands MW?

Interesting spot. Sure we can be beat but we have to go for some value. Jam seems excessive, I’d go 175 or so. Kind of a puke spot if she jams but I guess stack off since she’s so spazzy.

She called a turn overbet with 2 overs in the HH. Do whatever will best get all her money in the middle, whether it's raise or shove

Why aren’t we betting turn?

yeah, checking the turn vs someone like her's almost criminal.

I would raise to 200 and hope she jams with Ax. We crush all her two pairs and she sounds like she woulda 3bet KQ so if she has 78 that's great for her.

I'm fine with preflop (I'm guessing we didn't expect this lol result).

I'm fine with flop.

I'm fine with turn as a lotta stuff got there. But against a passive calling station I think we can also bet/fold.

Kinda tricky river. Against most who don't massively overvalue I would go for a raise/ fold (as no one is re-raising the river without the nuts). If she opens AQo, does she open KQ? Would she often donk turn with straights? Actually might be a jam against someone who will call off with worse two pear.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Just a quick math check for GG:

If we give Villain all combos of JT/J9/T9, that is 6 + 6 + 9 = 24 combos.

If we give Villain all straights, that’s 32 combos.

This doesn’t include sets either.

We need to be able to discount straight combos before we want to shove for value here.

EDIT: Adding A9 is only another 6 combos, plus 99/55 is 6 as well. So my point still stands even when we count other 2 pairs.

But you're not adding the Ax two pear combos (let alone the lol lone Ax combos it seems she also shows up with, with the Axss being very reasonable). Also decent chance we hear from set / straight combos earlier.

I'll fully admit, my initial reaction was to be MUBSy of the straight combos. But against a special villain like this, I think if I play as good as I post (lol, never?) we should be going for the gold here.

Gforumaggrotard,ldoG

Seemed like a dangerous connected card to me that smacks her range. My plan was to see a brick river IP and call any lead.

Result:

If we're willing to put in one more bet after seeing this card, I'd rather put it in on the turn when this Villain can have a lot of stuff like QT, QJ, T8, even AQ, not to mention either flush draw, and will call to draw on the turn. Then we can check back river. Among other things this allows us to set the bet size now.

EDIT: Didn't see spoiler until after I posted this. Obviously if we bomb turn and get raised I'm happy to fold.

You can never be too careful.

and?

So she flat called with the nuts. Misplayed by her twice on turn and on the river. Maybe overplayed by OP.

And Ive been having these kinds of hands three sessions in a row now where I turn 2p+ MW or TPTK and own myself

I would have done the same as you. Vs block bet I think it's a clear raise and a cooler.

I would go smaller or check on flop because it is multiway.

I don't know if Vs like this have the concept of "block bet" but with those the idea is it's a bet/fold strategy to set your price for showing down a medium strength hand.
I'd feel better about betting turn than raising river

She sounds like a variance machine.

PRE - short handed, when a game is near to ending, against weaker opponents, who don't like folding, and over an EP limp, I'd like to raise bigger. At least $20, but I wouldn't think $25 was too large here. We want to fold out the BTN, and don't mind taking it down pre-flop / pre-rake.

FLOP - I could go either way by betting 1/3 pot or less, or 2/3 pot or more. Betting 1/2 pot doesn't seem to deny much more equity or define anyone's range much more than if we bet 1/3.

TURN - I think I'd barrel here, for 2/3 pot. Don't like checking back when the 2nd flush draw appears.

RIVER - as played, when we check back turn, we're bluff catching, or worse value catching, if that's a thing. When she can show up with any two, I'm not sure why we'd raise. If she's capable of bluffing, she'll just fold all her bluffs, and probably some worse value. She might occasionally fold some better value. But we shouldn't raise in the hopes she'll fold a set, or whatever. More often than not I'd expect to be beat if we raise and get called.

Not betting turn ~80-90 feels like a fairly big miss. This V is likely peeling flop super super wide, and is continuing to a turn bet with a large majority of those hands as well. Against V, I see this hand being worth 3 streets of value on a good number of rivers, basically any card that's not a K/Q/8/7. I'm even value betting flush rivers for like ~1/3 pot. Getting raised on turn is annoying, but I think it's a simple fold.

Raising river is definitely right, and I think the size you chose is solid.

and?

You rivered top two and raised her 3.5x about pot and lost a hand but seriously if it's overly bothersome for you then maybe you're not properly bankrolled because there was nothing wrong with the hand (ofc, vs a lot of better people that we know we can call but against someone who clearly over values ace high it's a fist pump raise otr to her especially when she donks out a 3rd psb otr. You crush all her aces and aces ups).

Don't casinos have rules against not betting/raising the nuts on the river?

Is it really that bad, though, against this V, who sounds like a bit of a calling station?

My reasoning for barreling turn was that there was another flush draw added, and the T only completes a few straights or 2P combos. We can still get value from her AX, draws, and worse showdown hands. I don't like giving up the betting lead to an opponent who is likely to show up with any two, and very likely to bet river, putting us in a spot where we really don't know where we are.

If we bet turn and she jams, yeah, I probably fold, but if we bet, she just calls, and checks to us on the river, we can just check back. If she calls turn and leads river huge, that'll suck, but I think we can make some exploitable folds there.

Not in cash. I've lost count of the number of times I've heard "do you want to just check this down" on the flop.

I've heard of rules in tournaments, but even then good players don't like them because there can be more value in just calling to force the other person to show what they had.

You would have to assume that people that play in these games understand what the nuts is first....