AA Monotone Flop Near Bubble $300 Live Daily
Blinds 2500-5000-5000. 11 remaining. Top 8 paid, $4900 up top, $550 min cash, two stacks of less than 8bb at table who are way too reticent to get it in and will blind out shortly. Hero effective stack with about 130k dealt AdAc on btn, opens to 10k. BB calls. Relatively reasonable TAG player. Previously doubled through me calling turn on flushed board with TPTK in 3 way pot on spr <1. He had a flush from BB.
Flop 8h3h2h.
Check
Hero bets 6k, call
Turn 2c
Check
Hero bets 25k.
Villain tanks, slams his chips, acts like he might fold, then jams.
In retrospect, I think given ICM dynamics, checking turn and calling almost all rivers is best. However, as played, what should we do?
I tank fold after showing the table (previous hand I got KK cracked by AJ AI pre so it was like a “can you believe my luck” show). He mucks.
I asked him later if it was a good fold and he said he had JhJx, which seems like it has to be a lie and he probably had some nutted hand.
I think this is probably an easy fold as played given icm factors but that I gucked up the turn. Even against the likely lie JJ with Jh, I only have like 80% equity and with the short stacks at the two tables left can probably fold to the money.
14 Replies
Live tells 101 here. Slams chips down feigning frustration, followed with a jam is so nutted that I’m happily folding and not even thinking about it. You still got about 18bbs left so no need to panic. I would need some very reliable reads to call off here and it would be extremely rare.
I would check the flop and turn.
Too small on the flop. I'd go 10-12k (the pot is 27.5k and most of your value range needs to go 35-40% for protection/equity denial).
Check behind turn. Call most rivers.
check turn, fold to ai as played, don't show...
Yeah, fold as played, particularly with tells. Show is a mistake,
I have never seen it, but it would be super gangster for someone to actually be bluffing after the "feign frustration then all in" move. Although I have seen it where villain has thin value and was seriously debating it, but its never pure air. He may have been honest about JhJx
Flop size I like. Small bets on monotone boards is good.
I think turn is too large. Im torn between another smaller bet, like 12-15k into 40k, or just checking back and calling non heart rivers. A passive villain I lean bet, a more aggro villain who will float flop a lot and now bluff I lean check.
It's an obvious fold. Given all circumstances (reasonable player, near bubble, live tells) he's never jamming worse. We're probably drawing dead.
Also I would bet more on the flop and less on the turn.
I ran a quick solve on this. I used ICM, approximating other stacks, and payouts. I assumed Villain had us well covered.
We check the flop 100%. Not really close. Our range doesn't even want to bet much, just 14% of the time. and that is mostly hands like A8 and 99.
I did a node lock where we cbet hero's size with 50% of our range; AA no heart is still a pure check.
Another at 75% of range...nope still a pure check. 90%? Pure check.
As played, the turn is also a check. If you force PIO to bet as hero did, he is indifferent between calling and folding the turn. As other have said, this live tell should take us out of any notion of calling here.
Of course we never show...
he said he had JhJx, which seems like it has to be a lie and he probably had some nutted hand.
Why would he lie?
Over pair with a heart seems very likely.
I doubt he is jamming nuts on the turn, it seems better the call and let you keep betting since you bet strong. It would be nice to know his stack size because that matters.
If he had a set he would raise the flop with it with three hearts out there.
A flush probably still thinks it is the nuts and can check call.
Plus why c/c flop if youÂ’re going to c/r turn? ItÂ’s not like heÂ’s slow playing JJ for a trap. JJ still has a lot of showdown value, and this line would make it so he can only be called by better.
I donÂ’t think flop bet is egregious, but understand that solver wants to protect our checking range. I think turn is a mandatory check and I feel pretty confident about fold as played, especially if solver is indifferent, as live read is so strong.
Let me ask you though: did you ask the villain what he had in front of other players at the table or later on? If you asked him at the table and he claimed to have pocket Jacks with a Jack of hearts, it is 95%+ certain that he indeed had the Jack of hearts in his hand. It would take major chutzpah to call out an exact card in front of entire table when any player could conceivably chime in they folded that exact card.
I though QJhh was a reasonable candidate or any Jhxh from the BB really.
But I played a hand two days ago with the same villain that makes me second guess the read. He c/r all in turn with a hand with good sdv after I bet twice with over bet on turn (he had AQ on AKxx board and I had AK and we were like 80bb deep, basically turning AQ into a bluff). So maybe he just is taking this turn c/r line with non nutted hands more often than expected.
Still, no 3b with JJ as BB vs btn open seems unlikely.
I mostly check this type of flop if I don't have A♥.
As played turn I would check back. Lets under rep our hand and call down a bluff if a heart doesn't come (and hopefully the bluff is not all in).
As played on the turn after the 25k bet I probably call the jam (assuming BB has a bigger stack than us - if we have a bigger stack I'm always calling). I don't care about min cashing in general. If we fold we would have 16 blinds. The raise itself is basically a pot sized raise so we have to win about 33% of the time to break even and double up.
