A4JJ
1-2-5 plo. V in sb is a typical loose passive playing too many hands. About 800 eff
Hero in bb with A4JJ with A4dd.
Pre: Utg btn sb hero call
Flop (20) : JdTx5d
So we have top set nfd
Sb checks hero 20, just sb calls
Turn (60) : 3x
Sb checks hero 60, call
River (180) : Kx
Sb checks
Value bet?
7 Replies
nope. we can get some calls from other sets and kings up BUT
we have set + nut flush draw. of course our opponent is drawing to straight. and while AQ will usually donk river, Q9 will usually not.
Probably should raise preflop - sucks being OOP but this is a very easy hand to play and we have nut capabilities and most likely top set if we flop it. I would bet the river here - the K makes a lot of two pair hands. He could just put us on diamonds and make the call.
Don't raise pre IMO. The hand just misses way too often and OOP you're not getting free turns while this hand doesn't flop overpair that often meaning that you can not counterfeit two pairs. The pot is going to be bloated enough for nice x/r or lead with this hand multiway.
Flop is fine, Turn is fine.
Checkback. You're just running into way too many straights. I ran some shitty calculations and against a loose passive range the amount of Q9 straights here is stupid. You're also blocking top twos which is more relevant than blocking nut flush draw since NFD+ two pairs is quite rare holding. TT might a better value bet but still probably too thin.
I agree we need a much more robust hand than this to raise pre.
xb otr, doubtful villain raises any straightdraws otf/ott so they are all represented here
Check river.
Unless whale of all whales. Then Iām probably betting it.
