Adjusting Ranges for Promotions

Everyone playing MGM Springfield in July 😉

I considered limping some "high hand possible" hands EP, but that's what almost everyone is doing ... we don't win by doing what everyone is doing, and everyone with a clue knowing we are doing it too doesn't help.

Just play tight and take money from the fish bingo hands (but be aware the bingo hands are there, and people are almost 100% calling to the river for 1 outer straight flush draws).

NFD hands might overrealize, but I'm not sure it's enough. Esp. as Eg. A4s doesn't do that great vs. people playing 99+ hoping for quads.

At Christmas in July, I expect to see more players check-calling sets and trips on the flop and turn.

The rooms I frequent are always running high hand and bad beat promotions. I don't even think about them pre-flop, so they don't influence my pre-flop ranges or actions.

When the bad beat jackpot swells up, especially around holidays when people are off from work and the room is packed, I see a lot more players slow-playing big PP's pre, just hoping to hit. So I just try to adjust the ranges I give my opponents when it's obvious all the recs are coming in for the promos.

The week between Christmas and New Year's, not this past year but the year before, the bad beat got up to $600k. Near the end of the week, another reg and I were comparing notes on how many times we were shocked to see someone roll over JJ-AA on the river, after limp-calling pre.

I've probably logged 2k hours in the same room over the past five years, won the high hand maybe half a dozen times, and been in the room when the bad beat hit probably three or four times. The rec-fish have no idea how unlikely it is to make a high hand that actually holds up, even for half an hour, much less be involved in a bad beat (quad 6's or better).

Your chance of making quads by the river with a pocket pair is 1 in 122.5. Straight flush with JTs-54s is 1 in 490. QJs and 43s are 1 in 653. So those combos have a few extra dollars of EV that might make them a call if otherwise on the border. And when people are more passive these hands realize more of that ev.

For A2s it's a remote 1 in 1960. KQs 1 in 980. Play only if you normally would.

Aces full with Ax is 1 in 249, but that rarely holds up.

You'll probably owe taxes of ~20-30% and tip 3-10% so the high hand is a bit overrated. But it is a nice morale boost to win one

I think this is the right approach in general. Make your money against people chasing the high hand jackpot, than trying to optimize to win it yourself.

Yeah, this makes the game more like haunted house poker, you'll be surprised a lot... maybe think about pumping the brakes on your thin value bets or semi bluffs (take the free card or free showdown), but it does give you more freedom to see your draws to the river.

When the pot gets larger, as it will if you raise preflop and v bet, usually the benefit of betting outweighs the ~2% chance of making your quads or whatever.

There are still some situations where you would check and go for river value but you would probably do that anyway. I.e. AQ on Q66-Q turn where your opponent likely has either a 6 or pocket pair under the Q.

Yes, most definitely this.

That week I was talking about, I had a few really bad sessions, constantly running TPTK with ATs/AJs into over-pairs that limped in pre. If I was aware of what was going on, the adjustment would have been to slow down with 1P/2P type hands, and not bet as thin for value, but play more draws, instead of over-folding them.

I just won my first high hand jackpot. I raised with JJ, a short stack went allin for 45xBB and I called. Think there is a reason I haven't been winning it and won it that way. I have been trying to get value for my sets and not playing all those suited gappers and drawing with them.

It is probably really good for getting value with the nut flush. Hard for people to fold flushes any way, but no way they can fold 8s7s on 9s6s3cQs.

If the high hand is worth $500 and you have 2 outs with 1 card to come, your high hand equity is worth about $22. Since the push gets called often anyway, it probably shouldn't be a significant factor.

If it is late in the half hours and you have AAA or KKK and the high hand is less than kings full, then you have 10 outs to a likely high hand, so the high hand equity might be significant. However, it still might not be worth losing value and letting opponents draw cheaply.

In this specific promotion, the high hand is worth $876 on average. There are 325 envelopes worth a total of $285k. I only had one out once though, so the result is basically the same since my high hand equity is worth $17.50.

Good reminder of how difficult it is to hit these promos though, and how they shouldn’t really affect your play too much.

The main adjustments will be with how the loose passive fish play. If they limp/fold a lot I would try to iso to steal the limps alot with a more polar range. If they limp call a lot I would iso a very linear range, something like A9s+, AJo+, 88+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs. Give or take, depending on their ranges. Tighten up vs the super tight players that limp call AQ.

With lower pocket pairs I am mainly hoping to limp behind hoping to catch a deeper fish that will pay off if we hit a set. These will be your money makers vs these guys that will be hitting hands like top pair and aces up vs your set.

Case in point, yesterday I played a hand with a bunch of loose passive players. Straddle to 10, I limp behind 22 in SB, 4 to the flop, check flop, 1k effective villain bets 20 into 40, on AJ2, 1 call, we raise to 80, call, call. Turn T, we bet 250, v jams for 910, other v calls all in for 75, we call. River J, we scoop vs main V ATo and other v in for less has QJ. You're not going to get these spots super often but they are part of how you can achieve a massive win rate at 1/2. Step one here is looking for a very deep table.

Also just be wary of multiway strategy as there are bound to be lots of multiway pots in a loose passive room. Don't overplay hands multiway postflop. I would do a lot of small bets and checking, especially out of position.

Heater? I haven’t seen you post in a while and thought you might have figured out that you already know more than everybody who responds to hand histories and decided not to bother anymore but evidently that wasn’t it.

Was thinking like you a couple years ago, then didn’t win a small bbj of 12k because “i wanted to play like bbj didn’t exist and is just a nice bonus and I was going to raise there to prevent flushes from getting there”

I don’t recommend the all out craziness of playing like bitches like the kind of people we’ve seen that are way too focused on a ultra rare bbj, but I also pace down your view, and think is better to allow some wiggly room to let the table hit bbjs. Find your stance too steely.

Took a break, wasn't feeling it for a while. But Poker is fun to talk about, so here I am.

What stance? That I don't change my pre flop strat to adjust for promos, or that I give opponents credit for a stronger range when the promo jackpots start to swell?

The question was about adjusting ranges, which I took to mean pre flop, not necessarily post-flop play. The only thing I said about post flop is that I think it's good to slow down with 1P/TP type hands when opponents are likely to be limp-calling pre with some big PP's, and to chase more draws when those opponents aren't playing their big PP's aggressively.

From personal (expensive) experience ... if you normally play MGM Springfield and want to practice how you should adjust for the promo, just go play a bit at Foxwoods against a random table of 70 yr old limp calling players.

I'm in Philly, so I usually play at Parx or Rivers.

I'd rather have my nuts smashed flat with a wooden mallet than sit at a table of rando 70yo's who limp-call everything. Just kill me now.

No thank you, sir.