Concept of the Month: DalTXColtsFan's 2024 short-stacking primer

gobbledygeek: As I continue to study and practice, I continue to find your strategy of never raising before the hijack intriguing. It kind of flies in the face of my OP where I said, "only even consider a limp-reraise when very specific conditions are present" 😃

I'm curious, in the games you play, is there typically at least one raise on basically every hand? I'm asking because, though my sample size is far more LOL than yours, I see a lot of limpfests. If I were to limp, say, 88 UTG and get to see a 6-way flop for 1bb, I would consider that a triumph, but if I were to limp AA UTG hoping somebody would raise behind me and it ended up getting limped around, I would consider that an unmitigated disaster. How often do you limp in early position HOPING somebody raises behind you and end up seeing it get limped around? How do you play postflop in that situation, i.e. do you just grit your teeth and decide you're going to have to play 3 streets of "real poker" with the added challenge of being out of position? Hope the questions made sense.

I was about to ask you about limping and then folding to a raise, but it looks like you answered that question already when we talked about setmining and "nutmining" i.e. with ATs/KQs (you said you kind of evaluate your odds etc. and make a decision). Do you ever find yourself kissing your big blind goodbye an annoying number of times in a given session?

Hope the questions made sense.

In my experience, it is rare to find a LLSNL game that has more limped hands preflop than raised ones. The default myth is that LLSNL games are notorious limpfests, and while you will certainly see your fair share of lol 7 way limped pots, those hands may mistakenly lead you to conclude that the overwhelming majority of hands are limped. But instead of guesstimating how your game plays, I would encourage you to do what I did in 2017: simply do a little tracking project to help shed a more clear light on things.

For my tracking project, I waited for my table to become run-of-the-mill. Not an OMC table with everyone reading a book ("table change!"). But not a table with a maniac or two raising every hand either. Just a normal run-of-the-mill table. And then for one hour I kept track of how many hands were limped around preflop versus raised. And I did that for 10 straight sessions (full disclosure: I actually cut my last sample to just half an hour due to the table getting shorthanded). Sure, it's a small sample size, but it is still very likely to produce a much better estimate versus simply eyeballing things.

My tracking project produced the percentages of hands that were NOT limped around preflop: 74%, 71%, 70%, 68%, 65%, 58%, 57%, 43%, 47% and 40%. The overall average was 61% (also keeping in mind this included the fact that non-raisey me was sitting at the table). So about 2/3rds of hands are raised preflop at a run-of-the-mill table. I did a one off hour test a month or so ago and got the same result (more-or-less confirming what I was still eyeballing).

So, at least in my experience, even at the most passive of tables there is still an ~ok chance that someone is going to put in a raise preflop. Add a LAG or two at the table (let alone a maniac or hugely tilting player) and the chances of being in a raised pot becomes extremely high. But, maybe your room differs; I would highly encourage that you do your own tracking project to see.

And yes, sometimes your LRR attempt will fail and you'll be sitting in MP with AA in a 7way limped pot. This is *not* an unmitigated disaster; this is still *clearly* an +EV spot so long as you don't sit the bed postflop. Just take a breath. If you're sitting on 66bbs like I am, the SPR will still be a very playable ~10. If an overcard flops to your big pair then check/fold; easy. If you bink top set / a monster then work towards getting all the chips in; easy. Otherwise, yes, just play poker, with an eye towards making nitty overfolds with just TP / overpair. Folding the best hand in a small pot (which you absolutely will do from time to time) is a mistake, but it is a very small mistake; don't fret it. But getting in a bunch of chips / big percentage of your stack postflop with the worst of it is a big mistake. Very multiway pots are protected from bluffs (and even overvalue) due to the number of people in the hand, so if you've managed to grit your teeth and make that flop call multiway and the better is still leading large into multiple players on the turn, you should strongly consider exiting now. And you should almost never pay off 3 postflop streets of betting (as almost no one barrels 3 streets with just TP).

Good luck!

Gcluelessshortstacking/LRRingnoobG

Playing a short stack can be highly profitable. And note that the term short stack can be fluid. In some games 100 or 150 big blinds might be a short stack. Short is a relative term, as in shorter than average. As has been mentioned previously, a short stack strategy can be very easy to execute because you turn poker into a two street game. In fact, you can do even better, by limp reraising you can essentially turn poker into a one street game where you either fold or all in (or limp, but because that's only 1 or 2 bb you are essentially still just playing one street, the all in decision).

It is essential that a short stack play a very tight strategy. This is capitalizing on the tight short stack's advantage on the earlier streets. Your opponents, presumably, will enter the pot quite frequently with weak hands. You will enter with only very strong hands. This is the nature of your advantage. Ideally we will be at a table where players are raising on weak hands as well. That is ideal. You will always have loose callers, but if you can maneuver around loose raisers and loose callers you can get into situations where there is a lot of dead money in the pot, so you end up getting odds as a favourite. Note that you eliminate one of the strongest power moves of a loose player, which is forcing you into potentially devastating turn and river scenarios where you fold the best hand OR pay off a large value bet. Since you are already all in, you are invulernable to either strategy.

Make no mistake about it, this strategy can be very effective against your typical low stakes live table. It can also be effective at higher stakes. It is also a relatively low variance strategy in terms of absolute dollar amounts. When you are playing 300 or 400 big blinds deep, you can lose that much on a single hand. Either from a bad beat, a cooler, getting outplayed, whatever. But to do that 30-40 big blinds at a time requires a lot more bad luck, especially if you are playing well and getting the money in good most of the time.

However there are downsides to short stacking as well. The big streets are the most profitable in nlhe, as equities begin to diverge significantly. I can't tell you how many hands I've played in my life, on the turn, in position, with a vastly superior holding to my opponent, just printing money. Just last night for example I had a hand where I made the nut flush on the turn after calling 13 big blinds on the flop (we ended up 4 way to the turn). We ended up putting in 100 big blinds on the turn, three way. One of my opponents had a weak flush 94s, and the other had two pair. So I am dodging 4 outs between the both of them. Or say 91% equity on 3 way action, or an edge on my money of 173%. These situations are rare, but extremely lucrative, and you won't be able to take full advantage while deep. And the reciprocal hand would never happen because I would fold my 94s pre and would definitely fold aces up to that turn raise rather than chase a 4 outer.

I am happily jamming with the gutter.

Flopzilla is your friend. If you aren't already use it, buy it and learn how to use it. The Pro version does multiway ranges and equities quite nicely.

Preflop I would do one of two things. I'd either raise to an amount that leaves us with a PSB shove HU (so I'd go a little larger with our bet to about 13bb). Or I'd simply complete and more-or-less ~setmine. Personally, TT vs 99 is my line in the sand (raising former, completing latter) but it's close / whatever for me.

And I'd shove the flop as played. Can be ahead (but very vulnerable), can easily get called by worse, and if behind we have outs, especially for just a 3/4 PSB.

GcluelessshortstackingnoobG

I'm digging Flopzilla so far. It has a steeper learning curve than PokerStove, but about ten times the power.

death to short stackers. would love to see 100 BB minimums be more common.

2009 called; they want your whine back.

Well, unfortunately, a string of bankroll-impacting bad beats plus a string of unluckily finding the few tables at the casino where the shortstack strategy doesn't work has forced me to take a break from NL for awhile. I'm hoping to go on another LHE upswing and take some more stabs at shortstack NL in a few months. We'll see what happens.

I still enjoy DISCUSSING shortstacking, so I would like to open up a question for discussion: How long do you wait before "giving up" on a table and trying to move to another one? Or how long do you wait before abandoning the "default" shortstack strategy and playing an adjusted strategy?

I had 3 straight sessions where the tables were limpfests, but if anybody did raise, he was LUCKY to get one caller. Awfully hard to end up with a low SPR on the flop when you're sitting with 40 to 50 bb. And flop bets were RARELY getting called, like EVER, whether the pot was raised preflop or limped preflop - I unfortunately didn't keep a tally but it felt like at LEAST 3 times out of 5 flop bets were taking the pot down.

I shortstack on Global Poker quite a bit. The player pool's fold-to-3-bet% is about 80%, and the pool's fold-to-c-bet% is about 70%. That's regardless if the pot was limped, raised or 3-bet pre. I rarely see bluffs on any street and I make player notes the few times I do see them. So my strategy there is to enter a lot of pots with a preflop raise or 3-bet, and if that doesn't take it down, c-bet half pot basically 100% of the time. If the villain is still in the hand with me on the turn I know he has something and I proceed sensibly. A lot of the time the villain will check to me on the turn and bet the river when I check behind. I started calling those river bets "just to see". They were never bluffs. Of course, on Global I have $4 on the table instead of $100, and I'm playing 4 online tables instead of 1 live table, so it's a lot easier to play that strategy and ride out the swings.

Depends on the room, but I would most likely stay at a table for about an hour before deciding to move. Of course if I am in a room where I know the players style is more nittish OMC then I would leave much much quicker.

I don't know how long you have been playing and how often you frequent the same room, but you should be able to get a good understanding of the type of game you are going to be presented based on time, day, holiday, tournament series, etc.

You clearly put a lot of work into this guide and anyone who provides this much free info is a king in my book.

I think you're leaving a ton of meat on the bone, and I'd take this opportunity to study up on what the standards are and consider where and why you should deviate from that standard.

40-50bbs isn't really short enough to play a COMPLETELY different style of poker right from your initial opening range. You still have to bet all 3 postflop streets to get stacks in in a single raised pot, it takes a 4! to get stacks in preflop (which is still a pretty tight range in 9-handed poker all things considering), etc. And to the extent the game is changed, I think your style is kind of the opposite of the adjustments you should be making to having a short stack.

Good aggressive short stackers can be a huge thorn in your side, but I think you're making life pretty easy on your opponents tbh.

GG wrote, "In my experience, it is rare to find a LLSNL game that has more limped hands preflop than raised ones. The default myth is that LLSNL games are notorious limpfests, and while you will certainly see your fair share of lol 7 way limped pots, those hands may mistakenly lead you to conclude that the overwhelming majority of hands are limped."

In my own experience playing 1-2/1-3 in the past 12 months in multiple cities, tables are more likely to be limp-fests than "raise + 1-2 callers."

Excellent, empirical proof that short stacking is a bad strategic decision. Thank you for your contribution.

If I’m at a bad game I will immediately request a table change and will do so until I find a good game. There’s nothing wrong with table hopping if the goal is to maximize profits.

If my table is obviously horrific compared to other tables, I'll put my name on the table change list ASAP. If there aren't many tables going and they all look about the same, I usually try to gut it out at the one I'm at unless there are obvious better choices. But sometimes there just ain't a whole heckuva lot going on and if you're attempting to get in a session you just have to grin and bear it as best you can. Last night I squeezed in a session and by 5:30pm we were down to 2 lame-ass tables, where mostly I just try to tread water as best I can.

I'll admit I don't really ever abandon my overall strategy at all in any game I'm sitting in, simply because I believe it is an ~ok baseline strategy for me and my limited skillz set for most table lineups.

GcluelessNLnoobG

$1/$2 table

UTG+1 is a young asian male with about $800 in front of him.
MP and CO have called quite a few hands preflop. Few hands have gone to shodown so hard to assess their postflop tendencies. I don't remember their stack sizes but it was at least $200 for both of them.
I'm in the SB with about $55.

UTG+1 raises to $15, MP and CO call.

What is my shoving range here? AA-JJ and AK for sure, but since I'm so short, do I add any hands to that range?

As played, I had AA and shoved. UTG+1 looked really annoyed and folded. MP and CO folded.

Next hand, UTG+1 is now UTG, the other two have shifted one position as well. Same action, I'm now on the button with about $90 with AK.

The only reason I'm even HESTITATING here is that my shoving two hands in a row may look like a bluff and be more likely to get me called. I'd rather everyone just fold when I have AK. I'm also not completely sure whether or not UTG is positionally aware. He doesn't seem to be, I mean the hand before he raised something from UTG+1 he didn't want to call a $55 shove with, so he probably isn't. As long as nobody has AA or KK (and there's no reason to believe anyone does) I'm flipping at worst here.

Seems like just as easy a shove as the previous hand, yes?

This is a completely solved spot, and to the extent that the player's diverge from equilibrium it is very easy to adjust from there at these stacks. Anyone in any of the tourney subs could answer this in the bat of an eye.

I haven't studied these spots in a while so answering will only serve to embarrass me, but just going off the top of my head:

I think you can shove 2/3s as wide as the strongest player's range, which is likely the original raiser here. (Idk, maybe it's top half). So if they're opening a somewhat standard 12% range (both standard for a bot in that position and for a loose-passive in general), then you'd shoot for (I guess) 8%.

Without having studied AIPF hand rankings in a while, I'd think that range would be roughly AJ+/ATs/66 (minus AA). Idk, maybe KQs goes ahead of 66. I would not shove AA.

Even if the above is wrong in several places (and I'm sure it is), this is at least a template for how to think through these spots.

So I kinda went easy on you the first time I responded in this thread, but rereading it, I don't think I made it obvious enough how much I implore you to actually study the game you're playing. Get out the calculator app, and PokerStove, play with some charts editor, etc.

Maximizing EV in 40bb- poker is a pretty straightforward, no-frills endeavor, and (respectfully), 9 months later it seems like you haven't cracked a single book open or run a single EV calc.

I would shove AK very happily here, even if it’s your second shove in a row. There is nothing they can do about it but have a hand. Sometimes you get called by worse.

You have only 55$, easy shove with 77+/AQo+/ATs+/KQs
You're losing money playing so tight.

Youve gone busto short stacking, and are asking if you should shove more than 3% of your hands? Thats a major red flag that you simply arent a winning player playing the simplest possible form of this game, and your question shows you have absolutely no concept of how to play anywhere near properly.

I think its time to find another game to play, like… one that isnt for money.

1) anyone can write a guide
2) if you want shortstacking advice GG has 37k posts you can look over
3) there are multiple different ways to play short successfully