2024 Trading Thread

I'm thinking their future could really be like under armor with cheap product everywhere

In the last earnings call they talked about selling pairs of shoes under $100 as if that were a good thing

Their premium brand status is long gone, jordans as a brand have had their run, shoes getting relegated to the back of the footlocker while On's and Hoka are at the front

Maybe. I really like their products.

There are other things going on as well in the macro, the consumer is suffering from inflation and higher interest rates, the dollar has had a big move, which hurts them, because so much of their sales are international.

Earnings outside of tech have been very grim in general.

Once interest rates come down I'd bet on a return to growth.

Lululemon's share price is a disaster too, so the consumer is probably suffering a bit.

What I will say is every dip/major correction in Nike and Lulu since 1982 has been free money dropping from the sky.

Fashion brands are almost always ephemeral. Nike has had an unbelievable run compared to most.

Life is ephemeral, and never seems to go out of fashion. God planned it that way.

posting for bug fix

hi,Can i open interactive brokers account if my only income is from online poker? or this is a problem?

they don't care, they do ask questions about that stuff when you get onboarded but it's not to tell you know at all, i think it's about compliance

ok, thanks

I'm literally a janitor according to my IB profile

Kind of an interesting juncture in markets.

The NVidia bearish engulfing candle did work out. Personally, I wouldn't close my eyes and buy until it goes back down to the $95 support level. The Bulls will be hoping that if we get there, a healthy correction will have ensued and that then we are off to new all time highs.

The Bears will point to other charts off less quality names like Stellantis, Ryanair, Adobe, Salesforce, AMD, which made a new high, like the S & P and have crashed all the way back to their November 2023 lows and that eventually the S & P will follow suit.

If you have time take a look at a company called Innodata. They are getting a bunch of contracts from the top 7 tech companies to help develop Large Language Models. It only has 500 million market cap. INOD.

Why didn't you post that three months ago?

Is it time to buy Boeing? Things have been bad. Things falling apart mid air. But the whistleblowers are gone thankfully, got a new ceo. Might be a buy.

One news item not looking so good. They have this space vehicle thingy. Love the name btw "starliner" In a slight mishap, it stopped working couple of months ago, in space. Lost in spaceeeeee. They said no worries when it was two weeks in, but now at two months in... they are saying maybe spaceX needs to save a couple lives. Not really Nasa's place to bring in another company on this. Now I'm just spitballing as a potential buyer here. Pounding the desk, got my hands ready to buy.. Shouldn't we let these two nasa guys go off into the sunset. Dragon pulling up is bad optics.

Boeing is going to have issues with existing contracts for at least a couple of years

Markets have had a tough few weeks as markets begin to fear a recession. But, the unemployment rate is still very very low at 4.3%.

There are still an extraordinary amount of job openings in the economy. There's a job there if you want one.

In my view, the risk is still the Fed cutting like Arthur Burns and inflation remerging and wrecking havoc on the economy.

Yes a pullback would be healthy and normal.

For 99% of investors just layering into the S and P 500 every month is the best course of action.

I looked at tonnes of individual stocks since the 1970s and apart from the very rare anomaly such as Berkshire or Apple you weren't rewarded for picking individual stocks.

I've spent thousands of hours thinking about how do you beat that index and mathematically I don't know how to do it.

Speaking of Berkshire and Apple, Warren Buffett just sold 50% of his Apple stake.

I read Warren Buffett's letters that he wrote in the 1960s and he sets out to beat the S and P 500 by not overpaying for businesses. His objective is to produce a 15% compounded return.

I remember he sold Petro China and afterwards the shares went way up, but then crashed back to down to earth, so Warren selling 50% of his holdings, either means he doesn't think Apple is in the same competitive position that it used to be or that it is overvalued.

Personally, I'm in the overvalued camp. Apple is 35 times earnings and only grew 5% in the last quarter.

In the long run, it could be a headwind for the S and P 500 and Nasdaq 100 as Apple makes up 6.8% and 9% of those indexes respectively.

For Berkshire shareholders the sale is a huge windfall. Berkshire now has $277 billion in cash.

Even after todays market crash Stocks and Bitcoin are not a buy.

I entered a swing trade long NVDA Friday and martingaled the losses this morning. It is just reminder for me that initial position sizing is so important. It is not something I would normally do but I just can't sell with the VIX at 50. I wasn't super confident in the trade Friday though and so sized accordingly.

The only thing I don't like is seeing a news headline that now is the time to buy NVDA. It will probably all depend if the Nikkei has another big drop or not. If it is flat or goes up the VIX will decay fast.

Bond futures seem to have priced all this in last week. Everything is still so elevated that there are not good sectors to rotate into. It is why I expect money to rush back into tech stocks as the storm passes.

I am considering if I should scalp TLT short here but that might be getting a little too cute.

Kellanova pump today has been interesting. Splitting the company to separate from the cereal side of things. Still can’t see this being an amazing thing but shrug.

They are fish. Don't listen to them.

Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get Slaughtered.

The highs are in for the year and likely the decade.

I hadn't heard about this.

Mars is in talks to acquire Kellanova which owns Kellogs and Pringles.

Crash? I think you mean "correction". And a pretty minor one (so far?). This was the correction that was needed. It was violent but very shortlived. It was concerning that we hadn't had any corrections at all in a while and this one could still have some legs to the downside it still isn't a "crash". Not yet anyway.

Today anytime something goes up people call it a "bubble". Everytime we dip a couple percent people call it a "crash". Having lived and traded through real crashes and bubbles it always makes me chuckle.

not trolling, but i've never understood these charts

ie would this have not been where that line was if we looked at it in 2020