A-A led into on flop
Is this just an easy fold or shove?
GG Poker - $1 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 77 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB: 243.72 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 88 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (UTG): 157.57 BB
MP: 54.18 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 124.69 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ A♦ 6♣ 3♦
Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 11.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 35.5 BB, SB calls 24 BB
Flop: (72 BB, 2 players) 4♥ 6♥ 7♠
SB bets 72 BB, fold
SB wins 67.5 BB
10 Replies
Yeh definitely fold - I think at 100 bb I would call it off, but at this stack depth just fold.
I am not folding.
The 3 and the 6 help a lot. In a 4b pot I’m not folding at this spr.
Either way we go broke, but SB donking is a lot weaker than check shoving.
Often expect to see quite a marginal hand that is happy to get a fold and not a monster.
Fwiw, 100bb eff gto calls off here with all AA combos. I dont think 60bb more changes much+we also have 63.
Seems like a reasonable range
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 4h6h7s
PLAYER_1 AsAd6c3d
PLAYER_2 hh,44,66,77,58,35,T89,7,67,64,74
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AsAd6c3d|32.5526%|31.2528%|2.5995%|187517|15597|
hh,44,66,77,58,35,T8...|67.4474%|66.1477%|2.5995%|396886|15597|
[/table]
The issue with this sim is he is heavily weighted towards high cards. Hands like straights have to be discounted and medium to large hearts become a larger part of his range.
Feel like we have more AhXh in our range, so not sure why villain would have many heart combos here. SPR is so low villain cannot expect you to fold, so makes sense gto says call but seems like a good exploifold spot.
Interested what your stats were.
V is a nit? Not sure nits raise call 3 bets that often HU OOP with a hand that smashes this board? Assume overpair + fd or NFD donk.
Side cards can just have us dead sometimes though. Tough spot. Flip a coin tbh.
