2024 Fantasy Football Thread

It's fine. My personal preferences

Dobbins > Gus
Javonte or Estime > Jaleel
Zay > Dortch
Boyd > Burkes
Sermon > Hull

I could see Zay over dortch dobbins maybe over Gus but sermon over hull I can’t see because hullw has a carved out role regardless of depth chart he will take the naheim Hines role of pass catching

that's a first

From here on out, I'm forcing one stack anytime I start at 1.10+

Unfortunately I timed out and drafted Kalif way too early. I really don't want to reach for week 16 correlation.

QB - Caleb, Watson, Nix

RB - Walker, Mostert, Javonte, Gibson, Roschon, Laube

WR - DJM, Devonta, Flowers, Odunze, Sutton, Kalif, Burton, Mims, E. Moore

TE - Njoku, Kmet

where's rafiki?! :shocked:

Did you take DJM rd1??? Rome way over dk ADP as well?

I think you’re way overvaluing correlation here. This team gives up way too much projected pts and there are correlated tms with this exact stack that project for significantly way more pts than this bc they took actual first rd picks

The goal is to build super teams that are correlated you can’t do that if you overdraft players by this much

Yeah you're right, I realized after the fact I need to stick closer to ADP in the first round.

Sniped on Kyler in bbm, ruined my stack, but I think this ended up ok. Pulled Jayden up and Dak went in the 100s so got my first Dak no CD tm.

Got sniped on all the Commanders so took Sinnott

Qb - Jayden, Dak

Rb - Kyren, Monty, Dowdle, Chandler, R Davis

Wr - Wilson, MHJ, Worthy, Diontae, Cooks, D Robinson, Tolbert, J Wilson

Te - McBride, Conklin, Sinnott

Ass hats like this are why I'll reach for QBs

Don't love my RBs in this one

QB - Tua, Goff, Nix

RB - Monty, Conner, Ford, Charb, Allgeier, Mason

WR - Chase, Nico, Waddle, Higgins, Sutton, Quentin, Franklin, Malik

TE - LaPorta, Taysom, Wiley

That last sentence is the main point; don't go out of your way to do it. I think that was Pete's point too.

It's fine to do early, especially for tiebreaker purposes, but we're taking these guys in the top rounds with the idea that they're going to be elite, regardless of game environment. My opinion is that we aren't chasing outlier results on early round picks, but rather on the late round picks; which I think is the main concept.

As you said, the top guys can score 30 in w17, regardless of opponent or game environment. Someone like Jalen McMillan, or even higher drafted guys like Jeudy or Josh Palmer, are very unlikely to score 30 in a random game without a high scoring game environment. These are the profiles you want to go out of the way for later in the draft for w17 correlation purposes.

I don't want to let single sample results sway game theory too much, but let's look at the highest cost w17 game correlation from last year, which was also chalk and also scored well.

Did those players score well because of specific game environment or simply because they are good players in good offenses?

1. The Cowboys/Lions game final score was 20-19, so not a great game environment or an outlier result.

2. CeeDee scored roughly half of his fantasy points for the week on one play in the first quarter, which was not game environment driven.

3. It can be argued that ARSB benefitted from game environment. Half of his fantasy points for the week came on the Lions's last drive as they were trying to tie or win the game. But that wasn't necessarily unique to playing the Cowboys or being drafted with CeeDee. The Lions could have been in that specific game situation against any number of opponents.

4. CeeDee/Davante was a better 1/2 turn combo in w17 than CeeDee/ARSB. This is one of the main underlying points of arguing that w17 correlation in the earlier rounds is simply not as important since all of those players should, in theory, have a high weekly projection and ceiling by the time we get to w17. You actually might miss out on a better organic scoring combo, simply because w17 is biasing early round decisions.

5. The BBM4 champion had the CeeDee/ARSB chalk. The DK champion had CeeDee/Davante. Both of them had Kyren, which was way more of an outlier result than a random w17 game going off.

And as I said in my post, I'm still doing it. I have plenty of ARSB/Aiyuk/Deebo/CMC/LaPorta combos. I have some Davante/Olave. But I also don't have any of those single player combos at more than something like a 15-20% clip across my portfolio. I.e., 15-20% of my ARSB teams I'll take Aiyuk, 15-20% I'll take Deebo, etc. It also helps that there are large flat tiers in some of the earlier rounds too.

Something that I think may be important is focusing on specific w17 defenses. Liam is one of the only content creators that I hear talk about this. It can be a somewhat futile exercise since defenses aren't very sticky season to season and injuries play a big factor. But if you expect a team to have a bottom 5 rush defense and/or bottom 5 pass defense, shouldn't you want to be targeting their opponent for w17?

Fair enough, I think we are pretty close on this, I misread your post earlier as saying it had no value , which it doesn’t seem like is actually what you’re saying

It was going pretty good

Then this happened (obviously meant to draft Hurts, but I was adding DJ to the queue)

Star method strikes again haha

Note to self: Wait until after your turn before adding players to your queue.

I try not to add anyone to my queue that I’m not considering drafting with my next pick or 2.

Have had too many glitch situations where I can’t click draft and almost drafted someone in my queue that was a rd16 pick in rd 8

I draft exclusively from my phone though

yea I could see that being much tougher on the app

Is there a reason kyren Williams isn’t higher in most rankings? #2 rb behind CMC in ppg last year and he’s not that high of a pick. Is it just because they drafted corum?

Drafting Jones in the 4th screwed me up, but I tried to make the best of a bad spot.

QB - Jones, Trevor, Maye / got sniped on Stafford who I would've preferred over Maye

RB - Walker, Stevenson, Pollard, Wright, Dillon

WR - AJB, Puka, Nabers, Gabe, Polk, AD, Chark, Hyatt, Thrash

TE - Engram, Jonnu, Stover

I think you made the most of it. Tilting after that start.

Don’t like my rb room much, but feel like it’s pretty good everywhere else.

Herbert fell over 20 past ADP

Qb - Love, Caleb, Herbert

Rb - Walker, Swift, Gus, Jaleel, Kendre, Gray

Wr - JJ, Olave, DJM, Keenan, Watson, QJ, Chark

Te - Andrews, Musgrave

Mostly Corum and Kyren’s continual foot issues. He was a 1/2 turn pick in best ball as RB4/5 to start draft season back in February.

Since then, Corum was drafted and Kyren missed some time with a foot issue, although he should be completely healthy now.

Fun team. Paths for everyone in the RB room, so it can work.

Whatever the advance rate to make the playoffs is on UD. It's got to be at least double on DK.