5/5 AJ on JT8 board. Bet sizing question
~$750 effective
V - unknown recreational player.
UTG+2 V calls, Hero on BU raises to $25 with A♦J♠, V calls
Flop($60) J♥ T♦ 8♠
x, Hero bets $25, V calls
Turn($110) 4♣
x, Hero bets $150, V calls
River($410) 2♥
x, Hero AI for $550
Do you like that line against a fish?
My thoughts: Once he called the flop and the turn, his range is capped.
4 Replies
No
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Meaning he has either a straight draw or one pair that you beat, yeah? If that's the case, aren't all of the former and most of the latter folding to this overbet?
If you have a read that he's a calling station and just always put you on AK here and calls with any J or even T, sure. But if he's the average fish, I don't think they make enough calls here with hands you beat to make this the right play.
I think around $200 gets called from lots of hands you beat (KJ, QJ, JT, T9, possibly even 98), while allowing you to fold to a raise (bc a raise from a fish is never a bluff here).
Checking is also an option against a fish who is a little more aggro than average. It might induce lots of value-owning with those same hands above that you beat, as well as bluffs from missed straight draws (not to mention saving you money when he does have two pair or a straight, since I doubt the average fish is over-betting pot on the river with their value).
PRE - looks fine.
FLOP - looks fine, but I might go bigger when HU and IP against a rec, seeing this draw-heavy board that hits a lot of rec-fish limp-calling ranges.
TURN - looks good to me. I like the over-bet.
RIVER - nope, I don't like it. Once V calls our raise pre, our 1/3 flop c-bet, and our turn over-bet, I'm wondering what he has that we can beat and that will call a big river bet. Against a complete unknown, I might check back here. If I bet, I'm only betting around $175 or $200.
His range probably isn't as capped as you might think. He might not raise 2P for fear of being beat by sets and straights, or he might feel fine letting you do the betting for him.
I don't like to assume our opponents can hand-read or that they'll fast play 2P/sets on boards with the possibility of straights or flushes.
TPTK is a good hand, but probably not good enough here to bet big on the river after our turn over-bet.
~$750 effective
V - unknown recreational player.
UTG+2 V calls, Hero on BU raises to $25 with A♦J♠, V calls
Flop($60) J♥ T♦ 8♠
x, Hero bets $25, V calls
Turn($110) 4♣
x, Hero bets $150, V calls
River($410) 2♥
x, Hero AI for $550
Do you like that line against a fish?
My thoughts: Once he called the flop and the turn, his range is capped.
Is he unknown or is he a fish? I get that a lot of low stakes are, but not sure we should default assume that.
I do like bet, bet, bet with this run-out, but not your sizing. Most low stakes are going to be loose-passive (though the fishiness is a spectrum), and may well call you down with AT, or a weaker Jack.
I bet 30 flop, half pot turn (and fold to a raise), and half pot river (fold to a raise).
