2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
I'm definitely taking the L to start the cycle if I'm wrong here which obviously is a big shot now given Obama is saying he should reconsider. Pretty much the only person other than his family who may convince him to step aside.
I do think if he didn't get Covid he intended to stay in. Remember the price was 1.40 after Trump got shot at etc
Luckily only have a unit on and nothing too insane, wanted multiple units, it is what it is now, I just hope the Ds don't nominate Harris if they do replace Biden although I fully expect they will
[QUOTE=SwoopAE;58648251]
I do think if he didn't get Covid he intended to stay in. Remember the price was 1.40 after Trump got shot at etc
/QUOTE]
covid is a nothingburger. lol at that being the actual reason. it's the continued pushing of dnc powers and donors. covid didn't amplify that.
I'm definitely taking the L to start the cycle if I'm wrong here which obviously is a big shot now given Obama is saying he should reconsider. Pretty much the only person other than his family who may convince him to step aside.
I do think if he didn't get Covid he intended to stay in. Remember the price was 1.40 after Trump got shot at etc
Luckily only have a unit on and nothing too insane, wanted multiple units, it is what it is now, I just hope the Ds don't nominate Harris if they do replace B
What does covid have to do with anything? Let’s say he’s fine in 3 days. Does this just show he’s old and too susceptible to getting sick? That makes no sense. This is their way to hide him and get him to drop out.
What I'm hearing:
-Biden w/d announcement speech being prepared atm, most likely out Sunday;
-Biden will NOT resign POTUS;
-Biden will NOT endorse Kamala (at least initially);
-Open convention w/ Kamala and 3 others;
-Super delegates will not be allowed to vote on 1st ballot;
-Kamala now vetting 4 running mates, including Bashear, possibly Shapiro.
If all this were true I think Whitmer has a huge chance of getting the nom.
mind mentioning where you're hearing that?
local hotdog vendor
I wouldn't mind except some would bash me for getting info from supposed "far right" sources.
the critical piece in there is open convention with 3 others, and that's not an absurd take as it's been floated by big voices in dem community, so would be curious the source if you're willing to share
think biden NO 83c is still +EV, but probably a better bet at this point is Kalshi # of debates market where you can get 85c NO on 1 debate. if biden is somehow nom he would be under immense pressure to complete the second leg, and if there's a new nom how would there not be at least one additional debate. NO on 2 (47c) and YES on 3 (29c) also looks juicy (like a hotdog) given the likelihood a new candidate enters the ring. i think 3 prez debates in sep/oct is the standard but there is no option for 4 and it might be reasonable to assume trump will not agree to 3 more given the june debate.
Seems like its just from this tweet
That's it. Not sure what "multiple sources" mean, but I'm inferring these are not from a single source.
Like all other bits of information, take it FWIW.
biden is still trading at 20c so maybe he has an ace in his sleeve we're not aware of, such as murdering any political rival under the new protections afforded by the supreme court for official acts
Interesting point from the polling data that Democrats are using to force Biden out. Of all people, Harris should have known about the president's mental fitness. This gives reason to pick a new nominee from someone outside the current White House.
Top Democrats Prepare for Campaign Witho...
The data, which was based on voter surveys compiled by Democratic firm Blue Rose Research and viewed by The Wall Street Journal, shows Biden losing not only all the swing states, but also behind or even in New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia and Maine. It shows the president leading by only 2.9 percentage points in New Jersey.
A major concern for Democrats up and down the ballot is the fact that half of voters, including 28% of those who backed Biden in 2020 and 52% of swing voters, believe that Democrats in office have been lying about the president’s mental fitness. The report says voters are likely to view Democrats’ defense of Biden as dishonest by a two-to-one margin.
Though the data, which was shared widely with Democrats in recent days, found Vice President Kamala Harris performing better than Biden against Donald Trump, it also shows that Republican attacks suggesting Harris wasn’t honest about the president’s health could be effective.
biden is still trading at 20c so maybe he has an ace in his sleeve we're not aware of, such as murdering any political rival under the new protections afforded by the supreme court for official acts
I never rule anything out, I only need a price to make it worthwhile.
Might be reasonable to avoid getting close to his pet dogs.
Morning Consult poll released Monday reveals 34% of dems believe Trump faked his assassination attempt.
I guess we've been over valuing Trump win equity from that event.
if a newsmax reporter gets the scoop on biden dropping out i'm going to seriously reconsider and re-evaluate whether or not political betting is something i'll ever be profitable in going forward
it would definitely boost him in the polls, no way trump beats michael corleone who tried to play straight but got dragged into violence
There is free money and massive EV plays on Bovada for the Republican National Convention if anyone plays there.
Will Trump mention in his speech:
MAGA -1400. Free money (MAGA is the title of the Republican Platform)
Seal the border -125. Free money (this is a major platform item and SEAL THE BORDER is in all caps)
A nation in decline +200. Near free money (this is prominent in the platform and also in all caps)
Fight. Fight. Fight +300. High EV play at +300 (this will become a catchprhase)
These all hit my man, thanks!
I'm definitely taking the L to start the cycle if I'm wrong here which obviously is a big shot now given Obama is saying he should reconsider. Pretty much the only person other than his family who may convince him to step aside.
I do think if he didn't get Covid he intended to stay in. Remember the price was 1.40 after Trump got shot at etc
Luckily only have a unit on and nothing too insane, wanted multiple units, it is what it is now, I just hope the Ds don't nominate Harris if they do replace B
not sure if you are serious on your covid statement?
that is completely irrelevant
biden back up to 25 cents
i'm thinking if insiders drove it to the 8 cents or whatever it was yesterday, it would stay down there
i'm strongly considering aping back in
