How would you play queens here?

I don't play a lot live so take my advice with a grain of salt. Seems like a range of JJ/TT/and flush draws. With JJ and flush draws being much less likely from a tight player on a multi way flop. Flush draws would be getting good odds to just call and JJ is probably concerned about your concentration of over pairs. There's 3 combinations of TT, 6 of JJ that I would reduce down to 1 or 2, 8-9 FD combos which I would again greatly reduce to like 2-3. That's 3 combos that crush us. 1 or 2 that we crush. And 2-3 combos which have 36-48 percent equity in the flop and 18-24 percent on the turn. I'm guesstimating we have like 35-40 percent equity vs a range like this so it feels close but it's pretty generous to give him the JJ and even a few FD combos. After calling turn I would definitely call river, but the turn is close. I would be thinking really hard about how aggressive this player is, how I've seen him play draws before. How thin I've seen him value bet. I think turn should probably be a fold but it's close

Unless v1 has showed down bluffs in your history with him, fold turn. This is a big turn bet.

If you called turn I wouldn't fold on the river getting a good price. If you ever thought v was bluffing on the turn then this river is not a not huge game changer. If v is a TAG he shouldn't really have Ac8c pre or much other 8x pre. 98s maybe makes sense although that should fold pre, and he would have flopped the straight. I think most players won't be turning hands like 88, 87s (can't be clubs since 7c is out there) into bluffs on the flop. The bluffs are mainly going to be missed clubs that don't really have 8c. Basically suited ace/broad way hands with clubs. I guess Tc9c and Tc8c do get there on the river. My main thinking though is that people are just going to be underbluffing a ton, playing their draws pretty passively for the most part. And V can have all 9 set combos on the flop, 3 combos of 76s, and 4 combos of 98s if he plays that (3 combos on the river).

Preflop I would go a bit bigger, 45 or 50. You want to be squeezing larger.

PRE - raise bigger, like $50.

FLOP - raise over V2's donk. Call V1's raise.

TURN - yeesh. Hard to see what we're beating if we call. Hate to do it, but I probably fold here.

What does a $10 open from V1 mean?

Preflop seems fairly standard to me; you might want to 3bet a bit larger but no big deal either way.

Flop: you may raise the V2 donk lead but I do not mind just calling. V1 c/r into two people looks strong, it should be NFD or 2p+. I mean, c/r with JJ would be quite a big overplay, imo.
If you have any read that V1 plays his draw somewhat passively, you might fold right here, although it looks nitty.
Without reads, so including a fair amount of AXcc in V1's range, calling is fine.

Turn is an (almost ) complete blank: only 54cc gets there, but does V1 ever has this specific hand?
Anyway, on this turn, V1 has to continue with almost his entire range (if he checks, it is to give up).
On the other hand, I think he should either go smaller or shove.
With this bet size, his range his seems skewed towards value, so I think you should fold.

If you call turn, you have to call river for that price.

V's sizing on every street looks pretty nutted. Seems like he smashed the flop with a set, if not 98 for the straight.

I agree that the key decision point here is the turn. My thoughts on calling QQs here (and potentially most overpairs here) is that:

1. I have almost no two pair in this position. I also have very few sets outside of 3 combos TT and some 77, and my 8x mostly only consists of 88. Thus I felt my overpairs constituted the upper part of my range that would have to call down here. If we don't call with QQs, don't we end up folding out a lot of our range to this bet size? I'm not sure if we should, though I can't say I remember the last time I've faced a huge bet on the turn after a strong rr on such a dynamic board.

2. V1 showed tendency to take lines where I couldn't give him credit for a good hand usually, where in two other hands, he'd blast off 2-3 streets with all-in river shoves in 2 other hands. In fact, in all his hands where he showed aggression, it would be for relatively large bet sizings. So I thought it wouldn't be unimaginable for him to do this with any nut flush draw or flush draw with a Tc to turn into a bluff. This would, in turn, allow me to justify overpairs as part of my calldown range. Plugging this into the solver (after simplifying to a heads-up pot), jamming the turn is an option too due to the low SPR at this point and if we think V can be doing this with a few draws.

Relatively weak bet sizing from him. I was putting his RFI open pct at around 15-25% (nothing egregious), with bet sizings ranging from 6-20 dictated by hand strength and ignoring position.

Reveal:

At least, now you can update your original read on him, from TAG to ... something else ...

Gotta fold turn here and honestly maybe even the flop. This is a bad flop for you and the c/r really suggests one pair is no good (especially at these stakes where big bluffs are relatively rare).

rts

usually, after a bet of 40 and a call then a c/r of "100 on top", it's usually for strength at least 86% of the time (on average). If I call, I'm always expecting him to fire off the turn so I'm never calling hoping he shuts it down.

As played, if I got to the river in that spot I would call, but I would most likely fold on either the flop (depending on the player) or the turn.

Not trying to beat you up, but I think in a multi-way pot, when V1 was the original raiser, you 3B, and then V2 donks out of nowhere on the flop, you made a mistake not raising his bet before it gets back to V1.

If you raise that bet, V1 folds a lot, either here on the flop, or definitely if you barrel the turn. When you flat call, it probably looks weak enough for V1 to put in the check-raise.

After that, it all goes off the rails. Not sure if V1 thinks he's betting for value or bluffing on the turn, but that's when you have to decide if you're just going with your hand, or not. It's

He got lucky on the river when he made 2P.

But still, check-raising flop, multi-way, over a donk bet and a call from the PFR, with a weakish top pair, even with the ISSD, then barreling on a brick turn after his x/r gets called, and shoving river when there's 4 to a straight on board, and any 8 wins, is pretty aggro, and not really all that tight. You sure this guy's a TAG?

Think I'm cool with preflop although it does setup some dicey postflop SPRs, but hopefully we can manage that in position.

SPR is 4.4 - 6.5. In general, I don't think we should aim to be stacking off in these spots, especially multiway, especially in 3bet pots where we often are thought to have what we have (an overpair). So with this in mind, I'm cool with just flatting the donk... and then I make a nitty fold to the check/raise.

I don't get to the turn but I fold again.

River is probably more interesting given odds / flush draw busted / why is he betting four-to-a-straight, but I would have never gotten here.

GbutIfoldrealeasy...whichIthinkitismostlyrightinLLSNLG

+1

Ghardtogiveadvicewhenreadismilesoff,imoG

Raising this flop multi-way with one pair seems very not good.

That Villain knows it isn't 2004 anymore?

Didn't think I actually gave an argument for raising flop, beyond saying you should have, which turned out to be supported by the results, but that's easy to do in hindsight. If you want the supporting argument...

V1 opened pre from EP. V2 flat called. You 3B. V1 called, and then V2 double-flatted. When someone double-flats or cold-calls a 3B, it really collapses their range. So, on this flop, V2 could have 98, or 77, or 66, and occasionally maybe 76s, but he shouldn't be showing up with TT or any over-pairs, and no other 2P combos.

And really, how often is he going to double-flat a 3B with those hands? Maybe a little more often when your 3B size is as small as it was, but still, his range should be more weighted towards Broadway combos than middling pairs and SC's. Some of the hands he's repping are hands he could actually 3B pre.

In normal game flow, they should both be checking to you. V2 donking the flop, from between the original raiser and the 3B'er, on THIS flop, is fishy AF, IMO. Like, V1 opened from EP, so he should have a strong hand, and you 3B over a UTG1 open, and a CO call, so you should ALSO have a strong hand. This is a VERY wet and dynamic flop. You're almost NEVER checking back here.

If you're almost never checking back, why TF is V2 going to donk out with thick value, rather than let you c-bet, let V1 call, and then put in an obnoxious check-raise? And if he's making this play because he really is scared the flop will check through and the draws will get a free card, why TF is he betting 1/3 pot, instead of pot, if he's trying to protect a thick value hand from being out-drawn?

When a field caller tries to take the betting lead, it's often BS. But that usually happens when the PFR is OOP and checks on a "scary" board that favors the caller's range, and usually it happens in SRP's, because callers' ranges are wide enough to conceivably connect with a ton of flops. Here, you're the pre-flop aggressor, you haven't acted yet, and it's a 3B pot. Dafuq is this guy repping?

His line makes no sense, so I'm calling BS, and raising with QQ here. He's either betting weak value, which we beat, or he's betting a draw, and we want to charge him more, or he's an idiot with a better hand that he's actually planning to fold if he faces real aggression.

If he's playing 98 or a set this way, let's find out here and now, when the SPR is still high enough we can fold to a 3B. If we make it $160, and he only has $360 left behind if he calls our raise, it puts him in an awkward spot. He can jam for his full $520, and let us off the hook, or he can flat call, and guess what to do with his $360 on the turn, with $440 in the pot.

I don't want to slow-play QQ on this board, by flatting. The pot will be $200 coming back around to V1, who'll be getting 5:1 on a call. He's calling with almost ATC getting those odds, especially this deep, and he might actually x/r with a worse hand, if he's at all aware of how fishy V2's line is, and how weak our call looks. We want to put V1 in a tough spot with his worse pairs and draws, and punish V2 for his audacity.

I don't think our range is all that weak here. We could have all the sets, and maybe occasionally 98, when the CO flats the UTG1 open, especially when UTG1 is opening for $10 at 1/3. That's weak AF, when he's over $800 deep. When a TAG opens for $10 off an $800 stack and the LAG CO flats, I'd be squeezing a ton, with some hands worse than 98s or 66.

Say we raise, and either or both call. We're on the BTN. They're going to be checking turn to us a lot. We can barrel small (what I think we should do), or just check-back and see the river.

As for V1...he's aggressive, but not TAG, not even pre, if he's opening T9o from UTG1, and check-raising this flop. He's pretty LAG. I would say he probably just wasn't dealt very many playable hands the 1-2 hours you'd played with him to this point.

Above post is utter nonsense. Potentially deliberately misleading.

I would not be as concerned about the fact that he went bet, bet jam or raise bet jam in other hands as I would be about what he was showing down. It's a data point, but not the only one.

His open size being variable is a really key data point. The fact thst he shows opens T9o at all from UTG+1 means he is not a TAG. The fact that he then calls a 3bet means he is very far from a TAG. Villain is a fish.

The main data to consider would be if villain had shown down a bluff before after taking a very aggressive line. If not, I still feel good about calling flop and folding turn. As played I still like the river call when the bet is so small.

Raise could be okay but I don't think it's a mistake at all to just call. I mean, just calling you induced villain to RAISE you with 31% equity.

Regarding your first point, yes, you are going to have a hard time to have a lot of nutted hands in your range and you have to defend some overpairs to be unexploitable. HOWEVER - we should be playing exploitatively. By playing exploitatively, that means we will be exploitable too, but we are less worried about being exploited because we believe we have villain's number and not vice versa. Which should definitely be the case if villain is a fish. This means that we know more when villain is weighted towards value, when his range is trash and he has a lot of bluffs, when he is stationing too much, when he is overfolding. So that means we will be folding more than MDF when he is too weighted towards value, weighted towards value when he calls too much, overbluffing when he folds too much, overcalling when he bluffs too much. When we take an exploitative approach, we really don't need to worry too much about how high in our range we are.

We won't always be able to play perfectly exploitable. If we have data points telling us V is capable of bluffing turn, then we call turn. If we don't have data, we can fold turn and sometimes be wrong, but we still are going to be winning with our exploit vs the population.

I think both call and raise on the flop make sense and that's why you get various replies! The way of do it is to raise more with lower over pairs that don't block the FD and call with higher ones that do block it. Lower over pairs need more protection especially with no club. Higher ones need less especially with bdfd. Also, with no club you get more calls from draws you beat

So with qqc it could go either way. Probably I raise but can see arguments for either

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[QUOTE=sheldog;58686863]

What range do you give the TAG in UTG+1 to open with to a measly $10. I'd read the sizing as possibly a sizing tell as does AA raise low to try to keep as many people as possible in?

How does that range match with the board?

Just read this. You don't have to be nice when someone plays like an idiot. I'd work on your thought process in terms of his range though.

Maybe, but is this his standard open, or does it mean a weak holding?

In any case, OP answered above.