5/10: bliff catching or not?

Blinds are 5/10. My standard raise is 3bb + 1bb for each limper, hence 40 (4bb) in this case.

Hand looks to be played fine. Are you floating at all yourself with hands like AQ here? You are at the bottom of your range now, if I'm calling at all it's at a very low frequency.

I mean, from a hand class perspective

First lets look at your hand classez

1) youre never folding 9x obviously, but you very rarely take this line with it

2) youre basically always calling with Ax at minimum because you have a blocker to his Ax, but you wont have much because youll fold it a decent % otf, and bet it a decent % otr.

3) you are heavily going to be pocket pairs here. Even a hand like JJ would probably take this line pretty often

4) you have almost no air, you could call flop with something like KQ

Now lets look at his hand classes:

1) he probably slowplays 9x some

2) he probably checks back his pocket pairs at a very high %, maybe every time

3) not sure if he bets thin value with all his Ax or just the stronger Ax.

4) hes GOTTA be bluffing with 100% of his air here. I mean the issue is right here. Most players under 3 bet, and the hands you beat are the bottom of the 3 betting range. I think he will bluff you every time, but he might simply not have enough of this hand class in his range to be overbluffing.

So basically the first question is “can he thin value bet?” If he cant find a value bet with a hand like TT ever, then 77 and JJ are identical hands (except blockers), if he EVER shows up with TT or 88, its probably a fold, and you call with a biggger PP.

Second question is harder and is just pure speculation, which is “is he underbluffing or overbluffing here?”, its sort of a question of 3 bet preflop range construction, if he is 3 bet bluffing Axs heavily youre dead unless he 3 bet bluffs Kxs heavily as well (but i dont find people 3 betting hands like K8s) if hes 3 bet bluffing SCs heavily youre in great shape.

I also think if its marginal, Id call to see what hes doing, but my guess is his whole range just beats your whole range because youre both imbalanced and you just fold everything.

Seems fine. I’d rather fold pre but definitely folding river.

Pre seems fine to me.

Flop is a tough spot when he bets 1/2 pot. I'd think he'd bet 1/3 with the over-pairs he's repping, so I might read this sizing as two overs, or maybe some ace-wheel combo. I think we can call, and see what he does on the turn, but we need to proceed cautiously.

Turn check seems standard. Occasionally we can lead on a brick river, but I agree we're mostly just bluff catching at this point.

River is a terrible card. Don't like bluff catching with third pair here, when he takes 2/3 pot sizing.

Doubtful he's betting A5 this way. Most of his thin value range is probably just checking back. Sort of feels like A4 hoping to get called by worse AX, knowing we probably wouldn't check river with 9X.

Can't call. Just fold.

Yes, otf I am floating a ton of AXs with a BDFD.

Very detailed analysis.

I do not have a ton of 9x in general, and mostly I am betting river with those, true.
I have some AXs, with which I float the flop and which I check river quite often.
I have almost no air, true: maybe some KQs and some SCs which gave me a bdfd and bdsd otf.
However, most of my range otr is made of medium pp, and I assume V is aware of that.

On V's side: otr I assume he bets for value all his 9x (he's capable of 3betting pre with K9s for instance) and good aces.
Probably he checks back, or bets small, TT-KK.
On the other hand though, imo he arrives at the river with a fair share of SCs and suited broadways (with a BDFD otf), with which he "has to bluff".
Btw, if there is one live player who doesn't under-3bet preflop, that's our V .

You could x/r the river - I think his river betting range is Ax/low frequency bluffs, as I'm assuming he checks back TT-KK. Think it depends on your image/his play/how often people in these games bluff raise like this. I don't think people bluff here with the bcb line too often, but if you feel he does and you have a very tight image go for it. You can rep 9x/FH's and you can size it where you only have to win about 50% of the time to break even.

Or you can just fold if these factors aren't in play.

His flop bet is standard a small bet doesn't make sense and he could actually go a little bigger.

Your hand is basically indifferent here so it doesn't really matter but I would fold since if he's good he has a ton of Ax on this line. Because he can be value betting every single Ax here calling is likely losing slightly imo and you block some bluffs like 87/76.

TT is probably your best calling hand. (That's not an Ace).

A4 loses to A5 btw!

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A4 is the worst ax in fact

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Good catch. I overlooked that.

I still wouldn't call with 77. V is going to have way more AX than we do here. He could be bluffing with air, like KQs, but there aren't too many hands we beat that V would play this way.

Ok then i snap call.

I think calling is the WORST of your three options, while check-raising is by far the best. He’ll have a decent number of bluffs of course, but I do think a good chunk of his range is some light value—KK, JJ, etc, hands that are putting you on the exact sort of hand you have (in addition to the random Ace-high flop C-bets in his range). If you can’t pull the trigger on a jam I think you ought to just fold.

He’s just so unlikely to have trips+, while you can have a ton of them (that will very easily play this way—go for the River check-raise since V is so likely to bet the Ace), that it’s extremely hard for him to call a check-jam with worse than trips.