Am I crazy?

River bet is too big. Our hand is good enough to b/f 3 streets but this sizing on the river is too much.

Seems fine

Line looks OK in general.
River sizing seems excessive unless you know villain will stick around with a lot of worse pairs. With TPTK I'm not always going for a bet/bet/bet line, I would mix in some checks on turn or river. Particularly when the board pairs villain adds hands that beat you to his range. An opponent that calls with worse 3 streets either has TPGK, is too sticky or is bluff catching.

You line seems good. Like others said, river is a little big. I think since the turn made the board rainbow and paired it, it's going to be hard to bet the river big and get him to think you bricked a draw. If you did want to go on the bigger side, maybe like 140. I personally would go 125.

I think you could size up a bit on the earlier streets when lots of stuff is just not folding and you are mostly good.

Then you can make a smaller river bet, esp relative to the pot and win the same.

However, that's just a small adjustment, doesn't seem like a bad hand.

100% agree, i’m also mixing it up but mostly I think it’s also Villain dependent

In hindsight, i think b/b/b line is fine but smaller river bet (cause I’m trimming most of his range that I beat w this bigger size), and then b/x/b line is the one where the river bet sizing should be big.

Anyways, results don’t really matter but I guess I just got lucky because Villain didn’t know how to extract max value since he called and showed QJo

What hands did you think were going to call a b/b/b line that were worse than yours? It is an old cliche, but everyone puts an unknown raiser on AK.

I would have checked the turn. The reason the villain didn't punish you is that he had to be concerned about you have a FH, which as certainly in your range.

I would have checked the turn. The reason the villain didn't punish you is that he had to be concerned about you having a FH, which is certainly in your range.

river sizing too big, flop sizing too small

I don't think your line is terrible. It's a little thin to bet that big on the river, but V could have some worse Kx.

I'd wonder about our table image. If we've been aggressively betting for value, going for thin value, and bluffing, a lot of rec-fish will take defensive lines with big hands, and just check-call the whole way. Once something like this happens, I'd take it as a signal to dial it back and start mixing in some check backs on turn or river.

1. I do agree with the x on turn vs most people, but vs a splashy live rec i’d rather go 50/50 with the freq of bet vs x.
2. Yes, river sizing is too big, now I know, but also is the difference in EV that big on betting 140 vs 200?

Maybe I just don’t know how to play poker anymore ��

And also I have to say that I mainly play NL200 online, and I do have this weird tendency of considering live recs to be way weaker than the ones online, I think this might be the main reason why I went with that size OTR.

That’s a good point, worth mentioning that in that 1hr he saw me 3betting a couple of times, also 2 showdowns where I turned a hand into a bluff and one where I had the nuts.

Yeah, 9 hits his range a lot. A bunch of J9 and Q9x hands improved.

Check turn.

As played, bet 1/3 pot on the river. No reason to bet big, he has all the possible nuts.

I'm fairly aggro, and will often go bet-bet-bet with some thin value. It's fairly common for my opponents to check to me on the river, and if I check back, they'll say something like, "Aww, I expected you to keep firing."

I have to remind myself sometimes to slow down and think before betting three streets with TPTK, especially against loose players defending their blinds.

Agreed. Saying to check turn against a rec is results oriented imo.

Yes, he could have a 9 but it's extremely hard for him to have a flopped set.

If he has Q9, he has Kj and maybe some random suited kings. This applies to a reg too, really. I assume we are not folding to a reasonable CR. I don’t think a lot of 2/5 regs are like, taking 88 and going CR turn shove river trying to rep a 9, even if that's a good play.

I'm not sure it is as we have 100% of KK, TT, QJ and more 9s than he does.

IDK that he should really CR the river even to such a big bet. Probably in theory, but maybe not practice.

Checking the turn is a solver-based decision because that card improves the opponent's range and gives him a significant nut advantage.

People way undercall b/b/b lines so id check turn or river here wider than normal exploitatively. (Whether or not the “correct” line is 3 streets which seems marginal) Which by the way ought to be coloring you opinion on whar you should be doing with hands like 76dd here (bet bet bet)

This is a 3 way pot. We can glean info off the solver move, but people are more inclined to just check fold third pair multiway. Not saying its irrelevant but no there isnt a solver answer here and your simplification adds a massive grain of salt to the solution.

Agreed, this is generally better against passive players.

I was wondering if anyone else wanted to put in two bets post flop, given the coordinated nature of the board.

Preflop is _maybe_ bad, with reg. in BB I'd normally go 15 but with SB calling too wide I might size up anyway.

Flop sizing seems bad, would go bigger when there are a lot of hands with a Qx or Jx that SB is calling. QJ/T9 is obv. in range though. It's not like we auto bet this a lot, esp. with BTN range.

I would mostly keep firing on the 9x turn, maybe slightly bigger but random half pot isn't that bad.

River slight overbet is kind of hopium, esp. as we've been assuming we are often vs. a range of all of those mid draw hands that are crushed by Kx and have no more cards to come. Would probably bet a third pot on the river, or maybe even check to see wtf he had.

If it's been 350 hours and you're running horrible then it's a you thing, not a running horrible thing. Figure out what's going wrong.

in terms of the 10k folks, not buying it. You can be a winning player in general and still not make enough to cover rake and tips. Let's say they average 10bb per hour, that's them sitting in a card room for 50 hours a week. That's more than a full time job. It's really unlikely they're reliably ever making that.

River you block the hands you beat and unblock the hands that beat you so why bet? You think he calls this with kj kq?!

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