ICM or not ICM in mid level turbo(ish) live MTT

+1 to all of this. Villain does look strong but I wouldn't entirely rule AQ out of their range which makes folding AKs impossible. AQs+ 99/TT+ off top of my head for a tight rec player nearing bubble going over 3x in EP so I think folding AQs and TT are reasonable but never getting away from JJ+ AK.

I think a good metric for if you can find a fold with AK preflop would be two questions- 1) can villain ever have AQ? 2) can villain ever have ANY bluffs? If answer to either question is "yes", you can't really fold AK.

Yeah i’d just go with it, 21 left is not close enough to consider folding AKs for 12bbs

Seems the big open is JJ a lot, could be AJss AQss, pairs 88-JJ. I would get it in may get a reluctant fold from him. Also not thrilled about MAYBE a min cash and coming back next day with a short stack.

I would jam here. My guess is usually JJ but it could be AK/QQ/TT a lot also.

The problem is that it happened to me in the WSOP mini main when I had 15 blinds and a woman opened to over 3x in UTG+1 and I jammed with AQo. She had AA and there it went. So I would look at opening ranges for this person and why raise sizing ramped up from 2.5x to over 3x. Ultimately I would call because we block AA and KK but moving forward I will likely fold AQ because of the sizing and the likelihood of KK/AK/AA (which occur less when we have AK but also we don't trail AK when we have AK).

Tried a simulation in HRC classic that somewhat resembles this situation: 10 player table, 5 ITM. Same effective stack size (=Heros stack)

If:
- We believe we don't have any fold equity
- We think villains opening range only consists of hands we're flipping or are dominated against: TT+ and AK
- We consider the possibility of any of the 4 players left to act can wake up with a big hand

... then we should indeed only call with QQ+

But this also would mean an absurdly tight player with an opening range of 3,5% from UTG1. Someone mostly considered with getting ITM. I don't see how we can make this kind of assumptions about a person we only spent a few hours with. Imho it would a require a lot more play and solid reads that this player never had anything less than AK and TT when he opened from EP close to the bubble.

If we instead put him on a range of 99+, AQo+, AJs+ and KQs (5,7%) and still assume we have no FE whatsoever AK is a call in my calculation. And this obv. would still be a very conservative estimation. In reality I believe that even tight, conservative players have some more hands that they will open with but fold to a shove.

I think it was Harrington who wrote in one of his books that the nature of AK is that it fares well against almost all other possible starting hands except KK/AA, but it's never a very big favourite either. A lot of it's value probably comes from the fact that with short stacks we'll often gii against other ace hands with worse kickers.

That means we have to accept that with stack depths under say 40bb we're often going to bust or get crippled with it. But the other and better side of the coin is that even more often we're going to have a real boost to our stack when AK gets the chips in pre.

Thanks Nit,

This is exactly what I was looking for.
It seems that without Fold Equity this should be a fold.

I doubt this can ever be a fold. I am with the All in group here. Sure there is ICM, but AK is a good hand, and we need to balance a min cash (which is far from sure) with the ability to make a good run.

definitely gii

That's not my interpretation of the simulation. We have to put UTG1 on an absurdly tight range - something like TT+ and AK to justify a fold in this spot. Even if he opens just 6% of hands this is an obvious call in my book.

- There are still 5 players - about 23% of the field - that have to bust before we get ITM
- You have a shorter than average stack of just 12 bb
- Levels are just 20 minutes, so quite soon your stack will get even shallower, thus reducing your fold equity even more.

On average you won't get dealt a better hand than AKs for quite a while. And its likely you need to push yourself at least once to get ITM if you fold this hand. It's quite likely you may be forced to do that with a hand that is at the bottom of your pushing range and will be in great trouble if someone behind you wakes up with a hand and call your push. Or you will be forced to call yourself in a spot less favorable than this and without the chance of villain folding.

Not an icm punt.

In live games, early position extra-large opens are often middle pairs -- 77-JJ -- and AK -- perceived as vulnerable and want to take it down pre-flop and narrow the field since only super-strong hands will call here given ICM pressure. Such hands will often fold to a 3-bet shove, but even if they are going to call you have to take the risk with AK. A lot of the time he'll have the same hand and at worst you'll be flipping. I go for it. (Had similar spot @ WSOP seniors ITM with ~60 left. I opened big with AK UTG, villain jammed with bigger stack from CO. I called and we both had AK.) Sometimes got to gamble.