Top set on flush and str8 completing river

flop probably in theory smaller because eq run close togehter so you bet super low freq and small size but exploitve fine if villains are passive on future streets and also they are not raising enough vs the small bet etc.
Turn obviously not the greatest turn and we block the continue range with the Tx heart so i would realy like a check back especially so deep anyway it will be hard to extract 3 streets of value on such a dynamic texture and we protect ourself from the 87 combos that he can have also off suited here multiway. Shallower the stacks so 100bb for example bet gets better.
River we would need to go very polar for a think value bet i think this river is to bad (probably your hand with the heart blocker one of the only hands that want to go for a smaller bet like 66-75% size vs 2pairs) depends on how aggro villain is also if he never turns 2pair into a bluff on the river then feel free to valuebet thin. If he seems to be more on aggro side just check back

A lot of their worse bluff catchers are Tx and you giga block that so I'd definitely check back TT. Maybe 1/2 or 60% with 66 if I thought they weren't very foldy and probably won't bluff raise enough.

x back looks fine. Hard to get called by worse often enough and you can't call a xr.

You are all over the place with sizing smaller otf or check. Turn check also seems like a good option, if not you can add few bb he just calls pair+draw type of hands. River depends a lot on the opponent we block a lot of flushes most 78 will raise turn, so 1/2 seems ok if he is a bit of a station. I dont think most opponent will make some huge bluff raise even if you bet smaller so its mora of a question will he call weaker.

Bet 8-10 bbs on the river. There's enough behind us to fold. And Villain is calling a lot of his range that calls the 2/3psb ott.

I'm confused by a checkback with ~170 behind us and 34 in the middle.

I did end up checking back, because I feel like this guy wants to go to war with me sometimes and this runout seems pretty bad for me. Felt like maybe I was being a bit too nitty at the time for not squeezing value. He ended up having ATo.

If it was with Ah maybe check was the best option.

There’s no indication that BB is any kind of fish, and you lose to all 3x, 3 different straights, and hearts. You need to get called by at least an equal amount of worse hands while also never getting xr on the river, which is not happening.

Villain might not be an aggro fish. Just a sherrif.

Ok, i might be wrong. OP would need to clarify 'this guy wants to go to war with me sometimes' really because my interpretation of that is over aggro;over stationy. Both characteristics exploited by betting thinner and calling lighter OTR imo.

Whereas if someone just has bluffs cos reg or solid player I would tag them 'reg' and apply gto. Trouble here (hunch) is not getting three streets vs any kind of fish seems like a bigger EV mistake than playing safe vs pool.

We also get value from 66, 44, 55, 65, 64, 54, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9. That seems like a waste, esp if we can confidently x/c vs a known aggro who is unlikely to resist this plum spot vs a block bet?

You're right. Were positions reversed and we got raised on the river, "wants to go to war" would mean something different, but Villain's been pretty passive in the hand, so I took it to mean we're getting called a lot.

But, again, you're right. If we're getting called a lot, Villain is opening up their range, so we should valuebet.

No one plays 44-66 this way, and a lot of people play weak 2p like it's the nuts so they don't even have those some of the time. They're all basically bluffcatchers anyway and this is probably a spot that will be overfolded given the runout and it being a MW pot.

Well my Solver's not keen on Xing river here. Even if V is a reg I think we should probably bet. We're just way too ahead

Our T♥ blocker is actually more powerful than you think because they cap themselves below most broadways by calling pre, the board blocks a lot of lower combos, and we're blocking the middle. So they don't actually have that many flushes to attack us with.

You can see this effect when we compare EV of betting b25 to b125. T♥ combos preferring b25.

This seems like a unique situation where flush completing rivers are very good for us::

*Granted this is solved for a CO v BB SRP scenario but I think BB gets here with roughly the same range AP.

This.

I'm not against a small bet nor do I think check back is terrible but 44 and 66 is not playing this way in fact I don't think any 2p is either so we're targeting Tx which we block.

Opponent is not a rec, but a reg who multi tables for around 16 tables and plays a lot of volume. Plays a 25/21 game with a river check/raise of 6.06%. He plays a bunch of tables at 200NL and 100NL. Opponent has a habit of berating me in the chat for some of my plays. For awhile, I was exploiting him with lots of 1/2 pot probe bets which he was folding too much to. Eventually he caught on and started raising my probe bets more often. He's done some interesting exploits against me where he chooses raise sizes that are large and sometimes extremely large. By that I mean pot size and bigger. A few times he would like 2x to 3x the pot.

The thing that sets him off the most is when I've raised an over bet of his or donk led small the next street after an overbet. I've done this a few times with some success and sometimes disaster. Overall, I'd say his game is pretty solid, but he tends to overestimate how bad I am at the game. I have about a 49k sample on him and he's losing -2.9BB/100, but that is also a fairly small sample size and by game play I would say he is at least fairly decent.

With this dynamic in mind I did check back the river and was actually wondering if I was adjusting a bit too extremely. My thoughts at the time were that a lot of the draws come in and a lot of the good hands that would call would have check/raised me on previous streets. He has done some weird things before though. He once checked AJo on KQT BU v BB. I probe bet 1/2 and he raised super big. Unfortunately, I leveled myself into a really big mistake and jammed with QTo. So with the current hand, 44 and 66 could be possible if he is planning some bizarre exploit on a runout, but I feel it is probably unlikely. The AJ check was probably his way of countering the fact that I had a tendency at the time to probe bet turns too often and with the incorrect sizing.

If I do get check/raised on this river, I am confident that he would likely choose a very large sizing. I don't think I've ever seen him check/raise small.

Does that solve account for the fact that this is a multiway pot?

Original solve was using a generic BB call range so I've run another one using the gtow recommended calling range for BB v CO open + BU call, which is a bit tighter than I realised like this:

Who knows what level people are at but it's basically the same prinicples going on where the top end combos are almost always raised and we're mainly looking at some offsuit broadways, SCs and suited gappers.

Running this range @ 200bb solver mixing so it's a closer decision but still well within betting territory if we have good reasons for it.

Obviously just one solve with a million assumptions (solver prefers more of an overbet strategy on this turn which surprises me). The exact final river ranges will be very player dependent. But the principle end state of our ranges is still roughly the same even if our flush advantage is narrower vs a more concentrated range.

Given your reads however I still favour betting personally but clearly we might be splitting hairs. When I play a reg I'm looking to overbluff in general so when I have thin or mixed value I like to slightly overplay + force them to overplay calling or raising. If we don't think we can bet/call then X is clearly preferable.

Disclaimer: I am a live recreational player, so not really skilled in GTO and the like (used to play online in the pre-solver era), but eager to learn.

OTTH

I'd probably go a bit smaller otf, as the pot is multiway, but no big deal.

My main question is ott: I agree the turn card is not great for us but, since now we are HU, would be an overbet (say ~120% pot) completely out of line ?

Edit: just seen in the post above that a solver actually does overbet turn, so that answers my question already ...

Yeah solver likes it. It's interesting because while our equity tanks ott our EV is still doing fine being IP with a slight nut adv. BB is short some 78s combos in theory. We're about proportionally equal in sets but they have lots of top pair that have to pay off to our OPs.

Betting larger mostly affects our mergey bluffs like 8x, 7x, 6x etc and lowest PPs, which now get to over-realise when BB folds out their equity adv (they're even supposed to fold some Tx here).

Non-intuitive but i think it's the better play.

16 tables while thinking all this through, nah. Peg him as a whale and vbet. I'm old tho

I wonder if OOP has a sizable donking frequency OTR in this sim. In reality I suspect many players would never lead out here which may render their checking range much stronger than the solver's.

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I know Pio wanted to donk the turn (~60%) in my rougher 100bb sim. It mostly Xs range otr as played.

I removed donking from my second 200bb solve for those reasons. I'd need to run comparison tests, and it makes sense it might slow down, but a stronger check/call range is good for our upper value hands too.