1/3 raised while i have terrible image and V is talking
Hero covers, been playing super active and aggressive especially pre. 2 hands prior i 4 bet with KK, bet Axx flop, check called a jam ott and took it down. Last hand i raised over a few limpers from SB and everyone folded and V said “wow i see weve got a table bully”
V MAWG $475 deep, seems decently competent for a 1/3 player, not scared money anyway.
H raise btn $15 KTo V calls SB
Flop ($30) Q95ssd, v thinks for a split second and checks, so he has something, i check back
Turn Jd, v bets $15, hero $75, “arrggggh” followed by a snap call and a blind river check
River ($180) Qd, on hero due to blind check, hero $75, V $210, H ???
My thought process is he doesnt have dd because he had something on the flop, could have QJ Q9, probably doesnt play Q5. Didnt get the feeling his “arrrggghh” was overacting with 99/55 either?
I don't think most players who fit his description would raise w/o at least a flush on a paired board so I'm folding otr but could we have just checked it back? Once he calls the raise ott I would think he's got more than just Qx (a pair and a BDFD or two pair that might of filled up, or even slow played sets vs a wide blind stealer).
I don't think most players who fit his description would raise w/o at least a flush on a paired board so I'm folding otr but could we have just checked it back? Once he calls the raise ott I would think he's got more than just Qx (a pair and a BDFD or two pair that might of filled up, or even slow played sets vs a wide blind stealer).
+1
I think big river raises are so rarely bluffs at low stakes we can mostly ignore that (assuming we've never seen him do it), so the question is does he do this with say KQ. My guess is we can mostly discount that, and put him on flushes or boats. So it's just a sigh fold imo.
Raising seems thin even with your image but could be ok given how little behind there is.
But calling probably best.
Also I would've raised turn bigger and I don't like your river sizing. Pot seems better.
In folding he has AQo
V's reactions OTT and blind checking the river seems like he feels like he's behind, at least before that magical river card.
I guess he's having QJ, 99, 55. He can also have KT to chop with you.
OTR I fold.
With the table talk, and with the pot being 330 with 135 to call, I think we have to make a crying call.
Nearly everything that played to the river got there, except spades. If we discount diamonds (b/c you thought he had something otf), we lose to QJ, Q9, 55, 99, JJ, QQ but beat all the combos of spades. Especially if we don't have one, I think we have to call based on the pot odds.
I'm kinda with Big though. This is razor thin value OTR. Does anything you beat call your bet?
I've noticed that for the most part after someone bets and calls a raise ott and then they immediately check dark, they're usually very strong trying to induce a river bet (but of course it's player dependent).
In the past I never quite understood why would anyone blind check (I still don't understand). The only exception was when I have a medium pocket pair hands OOP against an overly stabby player in a 3-bet pot. OTR I nearly blind checked, because with that board my hand was indeed capped, still I could beat AK.
Your observation is interesting. I need to collect more samples.
You have a “terrible” image?
From your description it seems you have a WINNING image. You are dragging pots and making good thin calls. The fish at the table should be afraid to get into pots with you.
Most importantly, when a bad player thinks you are bullying the table they are still going to wait for a monster to play aggressively against you. So if you think this river decision is close, that should push you more towards folding.
In the past I never quite understood why would anyone blind check (I still don't understand). The only exception was when I have a medium pocket pair hands OOP against an overly stabby player in a 3-bet pot. OTR I nearly blind checked, because with that board my hand was indeed capped, still I could beat AK.
Your observation is interesting. I need to collect more samples.
I would never do it, and just yesterday a guy checked dark and filled up otr and top trips checked back because of the 3rd diamond coming so he lost a bet by tryna look cool.
+1
I think big river raises are so rarely bluffs at low stakes we can mostly ignore that (assuming we've never seen him do it), so the question is does he do this with say KQ. My guess is we can mostly discount that, and put him on flushes or boats. So it's just a sigh fold imo.
Its not a very big raise, if he had gone all in idve snap folded. This was $145 into $330
You have a “terrible” image?
From your description it seems you have a WINNING image. You are dragging pots and making good thin calls. The fish at the table should be afraid to get into pots with you.
Yeah, i get what youre saying, maybe i shouldve provided more info, but i find i tend to write too much in these things. I had also shown down some bluffs. And one would think id be labeled a winner, but that hasnt been my experience at all. I play a very aggressive game, and so when im running hot i almost always get labeled as a maniac on a heater. They see me showdown something like QTs in a 3 bet pot, or see me triple barrel a gutshot with bdfd and they think im way out of line and bound to lose it all with 1 big misstep.
For what its worth (i didnt post this because it was after the hand), the guy said “awww, youre leaving??” When i picked up. Which seems to be the typical reaction.
Most importantly, when a bad player thinks you are bullying the table they are still going to wait for a monster to play aggressively against you. So if you think this river decision is close, that should push you more towards folding.
The scared money seem to become even more fit or fold otf, thinking that i just triple barrel every hand, but a guy like him loves to FPS call me down with bottom pair. Usually I go for thinner value against these guys (not that i think KT was crazy thin on the river)
Raising seems thin even with your image but could be ok given how little behind there is.
But calling probably best.
Also I would've raised turn bigger and I don't like your river sizing. Pot seems better.
I was torn between call and fold, didnt think i could jam. I sorta agree on the river sizing, part of why i was lost after getting raised is i felt like my sizing induced bluffs. If i had gone maybe $135-150, idve probably exploitatively folded to a raise, and i think the guy mightve hero called with third pair sometimes.
I've noticed that for the most part after someone bets and calls a raise ott and then they immediately check dark, they're usually very strong trying to induce a river bet (but of course it's player dependent).
In retrospect (didnt consider this at the time), my experience its a made hand (sometimes a strong hand inducing, sometimes a weak hand that wants showdown, but super rarely a draw). I agree prolly a B/f. I dont love the checkback you suggested, but gto seems to agree with you.
I think if i played it again id go $135ish and fold to a raise.
Results
Spoiler
hero calls, v has QhJh
Not a huge surprise.
Yeah i mean thats the one hand he obviously plays this way, so didnt really shed a lot of light otherwise, if he had shown 55/99/fd idve felt more like it was a bad call.
Table talk kind of implies he's bad and drawing a lot of conclusions over a small sample with no real data (and ignoring the actual KK data).
I think it matters a lot if you have Td, esp. with the flop read I think JdTd is very possible, the Kd is a bit less interesting but still might swing me.
I've looked but I'd disagree with you and spy.
I wouldn't bet this thinly when everything gets there, like on the turn you want him to believe his good top pair or two pair are great hero calls vs. the maniac ... but he "shouldn't" have good top pair hands and now he's either got a FH or he's worried you got the flush you were bluffing on the turn (you checked flop and raised turn).
QTs makes some sense, and might pay off but assuming AQ/KQ/Q8 are there enough seems like a big ask (maybe you have reads he doesn't 3bet AQ in SB vs. BTN? -- then it might be closer).
After the raise, what is he bluffing with and what is he trying to get you to fold?
I mean how capable is he that he's reading you for a straight and bluffing a bunch while talking implying he's bad.
Assuming AQ never raises before now but raises river for value when there's a straight a flush there ... nah.
Table talk kind of implies he's bad and drawing a lot of conclusions over a small sample with no real data (and ignoring the actual KK data).
I think it matters a lot if you have Td, esp. with the flop read I think JdTd is very possible, the Kd is a bit less interesting but still might swing me.
I've looked but I'd disagree with you and spy.
I wouldn't bet this thinly when everything gets there, like on the turn you want him to believe his good top pair or two pair are great hero calls vs. the mani
No idea if i had Td. I think he probably mostly 3 bets QQ+, im sure some AK JJ and he occasionally bluffs. I saw him 3 bet once and it was AA.
i think im only losing to QJ and KdTd (if i didnt have it blocked), prolly Q9. Maybe im overvaluing my flop read, but it tends to be very reliable. I dont think i need a lot of combos in order to call, not sure they are there though, it would be spade draws mostly, or J9, and KT chops.
Check back river. As played fold. Not sure what we’re expecting him to have that we beat.
You call because he's bad and you beat value simple as that.
I doubt you'd get a speech play followed by a blind check if he was sat on a draw - far too much chance you'd just snap check back on a flush/straight completing river card.
River is an interesting card - worrying that the backdoor flush came in but also value to be had from top pair hands. It's a real action killing card though and I'd probably let it kill the action and check back.
Does he turn JT (or J9) into a bluff? Debateable. Does he check-raise trip Queens? Again possibly but I'm not so sure. There's obviously a table dynamic which you have to take into account - on balance I'm leaning fold but it's close
Yeah, i get what youre saying, maybe i shouldve provided more info, but i find i tend to write too much in these things. I had also shown down some bluffs. And one would think id be labeled a winner, but that hasnt been my experience at all. I play a very aggressive game, and so when im running hot i almost always get labeled as a maniac on a heater. They see me showdown something like QTs in a 3 bet pot, or see me triple barrel a gutshot with bdfd and
What I'm saying is that "maniac on a heater" still counts as a winning image to these guys, and while they are thinking that you're bound to lose it, they're still going to tighten up and wait for a big hand to take it from you.
There's an old quote from Sklansky/Miller that is somewhat out of context but that I always think of in these scenarios:
"Do not imagine that he's thinking, 'Wow, that punk plays all sorts of trash. I think I'll play ace-jack against him for all my chips.' He isn't. He's thinking, 'I can't wait until I pick up aces so I can bust this maniac.'"
Similar logic applies here, I think.
I think you're interpreting all of his tells correctly. Snap check, feign weakness but somehow finds a raise, etc. Fish check dark to disguise the strength of their hand when they hit, usually done preflop setmining. I find his river check a bit weird because you can close the betting and he cant get any more value. Regardless I dont think I can fold a straight with the potential for him to bluff missed draws and/or valueown himself with trips. Thing is I dont really like your line though.
I'm still going to cbet this flop with a small sizing holding a gutter ensuring that he'll raise his sets. And on the off-chance I do decide I really want that free card and check back, im still barreling tiny with each consecutive street.
What I'm saying is that "maniac on a heater" still counts as a winning image to these guys, and while they are thinking that you're bound to lose it, they're still going to tighten up and wait for a big hand to take it from you.
There's an old quote from Sklansky/Miller that is somewhat out of context but that I always think of in these scenarios:
"Do not imagine that he's thinking, 'Wow, that punk plays all sorts of trash. I think I'll play ace-jack against him for all my chips.' He isn't. He's t
Agree with this completely for 90% of the 1/3 (LP) crowd. I think the wannabe pros strutting around with their backpacks tend to show up to make a REALLY COOL hero call against the maniac with bottom pair to tell their friends about, and thats the vibe i was getting. Who knows. I do a lot of thin river value betting and it seems to mostly turn out
Agree with this completely for 90% of the 1/3 (LP) crowd. I think the wannabe pros strutting around with their backpacks tend to show up to make a REALLY COOL hero call against the maniac with bottom pair to tell their friends about, and thats the vibe i was getting. Who knows. I do a lot of thin river value betting and it seems to mostly turn out
That very well might be true but here you got raised. He’s not turning that hero-calling hand into a bluff.
