Second Nuts on the Turn, Bluff River?
Live 5-5
UTG [Hero] raises to 10 with QdQsTd7h (2.5k stack)
UTG+1 folds
MP folds
HJ fish calls 10 (2k stack)
CO folds
BTN folds
SB raises to 45 (3k stack)
BB whale calls 45 (2k stack)
Hero calls 45
HJ calls 45
SB is a new player. I have no reads on him.
Pot 180
Flop Kh Qh 2s
SB bets 180
BB calls 180
Hero calls 180
HJ folds
Pot 720
Turn 5d
SB bets 720
BB tanks, tanks some more, tanks some more, then folds
Hero calls
Pot 2160
Hero has 1555 left
River Jh
SB checks
Hero?
11 Replies
Your 7h blocker is not that relevant as he’s been repping big cards the whole hand. I would check with some showdown value.
I'm going to be that guy: Fold pre.
Edit: Just don't open this hand. There is a whale in the blinds and a fish IP but still the hand isn't good enough. It's close but not quite there.
river bluff looks good
I think pre is fine.
I think this spot is less good for Hero than the recently posted TT66-hand, but I think I'd still bluff with one heart. You won't be winning many showdowns and the times you would it doesn't matter if you bet or check.
You can make an argument for folding the turn - SB is potting 4 way OTF, and then potting the turn 3 way effectively looking to call it off. Came up with this range - seems to be accurate unless the opponent is a maniac/overvaluing bare KQ/AA. If you throw those into the equation you are now 64% and should just jam the turn.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - KhQh2s
PLAYER_1 QdQsTd7h
PLAYER_2 KK,AhTh,AhJh,Ah9h,kq:hh,kqt9,kqjt
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
QdQsTd7h|37.9669%|37.7252%|0.4835%|226351|2901|
KK,AhTh,AhJh,Ah9h,kq...|62.0331%|61.7913%|0.4835%|370748|2901|
[/table]
You can make an argument for folding the turn - SB is potting 4 way OTF, and then potting the turn 3 way effectively looking to call it off. Came up with this range - seems to be accurate unless the opponent is a maniac/overvaluing bare KQ/AA. If you throw those into the equation you are now 64% and should just jam the turn.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - KhQh2s
PLAYER_1 QdQsTd7h
PLAYER_2 KK,AhTh,AhJh,Ah9h,kq:hh,kqt9,kqjt
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties H
My gut was telling me he had top set and that I should've folded the turn. But I thought it would've been sinful to fold a hand this strong without any reads.
For what it's worth, my solver says jam turn 44% of the time, call 44%, fold 12%.
Why r u minraising pre?
My gut was telling me he had top set and that I should've folded the turn. But I thought it would've been sinful to fold a hand this strong without any reads.
For what it's worth, my solver says jam turn 44% of the time, call 44%, fold 12%.
I don't think the solver is applicable in a live 5/5 game - my guess is based on stack sizes here the average player in a 5/5 is going to be stronger than solver ranges on the turn here, especially given these stack sizes. I don't think he ever has a hand like Ah9h - who knows even what people do with say AhTh given it's 3 way and stacks are awkward on the turn. If this was HU things change dramatically I just think 3 way he commits to the turn with these stacks he's pretty nutted. Maybe this is a better sim - the problem is most of his KQ combos contain other draws.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - khqh2s
PLAYER_1 qdqstd7h
PLAYER_2 kk,kq:15%,ahth,ahjh
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
qdqstd7h|36.5068%|36.2500%|0.5137%|217500|3082|
kk,kq:15%,ahth,ahjh|63.4932%|63.2363%|0.5137%|379418|3082|
[/table]
I'd find a lot of tight folds on turn vs unknown, especially since BB tank fold increases the strength of SB range. Even flop call can feel gross given how the rest of the hand will play out, and Hero really dislikes having the t in hand.
Checking back river as played. Too much showdown and too many check-calls from villain with stronger hand.
I'd find a lot of tight folds on turn vs unknown, especially since BB tank fold increases the strength of SB range. Even flop call can feel gross given how the rest of the hand will play out, and Hero really dislikes having the t in hand.
Checking back river as played. Too much showdown and too many check-calls from villain with stronger hand.
My thoughts on the flop were, "F. He 3-bet pre and bet pot into three other people. I guess I'm paying off top set unless the board slows him down."
