I haz blocker

Why not just call the turn getting 6.5/1 with your nut flush draw?

I overlimp in and evaluate. If raising I probably make it $35 just to set up that much more of a comfortable stackoff postflop with TP.

I also check back this flop.

I think I might just take my odds and call on the turn. The K is supposed to hit our AK so I'm a little worried when competent V2 comes along. And sure enough it looks like we've been tarped. At this point purely a math question if we're getting the odds to chase a flush draw with at least one dead card; I'm too lazy to math, but I'm guessing the odds aren't there.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This

You're getting a great price, I'd be extremely ecstatic and fist pump call 20 into 90 3 ways with ace high and the NFD. I don't think this is a good spot to raise since any flush is still calling/re-raising (the flop went c/c/c, so he could easily be betting with a flush hoping someone calls).

Are you checking back your good flush draws on this flop? Are you raising the turn with AK no club?

If the answer to those questions is no, then I am not really sure what the turn raise reps. Guessing a hand like QcJc bets flop and a hand like AhKh flats turn, so your value hands in this line are pretty limited.

Also obviously varies from player-to-player, but I read V2's table talk (and then jam for basically a minraise... ) as strength.

Well you're pretty screwed. At best I think you have 11 outs, 8 clubs left and 3 aces and that is I'd somehow you are up against KQ or KJ with no club. If you have 11 outs, you barely have the equity to call. But a fair amount of the time you are going to be up against hands like KxQx, KxJx, and some sets and some flushes so I don't think you're going to have enough equity to call here. Unless somehow V has a straight draw with a club, but that's pretty damn unlikely, especially given description of him. Unfortunately I think we should fold.

I don't hate your idea raising him here if you sense weakness. I think we could go smaller though like 80 or 90. You are basically making him feel pot committed. There is nothing wrong with calling either and realizing our equity. If he looks weak on the river that can give us the green light to just jam. But it is hard to put him on a hand that is ready to stack off when he bet 20 into 90, so I don't fault you for going for it.

I like the raise against a weak bet and weak call but this is too big. Make it 100 and fold to a jam.

Calling the 20 is enticing too.

Pre looks good.

I'd c-bet the flop, for $30.

I don't mind the turn raise, but it's way too big. We could make it $80 and achieve the same result. Flat calling is also fine, I guess.

Don't think we can fold now. Gonna have to go with our hand and hope we hit, or that V2 is way out of line.

yea, that's the problem. If he jams and we fold and the rivers another club, we wouldn't be able to forgive ourselves.

It's hard to tell in these spots. Sometimes people go small because they are weak but still think they have the best hand. Other times they are going small because they are strong, but think we are weak, or think they may induce us to raise. Sometimes you just can't know. Sometimes you will feel like you are punting. In this case I can tell you that you weren't punting, your play made sense to raise. I just think you went a little too big. And I don't think you had equity to call off but that can be hard to tell in the moment. Just run some equity calculators and do so math on this spot in case you get in this type of spot again sometime. You just have to realize you're not going to have 12 clean outs a lot of the time. In this case you had 8. Vs flushes you will only have 7. Vs KxQc or KxJc you have 11.

Only thing I really don’t like is the full PSB turn raise. As mentioned above. I think the NF raises smaller generally so you’re really repping a naked A it seems.

If he jams and we fold we never see the river.

I think if you c-bet 1/3 pot or less on the flop, this hand is easier to play. V probably x/r's the flop, and we just fold. Otherwise, if we c-bet and get called, we can barrel small or check back turn, and go from there. V might even donk lead the turn, and make our decision even easier.

The problem with your line is that we didn't do anything to narrow V's range enough on the flop to know if he's leading turn with thick value, thin value, or a bluff.

We have minimal showdown value now that the K appears, but that card should hit our range more than his, and yet he bets. If he's bluffing or betting thin value, we don't need to raise huge to get him to fold. And if he's betting thick value, we definitely don't want to raise huge, because we're effectively pot committing ourselves with just a draw.

Flat calling for pot control is fine. Raising small as a semi-bluff is fine. Raising huge is spewy.

You SHOULD have a flop check-back strat that lets you raise the turn and rep a decent (if not huge) amount of hands. And these small leads on super wet boards are super exploitable with a raise. And our hand is great for playing with a raise, so hizzah!

In practice I think H usually won't rep as much as they should so this spot kinda turns into the poker equivalent of the two r-words fighting meme.

Unfortunately you've raised the turn the perfect amount to create an indifferent call/fold decision when facing a shove, so you're basically your own villain in this hand. I'd raise 1/2p here and have a more plausible r/f possibility, even if it is still a little gross with this hand specifically. If we've raised a size where we can't find a fold with our bluffs when facing a shove, then we're better off shoving ourselves.

As played, the speech makes me think it's more likely more of our outs are dead so I think I'd still click fold.

I think you missed that the 4c is dead?
We have AcQx on Kc9c6s3c with the 4c dead. The -2% for the 4c and 6c kind of matter. Although we also gain about 0.6% equity from the other 4 being dead too. At the table I would start thinking about it like we have 6-7 outs and see how close we are.

Calling 170 to win 580 we need 29.3% and vs. 7c6h we just miss it (28.6%). Vs. KdJd it's worse at 26% and KdJc it's ~24%. Sets and flushes are much worse, obviously.

Realistically V has to have hands like 8c7d/5c4d in range to make it a break even call, although we can get lucky and it's not as bad if we are only losing 10bb per hand.