Will this boat float or sink?

I'm not calling. I'm not folding.
Guess I'm shipping.

#TeamBoatFloat

I call.

Not sure I like the turn bet multiway. No flush draw or made flush is folding and top pair is drawing dead. They don't have over pairs in range which is what your bottom set is targeting with the turn bet. As played I think you can jam or call river. If you call you're basically trying to induce the SB to jam over the top so I'm not sure why you'd feel sick about that? It's not like he was folding a bigger set or the nuts on the river anyway.

i think it might be overplayed pre river when turn goes 3 ways vs 2 thinking players but man idk if id actually check somewhere ingame. id never fold river but yeah given it's only 100 more i dont think theres a huge difference between calling and raising (i expect him to literally never b/f unless its a bluff) so id probably just stick it in and be whatever about it. if v1 is a fish i think there's more merit to just flatting since you could potentially get overcalled more easily by flushes if you just call as opposed to raise. if you're deeper would just flat but i think theres good arguments to raising vs this particular player w these stacks despite his line potentially representing a more polar value range than our hand. i could be convinced the presence of v1 is enough of a reason to just flat but like idk man is pretty tough for him to have u beat, would have to be like qtss exactly? dunno its actually pretty tough to range v1

Stick it in. Villain isn't folding flushes or Qx for $100 more. They could put you on AsAx or KsKx. They are basically only folding bluffs. You aren't always winning when they call, but I think it is more often than not.

Obviously one of the least attractive 2-card full house situations. However, you’re 120 bb deep. I think the money just has to go in. V’s can overplay flush or QX here.

Why is the turn bet bad? We don't want flush draws to fold. We're not betting the river if we don't boat up. We don't really want to give them a free card to hit a flush or straight or make a bigger set with some PP. Seems like a standard spot to get value from TP and draws.

I'd feel sick if SB jammed, because I know him, know he's a good player, and know that he's not going to jam river over a bet and a call without the effective nuts. If I call and he jams, he's going to have QT more often than not, especially when he does that quick chip dance before checking.

If I flat call the river, it's mostly to induce him to call, not induce a raise when I have the fourth nuts. If I jam, it's not to get better to fold. I'm hoping to get called by worse. But I don't think SB is ever calling with worse, so I'd just be hoping to get called by the BB, who might be betting trip Q's or a flush.

I think flop and turn should have been bigger. Easy ship now. Would have been easier if flop/turn bigger 😉

What sort of ranges are we giving them, for value or as a bluff?

In game, I was thinking AsQx, KsQx, QxJs, AsTx, As5x, KsJx, Js9x, maybe KsJs or As5s that didn't raise pre, and maybe some other middling PP's with a spade. Kinda hard to find very many hands we beat that get to the river this way, and then bet into us or call a bet or raise, after we raised pre and bet flop and turn.

The most likely hand for a bluff or thin value bet would seem like AsQx, but that's just two combos, and I wonder how often those are just flat calls from the blinds pre. Maybe KsQx for another two. I can't see worse flushes playing this way, and it's hard to think BB is going to blast off on the river with QJ, rather than check and hope we check back.

Seems like you answered your own question. Not sure what answer someone can give you you're going to like based on all the reads you have.

This seems very optimistic unless I'm missing something. KsQx and AsQx are calling MAYBE and these hands might be 3 bets? Hard to tell with how nitty 1/3 regs seems to be. I'm not convinced you'e value betting vs a lot of TP and draws tbh unless they're the 2 specific hands I mentioned.

It's an interesting hand I'll give you that.

How much would you have bet?

I recall you play in home games with older men and loose action. Would you also take a larger size with good regs? Or are you suggesting we go larger because they're good regs?

This is sort of self contradictory, but I tend to tighten up and either check or bet small with 2P/sets/straights on monotone flops, even though I know it's hard to flop a flush. It seems at least a little more plausible in a SRP, against the blinds, as opposed to a 3B pot against EP/MP opponents.

I was trying to thread the needle, betting small enough to not get trapped, yet big enough to jam for a PSB on the river if I boated up. If we c-bet larger on flop and barrel bigger on turn, how do we get away from our hand if we get raised?

Just because the decisions are easier when the pot is bloated doesn't mean it's correct for a set to possibly value own itself here.

V2 is never bluffing in this spot, but I think that fish loooove to donk here with flushes, trying to get the max from trips or a hand like AA or KK that is likely to check back.

It sounds like V1 is going for the classic "if I fake like I am going to bet, maybe they will both check back" reverse tell. I am not worried about him at all.

Feels like an easy shove. If you get boat-over-boated it's just bad luck.

You don't think AQ, KQ, and flush draws are calling the turn? I'd think V2 might even be calling with some straight draws occasionally. He certainly calls with his combo draws, like KsJx and Js9x. Probably also AsJxz and maybe Ks9x.

I agree AsQx and KsQx might be 3B pre, but not always. There's some potential tilt going on here, with BB recently getting stacked, and me running bad, such that I could see those hands being flatted instead of raised off.

I mean, we have a set. We raised pre, and didn't get raised when we c-bet the flop small. We're going to have the best hand on the turn a lot. If there's a logical reason to slow down and check back a brick turn, I'll listen to the explanation.

I tend to agree, but I can't help thinking that there are some spots where we might find a hero fold. And If so, I want to figure out the logic to find those folds, even though I know these spots don't come up that often, and it may be negative EV to hero fold when they do. It's a disaster if we fold to a flush or trips, obviously, so maybe we just have to accept losing to a bigger boat.

I guess I wonder if bottom boat shouldn't be approached differently. If this wasn't a monotone flop, I wonder if people would look at it differently, and more would find a fold when all the draws brick out, or if we're still calling off or jamming, because V might be over-playing trips, or occasionally bluffing with his bricked draws.

Yeah that's what I said. AsQx and KsQx are calling turn. I'm not convinded AQhh or KQhh is calling the turn, that seems pretty optimistic.

This I simply disagree with on monotone boards.

It just seems thin at first glance, I definitely don't hate it or think it's a mistake.

On flop, I go bigger for pure value. They are rarely/never folding As or a Q. Plus, they might just call with a small flush regardless of bet size. On turn, it's about the same thinking. I want value and I want them to pay w/ a spade. If they flopped a flush, so be it. So many players will just call down with a non-nut flush.

Lets be real. SB never calls worse once hero calls assuming he doesn't see hero as a total whale. So I'm not at all convinced calling hoping V1 calls behind with worse is a good strat.

we're scared of specifically QTo and there's too few combos left to consider a fold. go for the live read on the villain who checked and either ship or call trying to get the most chips in the middle from him as well.

I think when I'm stuck and my table image sucks, and V2 is also stuck, and V1 is running good and big-stacked, they're going to be calling with their combo draws, hoping to make a flush, but willing to gamble with a possible straight run-out, when I could have AA/KK/AQ.

I'm not defending my turn barrel as ALWAYS the right thing to do, but checking back with a set doesn't seem like the right thing to do, either. I wouldn't like a big bet on the turn, but betting 1/2 pot would seem like a size that forces opponents to call down wider, or raise with better.

But if we bet bigger, we're forcing them to fold out some hands we beat, and continue with more hands we don't. If we bet smaller, their flushes might raise at some point before the river. At the very least, we lose less when we're behind.

I agree that SB probably isn't going to flat call behind me. He's either folding worse or raising with better.

When he pump-fakes, he's either got the nuts and is thinking about a check-raise, he's got trip Q's or a flush and is planning to check-evaluate / possibly bluff-catch, or he considered bluffing and thought better of it.

Preflop I'm fine with open limping or raising small (I'd go $10 myself just to have that much more of a playable SPR).

SPR is 7.5 on the flop. With oversets being somewhat unlikely, but pears and draws being plentiful, I think I aim for big bets to play for stacks. If we run into a flopped flush at this SPR, oh well, practice our board pearing techniques. So I'm not really a fan of our small bet. One of the benefits to raising preflop is that it allows stacks to be played for when we bink, and yet we kinda nullify that now. I'd PSB and plan on a large turn bet to setup a reasonable river shove on a good runout.

Ditto for turn. If we get just one caller we'll have $275 left in a $180 pot, which is not what we want left to shove. Also giving draws far too good of odds since it will be difficult to fold to a reasonable river bet even on a scare card (of which there are many).

Interesting river spot. I originally come from Limit, where the correct play here is prolly to just call and hope for the overcall, thus winning the same amount while risking less. This idea doesn't quite translate exactly the same to NL, but it does somewhat and I might consider that here (i.e. a call risking less can sometimes win us more in this spot than a raise risking more).

ETA: I'm pretty much in agreement with Java's bet-larger-on-each-street line. Mostly cuz I think with sets in SPR 7.5 pots we should be attempting to play for stacks. I'd take OP's much more cautious line at bigger SPRs.

GcluelessNLnoobG