Did I miss value or should be lucky I sucked out?
Hi,
What do you think about the this hand?
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 5 players
UTG: $10.17 (102 bb)
CO (Hero): $10.73 (107 bb)
BU: $2.15 (22 bb)
SB: $13.00 (130 bb)
BB: $18.84 (188 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 8♦ 7♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to $1.12, Hero calls $0.82
Flop: ($2.29) K♣ T♣ 8♠ (2 players)
BB bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15
Turn: ($4.59) 8♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($4.59) 9♦ (2 players)
BB bets $3.45, Hero calls $3.45
Showdown:
BB shows A♣ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Eights)
CO (Hero) shows 8♦ 7♦ (three of a kind, Eights)
CO (Hero) wins $10.82
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Villain is a pretty straight forward tight aggressive player with 24% VPIP, 16% PFR, 9% 3BET after aprox. 100 hands.
In a not so reason hand I had seen him 3 bet pre, C-bet A-high flop and then go check, check on dry board to show down with JJ. Another hand villain opened MP checked on Q-high dry board, and then folded to donkbet on turn.
Possibly this could indicate I am not to get any value if I hit big. My main thought, however, was that I could steal with some aggression. My image at the point was very nitty, around 15 % VPIP and I had folded to some 3-bets pre.
Flop is not great, but very draw heavy, which would give me a lot to bet on for the turn. Floating here I think make sense. Or doesn't it?
The turn threw me off a little, in hindsight I definitely think I should bet here to get value from AK and protect against draws.
River completes for QJ, which I don't really put in Villains range.
In this spot I gave him AK, AA, KK, TT.
Am I missing out on value by just calling here? Do you think we can expect villain to call with anything we beat if we jam?
Any other thoughts prior to river?
7 Replies
If you suck out, suck out for the maximum. Bet turn, shove river.
I would fold pre almost always. I think turn check is pretty atrocious.
I think we can fold our hand preflop.
A call on the flop looks okay. We don't need to fold the pair with board on the flop.
I like a small bet on the turn to get a value from Kx+, QQ-JJ, ATs, Pair+Draw, etc, and shove on the blank river.
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this is a fold preflop. in this config ( COvBB) BB has more incentive to defend a wider range by flatting than 3B'ing and playing OOP.
This is villains likely range: 99+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo+ ( which is linear not polarized)
which means this hand will always lose to a bigger flush, put you in tough spots with 2pr ( as villain will always have all the straights) and just generally be quite difficult to play even IP.
as played:
you cannot fold flop.
you must bet turn, this board is too wet to give a free river card. if you had a boat ott then its different but your hand is quite vulnerable given the texture and villains range. If he range bets flop then you let his entire range see river for free. biggest mistake in the entire hand imo. preflop is a mistake too but it pales in comparison to checking turn.
Why are you checking turn?
Why are you not raising river?
What are you doing on the turn when you don't improve?
AKA, after you call the flop, how do you plan to win more than you lose long term?
As played:
I'm betting the turn for value.
I'm also raising the river for value.
Ideal line = raise turn, shove river.
It seems like playing suited connectors is costing you more than you are winning in 3bet pots.
Unpopular opinion
If the opponent at NL10 is restealing wide, I would prefer 4betting more as a bluff, rather than calling wider. Calling wider requires more post-flop skill (we need to make outr opponent fold enough without a made hand). 4betting does not require more post-flop skill.
I have no problem over folding spots I feel uncomfortable playing in situations where my opponent won't exploit me for doing so. But I will be learning how to play the spots I feel uncomfortable playing, so that I can eventually play them profitably.
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this is a fold preflop. in this config ( COvBB) BB has more incentive to defend a wider range by flatting than 3B'ing and playing OOP.
This is villains likely range: 99+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo+ ( which is linear not polarized)
which means this hand will always lose to a bigger flush, put you in tough spots with 2pr ( as villain will always have all the straights) and just generally be quite difficult to play even IP.
as played:
you cannot fold flop.
you must bet turn
Thanks!
Do you also advocate a small sizing on the turn bet? You are giving villain a very wide range and giving he is deep should we size up?
Why are you checking turn?
Why are you not raising river?
What are you doing on the turn when you don't improve?
AKA, after you call the flop, how do you plan to win more than you lose long term?
As played:
I'm betting the turn for value.
I'm also raising the river for value.
Ideal line = raise turn, shove river.
It seems like playing suited connectors is costing you more than you are winning in 3bet pots.
Unpopular opinion
If the opponent at NL10 is restealing wide, I would prefer 4betting more as a bluf
Villains river bet sizing made me give him AK, AA, KK or TT. I did not expect any calls from the former. You think we would? Or am i giving villain way to much credit for a premium hand?
I was planning betting turn on almost any card. The 8 threw me off and I guess i choked realizing I probably have the strongest hand and didn't want villain to fold.
Yeah, this is normally a fold pre for me, but giving villains tight fit/fold image, as well as my own, I thought I could give it a shot.
Thank you so much for input!
