Absolute insanity at 1/3

Snap call, given action described, assuming you have cash for a rebuy and won't tilt if you have to do so. Sure, he often has a scared made hand that is worried about the FD, but he also has draws and some of those made hands are worse Js. If he shows 78, you still have outs. Heck, even if he shows 9T, you have outs to outs with your BDFD.

Depending on how early we are in EP and how crazy raisey the table is, I would often fold AJo the first time around preflop.

The action should be re-opened preflop, so I would probably at the very least put the short Button all-in for $75 (so I'd make it $100 in an attempt to isolate the shortstacks and get rid of SB).

Reads would help, but against most I would probably make a nitty flop fold. He shouldn't be bluffing into a multiway protected pot and meanwhile KJ typically doesn't overplay like this. Mostly this is two pear+ concerned about being sucked out on in a large pot, at least ime.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is so player dependent. You talk a lot about the table, but not the player.

What have we seen of the player that's relevant?

If we think he's wild like the rest of the table, I'm calling, but in a typical 1/3 against an unknown I'm nit folding.

I would just fold otf with no reads (300 into 100 in 1/3 isn't usually just top pair), and also fold pre. AJ in MP in a crazy game over a straddle with lots of short stacks isn't that great of a spot, I'd prefer to be in a later position.

Will add result after

This is a snap fold

Too early to post results. I make it less pre so I reraise if this happens. Flop is fine given how draw heavy it is, but fold is OK too. Kind of depends on EP.

Surprised by all the fold advice. I put him on sets with 77/88, TPGK with QJ-AJ, 2p with all combos of 78 (suited or not), straights with all combos of 9T, and a bunch of lower FDs, some of which also have a pair of a BDSD. With that range, we are almost exactly flipping, and there's $115 already in the pot.

I could be convinced otherwise if this is one of the action players who shoves blind. But against any run-of-the-mill player the most likely spazz you'll see is with Axdd (which he can't have).

GcluelessspazznoobG

Oh, right. Was thinking we couldn't raise. 100% re-raising pre.

Reraising pre to 75 or so to put BU all in?

In live I've had the assumption that when people are value oriented they'll typically check and hope to extract max value. I took the jam as a sign of weakness and put him on a draw. What I should have considered is how live a flush / straight draw could be.

Nailed it. Ship pre. As played fold flop.

No. Way more to get EP to fold or make a bad call and iso the shorties.

A lot of scared players will do it with strong hands to shut it down due to all the previous nightmares they've had of people countering and out drawing them on strong hands so expecting everyone to slow play big hands wouldn't be too advantageous. A 3x jam otf is hardly ever a sign of weakness (esp in 1/3).

IME, overbet shoves like this on a wet flop are rarely sets, but often 2p or 8+ out semi-bluffs

Reveal:

I reraise all in, he calls and turns over 69dd. Turn is T and he scoops.

4B to $115 pre, or just jam all in. BU and EP ranges are so collapsed when they cold flat the CO all in. We rate to have the best hand a ton.

AP, I probably fold flop unless EP is uber spewy and capable of doing this with something like 1P + a draw or just any draw.

This is kinda the problem, in that we're mostly crushed versus flipping against the majority of his range (and rarely crushing ourselves, unless you think he's playing worse Jx like this... which most don't).

I attempted to stove and if we give him every set / two pear / straight plus every diamond draw (prolly too generous on both ends, but a start), we come up short equity wise. We really need spazz Jx / etc. before a call is profitable, imo. So reads might be the tipping point.

GcluelessstovingnoobG

We need 43% equity here to call off, and I think 2p and straights are also likely holding villain could have had. I wouldn't be super surprised to see T9o and 87o here also, once there is a cold caller and fish think there are good pot odds to call, they show up wide. I wouldn't assume we have 43% equity vs the probability weighted range of villain's matching this description.

As I said above, if we give him QJ+, as well as the range y'all are advocating (except I didn't give him all the diamond draws, just the one and two-gappers), we're at 49.X% (I don't remember the decimal and don't want to enter it all back into stove) equity. Interestingly enough, that's almost exactly the equity we have against V's actual holding (48.84%).

I was not thinking of giving him QJ here. I think some Xd7d, some TdXd, 9dXd makes sense, and maybe JT, J9 makes sense because of all the equity those hands have. Plus the straights and two pair. This range :

Note we have Ad so that reduces his possible flush draws as well. Vs this range we have about 35% equity which is not enough. Most recs are not 3x pot donking with QJ. If they donk with a hand like that it is going to be a smaller donk most of the time. These types of donking fish tend to be very face up with sizes. Here, the fish probably understands with this big of a draw, they are ahead of a lot of hands. They are about a 56% favorite vs AJ no diamond. Those are the type of hands fish are willing to go 3x pot.

Also, some of the hands, AJs, KJs, QJs are likely going to be open raises, not limps, possibly even their offsuit varieties depending on how passive the fish is. But more than that I just don't see many fish going 3x pot on the flop with those hands. Even if we give them half the offsuit combos of those hands we are still at sub 43% equity.

I mean, we don't have reads on V, but given reads on game, this seems too tight.