Back at poker after 15yrs...
Hi all, actually 15 yrs ago, I managed to grind from the very microsstakes to 50NL (fullring )where I was a winning player, made up to 4K unfortunately I don't have HHs and stats, but my bankroll's spreadsheet is testifing the winnings 😃
A month ago I decided to play online poker again, and found out, that Full Tilt is no longer there :p, and even if always hated Pokerstars I have to play there, since the player pool in these summer days is pretty thin (you know Italian player can play against Italian players only by law... That sucks as well....).
Even if I could start playing 25NL, I decided to get rid of the rusty skills playing 10NL (6max as I learned there is no fullring tables), no rakeback, sadly....
After 5k hands I was winning 10 buyins, and I was like, cool I still remember how to play a good game....
Then I started to miss and miss again, lost some set over set pots, full house vs full house, vs quads....
And that's OK it's variance, I know, but It's been 7K hands where I couldn't win basically, and kept loosing, and then tilting sometimes with some stupid call, or over aggression against passive fishes calling with the nuts....
Then I tried to play a more aggressive game, opening up a little (I use to be a TAG nit), and 3betting more in certain spots, but I think at 10NL it's no good.... Especially while running bad....
Here is the graph that is making me sick (red line, I know.... but at 10NL I can't really pull it up, just because I'm getting called too much)
Stats after 12500Hands, Won: 1851hands
BB/100 : 1.30
VPIP : 22.06
PFR : 15.92
3Bet PF. : 4.72
Fold PF 3Bet. : 73.63
4Bet PF : 3.52
Fold to PF 4Bet : 61
WTSD : 25
WSD : 51
WWSF : 42
CBET F : 68.84
CBET T : 52.51
CBET R : 51.90
Call F Cbet. : 37.64
Att. To Steal. : 31.30
3Bet Steal. : 8,49
Fold To Steal. : 76.43
Total. AF : 3.09
Total. Fq : 50.66
When I started losing I thought that maybe it is just because it is the summer holidays here in Italy and the rec players are not playing... There are 60 players max online playing 10NL on Stars.it, 90% Regulars.... And some are even pretty good, 3Betting me a lot, and playing solid 23vpip/21pfr . Nits and regs basically, so not easy to win pots when running bad and adjusting for the nits and the 3betting regs at the same time.....
What do I do ?
I quit ?
Or do I go directly to 25NL and lose even more ? 😃
Study GTO ? And then try again when the fishes are back ?
Oddly enough it's august that started to go downhill....
Any comment is appreciated ;-)
12 Replies
OK, I don't know what's happened with that 3K hands downswing but within the last 1K hands I'm almost back where I was....
So I'm gonna go on... I plan to put some more volume, maybe 15K more, and then start taking shots at NL25.
Also I made a 40% rake back deal on ipoker, leaving Pokerstars for a while, maybe for good...
Then I feel I'm folding too much in some spots, especially to Aggro Villains, or Aggro donks, at least just before I begin figuring'em out...
Here some bad played hands where I probably got pushed out of the pot too easily...
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hero (MP): 180.2 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 6.12, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 52)
BTN: 172.4 BB (VPIP: 47.12, PFR: 22.12, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 104)
SB: 69.7 BB (VPIP: 31.71, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 1.87, Hands: 650)
BB: 18.7 BB (VPIP: 46.88, PFR: 1.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
UTG: 182.6 BB (VPIP: 23.17, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 164)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 6♠ A♠
fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 1.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 3♠ 8♣ 6♥
Hero bets 4.3 BB, CO calls 4.3 BB, fold
Turn: (17.6 BB, 2 players) 8♠
Hero bets 14.7 BB, CO raises to 29.4 BB, fold
CO wins 44.5 BB
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
SB: 103.3 BB (VPIP: 21.40, PFR: 17.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 888)
Hero (BB): 97.5 BB
UTG: 143.9 BB
CO: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 35.18, PFR: 13.30, 3Bet Preflop: 6.20, Hands: 366)
BTN: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 24.17, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 124)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ J♠
fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) T♥ 9♦ 9♣
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks
Turn: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 8♣
Hero bets 4 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB
River: (17.5 BB, 2 players) A♣
Hero bets 8 BB, BTN raises to 16 BB, fold
BTN wins 31.7 BB
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
UTG: 116.4 BB (VPIP: 17.25, PFR: 14.45, 3Bet Preflop: 11.19, Hands: 430)
MP: 183.4 BB (VPIP: 57.89, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 23.08, Hands: 20)
CO: 130.7 BB (VPIP: 26.03, PFR: 18.73, 3Bet Preflop: 11.86, Hands: 320)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.37, PFR: 19.75, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 244)
Hero (SB): 100.1 BB
BB: 171.3 BB (VPIP: 24.24, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 69)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♦ 5♦
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 2♥ 9♦ 3♣
Hero bets 3.9 BB, BB calls 3.9 BB
Turn: (13.8 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero bets 10.1 BB, BB raises to 40 BB, Hero calls 29.9 BB
River: (93.8 BB, 2 players) K♠
Hero checks, BB bets 124.4 BB and is all-in, fold
BB wins 88.7 BB
down to almost 0 after 27K hands, yesterday it was the most brutal downswing since... It looks like there's some evil resistance at 1000BBs 😃 (also the graph looks a lot like a double top - head and shoulder pattern wiich is predicting a downswing 😃 😃 )
Got coolered a lot, two time with a full house my side (flopping a set) and lost against quads... 6buyins gone in 2k hands, maybe I steamed off 1 or 2, the rest is really getting coolered (often enough by donks calling 3bets with trash, but ending up cracking AK, AA, KK, or always hitting 2nd best hand, when hitting, just because In the dowsing I could rarely hit, and when I hit it was the losing hand, but that's what a dowsing in poker is like.... Probably I couldn't cut the losses ) .
But I'm going to review the losing hands for sure...
Just a quick update, I know I have been running like real ****, for a while, but just two words after 50K hands:
WTF !
Luckily enough I'm up with deposit bonus, and the PS rake bonuses, but exactly breaking even after all the hours sucks big time 😃
What do I do ?
I quit ?
Or do I go directly to 25NL and lose even more ? 😃
Study GTO ? And then try again when the fishes are back ?
Any comment is appreciated ;-)
You are basically starting from scratch. Whatever happened 15 years ago doesn't really matter. I think your approach should depend on your goals.
Let's say you set a goal to make six figures a year and you want to achieve this goal in one year. In this case, I would study GTO, get high-stakes hand histories (HH), and study them as well. Analyze their stats and try to understand when they deviate from GTO and why. I would probably not play poker for 3-4 months—just study really hard every day for 8+ hours. Playing doesn't really improve anything; playing makes you money once you know how to play +EV.
If your goal is just to play for fun while making a little bit of money, you could continue with what you're doing now. But if you're tilting and the game affects you negatively in day-to-day life—for example, lack of sleep, irritability, lack of physical exercise—then I would recommend quitting and doing something else.
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hero (MP): 180.2 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 6.12, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 52)
BTN: 172.4 BB (VPIP: 47.12, PFR: 22.12, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 104)
SB: 69.7 BB (VPIP: 31.71, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 1.87, Hands: 650)
BB: 18.7 BB (VPIP: 46.88, PFR: 1.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
UTG: 182.6 BB (VPIP: 23.17, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 164)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB)
Out of position vs 2 players, you can check your whole range on the flop here. Betting big with 2nd pair backdoor flush draw won't give good results I believe.
The 8 on the turn is really not ideal, CO did call the flop with a lot of holdings containing an 8. Betting almost pot is burning money.
See this https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/po..., in which this article is referred
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
SB: 103.3 BB (VPIP: 21.40, PFR: 17.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 888)
Hero (BB): 97.5 BB
UTG: 143.9 BB
CO: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 35.18, PFR: 13.30, 3Bet Preflop: 6.20, Hands: 366)
BTN: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 24.17, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 124)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ J♠
fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) T♥ 9♦ 9♣
Hero checks, CO checks
Mandatory 3bet preflop, you JJ is miles ahead of BTN range + if you flat you are pretty much guaranteed CO will onboard also, again a multiway pot out of position...
I don't think you get called by a worse hand very often on this river.
I think you should study the game a bit more, those 2 hands at least are badly played, maybe you are running bad as you write but I'm pretty sure there is a lot of room for improvement.
You are basically starting from scratch. Whatever happened 15 years ago doesn't really matter. I think your approach should depend on your goals.
Let's say you set a goal to make six figures a year and you want to achieve this goal in one year. In this case, I would study GTO, get high-stakes hand histories (HH), and study them as well. Analyze their stats and try to understand when they deviate from GTO and why. I would probably not play poker for 3-4 months—just study really hard every day for
Thank you for posting this. I need to get on the study grind. I'm going to re-sub to Micro Grinder Poker School with my next paycheck. 100% pure gold.
GL OP. Where you from that you can play on pokerstars and GG? I'm reduced to sweeps coin poker being in USA.
Sounds like you've took some brutal beats since coming back. I don't tend to run in to big hands that often but don't play enough to be able to. I'm constantly sitting with my whole roll and usually am bust within an hour max. I have ran up some small amounts to larger amounts though so it goes both ways. But what I'm doing isn't working that's why I'm on this forum now trying to improve my situation.
Subbed.
OK first thank you for the answer, I'm sure there's plenty of room to improve and for sure some leaks to be fixed.
At 63K hands I'm still almost break even, losing 0.77BB/100. Of course considering some rake back at PS, and the deposit bonus, I'm in a good profit, sitting on a 900E bankroll (starting with 500E of my own money).
Big problem is that the rake at PS is 5.5% capped at 2E till 25NL, which at 10NL it has a Huge impact!! Being break even with this rake it isn't too bad imho..
Here is what the graph looks like :
Still experiencing bad variance often enough, but fortunately, I can tell I'm out of the horrendous run ( roughly from 24K to 40k).
I'm not sure I can Improve my game much at 0.5/0.10NL I know I'm too tight, and not being aggressive enough, expecially in 3bet pots, and maybe folding too much.
But I think at this level bet sizing is "too compressed", and there are way too many aggro donk fishes, where a TAG (passive with the nuts) approach works best imho.
Often enough the aggro-donks are potting/checkraising and 3barreling too easily considering the very low limit, and errors by the hero side misduging the opponent hand/range are costly!
By the way, here what chat-gpt thinks:
It sounds like you're dealing with a relatively high rake and a more limited player pool, which can make building a bankroll tougher. At -0.77BB/100 over 63K hands, you're not far from being profitable, so small adjustments could turn things around.
Here are a few things to consider:
- Rake Impact: The 5.5% rake with a 2 Euro cap is significant at your stakes. This means that small pots are heavily raked, and breaking even or profiting requires you to win larger pots more often. Focus on pot control in small and medium pots, and try to target bigger pots where the rake impact is less severe.
- Winrate Factors: A slight loss rate like -0.77BB/100 suggests you're close to breaking even. Look into your game and see if you’re leaking chips in specific spots (e.g., too loose preflop, over-aggressiveness, or not bluffing enough). Reviewing your hands regularly could help uncover mistakes.
- You're right in thinking that playing higher stakes like $0.10/$0.25 NL could potentially be more profitable in the long run, especially given that the rake structure remains the same. Here’s why:
Rake Impact: Since the rake is capped at 2 Euros, this cap is hit more often in larger pots at $0.10/$0.25 NL compared to $0.05/$0.10 NL. Therefore, the relative impact of the rake on your winrate is lower at the higher stakes, as larger pots make up a greater percentage of the total action.
Given my stats here's what he's suggesting, spot on I'd say.
Your stats give a good snapshot of your playing style, and they suggest a generally tight-aggressive approach, but there may be some areas to tweak for improving profitability:
VPIP/PFR Gap:
With a VPIP of 20% and a PFR of 14%, there's a noticeable gap. This suggests that you're calling with about 6% of your hands. While it's common to have some gap, a tighter gap (e.g., VPIP 20%, PFR 17-18%) would indicate you're playing more aggressively. You might be flat-calling too often, which could lead to spots where you’re at a disadvantage post-flop. Consider being more selective with your calls and adding some more aggression.
3-Bet Pre-flop (3.87%):
This is a bit on the low side. Increasing your 3-bet frequency, particularly from late positions or when isolating weak players, could improve your results. The 3-bet is a powerful tool for putting pressure on your opponents, and it helps in building bigger pots with stronger hands.
Fold to 3-Bet (77%):
This is quite high. While folding to 3-bets often can be fine, it suggests you might be giving up too easily. It’s worth analyzing specific situations where you could defend more frequently, especially when in position or with hands that play well post-flop, like suited connectors or smaller pairs.
WTSD (25%) and WSD (55%):
Your WTSD of 25% is within a typical range, indicating you're not going to showdown too often, and your WSD of 55% suggests you’re winning at showdown more often than average, which is good. However, if you're too cautious and not going to showdown enough, you might be missing opportunities to extract value.
WWSF (42%):
This stat reflects how often you're winning pots without going to showdown. A WWSF of 42% is a bit low for 6-max. It suggests you might not be aggressive enough post-flop, especially in smaller pots where players are more likely to fold.
C-Bet Flop (65%):
This is fairly standard, but you might want to check how often you're double-barreling or giving up after a c-bet. Adjusting your c-betting frequency based on board texture and opponent tendencies could help improve your post-flop play.
Recommendations:
Increase 3-betting: Particularly in late positions and against weaker opponents.
Review flat calls: You might be missing value by not raising enough pre-flop.
Defend against 3-bets: Explore spots where you can defend more with strong playable hands.
Post-flop aggression: Look for spots to bluff more or apply pressure, particularly on boards where opponents are unlikely to continue.
For the flat call thing it is because I start to flat call a lot with pocket pairs only to set mine, folding almost immediately against bad flop vs villain range.
I think 3betting even in position with pp 22-99 against loose recs calling 3bets with any ace, king or queen or less can be pretty detrimental....
Is set mining still a thing in 2024 ?
Meanwhile I'm backup up running as a winning player.... Hope the 0 line holds this time 😃
I think I'll be playing 10NL some more before taking shots at 25NL, even with a 1k bankroll
Wanna beat 10NL consistently for at least 1BB/100hands (after rake).
All right, a quick update, I just finished the PokerStars deposit bonus, and sitting on a 1k bankroll of which 410E is net profit (bonuses, deposit bonus, plus winnings).
Still not changing my game yet.
Variance is now pretty normal, and I'm sure I had a big negative variance run a few K hands ago....
I'm now starting to play 10NL (no 25NL just yet) on iPoker with monthly 39% Rakeback, that if everything goes well, and the player pool there is not bad, I should be netting more than on pokerstars not counting the deposit bonus, of course.
