2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
multitabbing is hard work
Neutral. You can still find Nate Silver's models, he just has them paywalled. The overview is free though.
What you have here allows you to view his daily graphs on all swing states (AZ, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, NH, NV, PA, VA, WI). There is also one week ago and one month ago numbers for all of these swing states. Though NH and MN are probably not swing states anymore.
538.com is still catching up and doesn't yet have NH or VA. The recent graphs are NC and NV within the last 2 weeks and MN within the last week.
I am surprised by the differences in the two sites. As of yesterday Nate Silver (NS) has Kamala results that are mostly worse than 538.com (538):
AZ: NS=Kamala +0.8%, 538=Kamala+1.5%
FL: NS=Trump +5.2%, 538=Trump+3.8%
GA: NS=Trump +1.5%, 538=Trump+0.5%
MI: NS=Kamala +2.9%, 538=Kamala+3.4%
MN: NS=Kamala +8.0%, 538=Kamala+9.2%
NC: NS=Kamala +0.4%, 538=Kamala+0.4% (this one is exactly the same difference and exactly the same numbers for Kamala and Trump, the difference is RFK...)
NV: NS=Kamala +0.1%, 538=Kamala+0.6%
PA: NS=Kamala +1.3%, 538=Kamala+1.8%
WI: NS=Kamala +2.9%, 538=Kamala+3.8%
I have been citing 538.com numbers (I didn't realize Nate Silver was no longer there until recently when I saw the article you posted)....
I don't particularly care about him. But you always comment as if he punched you in the nose and took your lunch money.
pretty sure it's only been twice and that other time was pretty recent because political polling is so trendy now for obvious reasons
i have no ill will towards him, i think he's incredibly smart and would genuinely love to have dinner with him where i could pick his brain about things
i just don't think his body of work holds up remotely close to the reputation he farmed for himself and marketing is by far greatest skill
again, it's not very subjective either, the record is there for all to see and 538 even made a special "nate's gone and we trashed all his models and we're going to be better now" post for good reason
What happened here? It's been a few days since you invented a new definition and you couldn't resist?
It's the definition they use for trans-ness. Not a mental illness until it causes severe problems to the individual.
So it applies to everything. Remember that it's a bannable offense to disagree
i just don't think his body of work holds up remotely close to the reputation he farmed for himself and marketing is by far greatest skill
he is without a doubt one of the better early pioneers of introducing advanced analytics into fields which previously had not employed them
if you know baseball then you may know of PECOTA and he is behind PECOTA, which at the time was groundbreaking but has long since been replaced by more accurate models
during that time he was working as a journalist
this gave him a very strong network with other journalists
and he was very smart and was able to see that there was nobody doing anything publicly using analytics for election coverage - it existed, but it was all internal campaign stuff not for public disclosure
so in creating 538, he again did a genius thing in seeing where there was a gap out there and going in to provide it
and then due to his network, when he was the only person a journalist who was covering the election knew that did that, he became the go to guy and thus the face of analytics and from there the cycle built
what he did in the early days is massively impressive, but his refusal to adapt and improve upon winning models is his huge flaw - something that could have been easily done if he were willing to relinquish direct control over them and just hire specialist who were better at it than he was
again, it takes a real special kind of hubris to continuously publish your sports betting model predictions knowing it's never beaten the market
It's the definition they use for trans-ness. Not a mental illness until it causes severe problems to the individual.
So it applies to everything. Remember that it's a bannable offense to disagree
Ah, you were being ironic. We talked about this before, you need to be explicit when you're trying your hand at humour. It's not something that, how shall I put this, flows seamlessly into your posting style.
@Liuciom - I don't really go into the trans thread and it's not a topic to which I've given a huge amount of thought, but from popping in there in passing, I suspect that is a topic on which I'd be significantly to the right of other posters with whom I generally agree on other issues.
I have been citing 538.com numbers (I didn't realize Nate Silver was no longer there until recently) ...
I am surprised you didn't know.
I thought you were, for the most part, on top of everything.
Also: FWIW, I think the nyc conman will temporarily grab the 'National' lead when RFK jr drops out.
The temporarily could be for awhile thou (> 30 days).
So you have this condition that allows men with no money to have a ton of sex without paying and we are supposed to consider it a "disorder"... in which sense exactly? it also reduces emotional pain when doing stuff in life.
@Liuciom - I don't really go into the trans thread and it's not a topic to which I've given a huge amount of thought, but from popping in there in passing, I suspect that is a topic on which I'd be significantly to the right of other posters with whom I generally agree on other issues.
well it wasn't ironic, in this forum it's illegal to consideration a mental situation a disorder or illness unless it creates significant problems to the person experiencing it.
So you have this condition that allows men with no money to have a ton of sex without paying and we are supposed to consider it a "disorder"... in which sense exactly? it also reduces emotional pain when doing stuff in life.
I mean when you put it like that, it doesn't sound so bad at all lol. The problem is really caused to those around you, not to you personally.
I mean, the "disorder" is basically that you are an obnoxious, self-centred *******, to the extent that is a disorder.
Nate Silver's models, he just has them paywalled.
The overview is free though.
The free stuff is well worth looking at.
When the republican convention was ongoing, people here mocked it relentlessly, rightwing people on social media thought it was the best thing ever.
Election odds barely moved.
No with the DNC convention people here are so happy about how great their representatives are compard to the other party, rightwing people in social media are mocking the convention relentlessly, and election odds are barely moving.
What if both conventions actually deeply sucked?
When the republican convention was ongoing, people here mocked it relentlessly, rightwing people on social media thought it was the best thing ever.
Election odds barely moved.
No with the DNC convention people here are so happy about how great their representatives are compard to the other party, rightwing people in social media are mocking the convention relentlessly, and election odds are barely moving.
What if both conventions actually deeply sucked?
What's the point of it anyway, is it just a big rally or something?
These kinds of people are never satisfied with anything. The need for narcissistic supply can't ever be satiated. They're constantly upset that people allegedly treat them terribly (even though those closest to them bend over backwards to placate them at all times). They put on a great facade away from home, however. As for my guy, he did well with someone of businesses for a while but he tried to expand endlessly and went broke.
Yeah, I definitely forgot "needy". That's a key trait in my experience.
I am surprised you didn't know.
I thought you were, for the most part, on top of everything.
Also: FWIW, I think the nyc conman will temporarily grab the 'National' lead when RFK jr drops out.
The temporarily could be for awhile thou (> 30 days).
Thanks for the compliment. Apparently though I am not on top of everything...
Nate Silver left in 2023 because his contract was up and they were laying people off. In 2023 I wasn't looking at their site much except for news and Biden's approval rating and I must have missed any articles about his departure.
When I look at their graphs on 538.com it doesn't say who is in charge or whose algorithms they are using. If I hadn't seen the Nate Silver article I would have gone on not knowing.
Apparently RFK isn't dropping out he is "suspending" his campaign. He will still be on the ballot in non swing states (according to him). And he is endorsing Trump.
I think the next few weeks will be fairly neutral because Kamala will gain from the DNC and Trump will gain from people moving from RFK to Trump. But we will see.
Per ABC news
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Friday he is suspending his long-shot campaign for president and instead supporting former President Donald Trump.
He did so at an event in Phoenix, Arizona, during which he encouraged voters in red or blue states to vote for him, but
RFK jr said he would remove himself from the ballot in battleground states where he could act as a "spoiler."
This guy is a piece of crap.
very accurate - especially pointing out that it's like taking care of a child
hard disagree on final sentence though - yes they need other people in their lives constantly to feed off of, but they are perfectly at ease by themselves for lenthy chunks - going on the example of trump - he famously walls himself off each night to just watch tv alone - he regularly interacts with people and needs that, but the final bit of exaggeration really undermines the rest that you wrote which is solid gold
ya they are trying to get him fired. I would imagine he gets promoted instead.
is he some dnc **** or whats his deal? if you heard
im curious
ok apparently he was a DNC delegate (lol)
