turn bet problem

I think you can go either way ott. Fold now.

Pokeernut, you say that Villain is a reg but do not provide any other information. How can you know villain is a reg without have any additional info on how they play? I would imagine that the correct turn play in this spot is highly dependant on Villain's characteristics and also potentially how they view you.

I'm interested to undesrtand the reasoning behind this. I'm assuming you mean we only want to c-bet a polarised range on this flop texture given the pre-flop configuration, could you explain why?

Could you expand on this point? Specifically interested in how calling in this spot is required to protect against exploitation.

Calling protects our range so that BB can't print by raising all their bluffs (which would be very profitable if we fold all our OPs). So vs a good reg you wouldn't fold here because we want to veer towards GTO when they have enough (or possibly more than) recommended air hands. Overfolding would be giving them too much credit and diminish the EV value of this combo in this spot overall.

To get super basic that's just the pot odds vs equity. If they have bluffs we have to call sometimes to remain +EV. But that said, if you don't think the pool raises enough (and particularly vs our strong line) with anything less than 2p+ then we don't have to worry about any of that and can counter their lack of bluffs by overfolding.

As for the polairsed cbet point i'm not exactly sure i was reading the gtow sim :P

It's because this is a board we would check our middle strength hands a lot and bet our draw + strong, but vulnerable hands on. So we bet bigger to get 55(etc) to fold to our bluffs and for value/protection with our strong hands.

Thanks for taking the time to explain your thought process. Yes this makes sense. Intuitivley my assumption would be that this spot will not be bluffed frequently enough by the average "reg" in the games I play, in which case I see some merit in a technically exploitable fold. It's a strange spot though, as I would expect Villain to call turn a lot of the time with any hand that beats us.

Thanks for elaborating. I understand that the bet sizing follows from the polarised betting strategy, but I'm interested in understanding why we want to check our mid strength hands on this board in the first place. Is it because we want to pot control on a board were Villain can use a lot of turn and river cards to put us under pressure?

I appreciate everyone’s responses. I left the river out in order to get an unbiased opinion.

The river was the Kd.

I checked river and villain jammed with Q6ss.

My thinking could very likely be incorrect, however I felt more comfortable getting raised on the turn knowing that any player with a basic understanding of the game will know that a 10 is better for their range being the caller as opposed to the aggressor. Now, it is possible they’re going for value with 10x and trying to get more money in on the turn, however my understanding is most players would want to keep my bluffs in on the river if they do have a 10 and not try to blow me off my hand on the turn. With that said, if I go for three streets of value getting raised on the river is gross and I could Likely find a fold here (unless it’s exactly the river it was). Everyone’s input is greatly appreciated.

Checking with the intention of calling protects our checking range so villain can't just stab with impunity whenever checked to on this board given we'll have some hands that have such little equity will be check/folding. We can/should also mix in some x/r. It also makes us somewhat less vulnerable to bluff/semi bluff raises.

Imagine we have A7hh on this board and want to x/f and we have no x/c range. Villain has 55. Now compare the results of him knowing sometimes we have Tx of 9x when we check here to when we don't and always fold if he bets. Now betting is not such an easy decision for villain and we get to realize more of our equity over future streets.

I understand the concept of protecting our checking range, but I don't understand why this is the reason we only bet a polarised range here. If the flop were K82r, my understanding is that we should typically prefer a smaller c-bet size with a wider more merged range. However, for the reasons you stated above, we would still need to check many mid and even some high strength hands in this spot to protect our calling range. Is the reason for polarisation on T93s that we need to check relatively more of our mid strength holdings and therefore have none left in our betting range? I would of thought it had more do with betting these hands being inherently bad on this flop texture.

It's a bit of all the things we've mentioned. Mid strength Tx or a 9x is not exactly slam dunk value vs the many draws he can have IP anyway and as I said before it protects our marginal hands from being raised by the many semi bluffs he can have on this board.

I mostly check call t high board