2024 MLB Season Thread
Nobody wants these games to start more than Mannfred.
Shohei just spoke to the media for the first time. In a prepared statement, he said:
-He never bet on baseball, or any other sport,
-He didn't know that Ippei lied to him, and that Ippei took the money from Shohei's account to pay his gambling debts
-He'll continue to cooperate with the investigation, and play as the investigation plays out.
If all that's true, then this is probably the best possible outcome for his reputation going forward. He's a naive star athlete who trusted the wrong person. It happens.
In any event, these games are about start! Last year, just like we all predicted, "Someone Else" came on strong in the playoffs, as the Texas Rangers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks for the World Series. Can that happen again?
T-Mobile is giving away a free MLB.tv subscription ($149 value) to T-Mobile subscribers starting TOMORROW (Tuesday 3/26 - April 1). Don't miss out.
So speaking of gambling, here are the current best odds for the World Series you can find, from Vegas insider!
Creeping up on 50-50. What's the WAR for a 50-50 season, say a .300/.400/.600 slash, with 15 wins on the mound with low ERA and high K/W, K/9 etc? Too, too bad the arm thing.
What are the GOAT SB% in history for seasons with 40 and 50 steals? This frickin' guy is a very excellent player. I'm glad he wasn't banned for life.
Best MLB single-season wRC+ among RHBs:
2024 Judge, 225
1924 Hornsby, 214
2022 Judge, 207
1994 Bagwell, 205
1994, Thomas, 205
1998 McGwire, 205
1925 Horsnby, 202
1972 Allen, 199
1981 Schmidt, 198
1876, Barnes, 197
Post-integration:
2024 Judge, 225
2022 Judge, 207
1994 Bagwell, 205
1994, Thomas, 205
1998 McGwire, 205
1972 Allen, 199
1981 Schmidt, 198
1966 Frank Robinson, 195
2013 Miggy, 193
1971 Hank, 191
OMG ... Dick Allen. I saw him play at Crosley Field. Nobody else on here did so don't say you did. He was hilarious. Had no clue he'd show up here. Looking at his stat line he scored 125 runs his rookie year. I mean that's when you're just breaking in, man. You're not supposed to do that. Looks like only Pinson (my fave as a boy), Trout and Judge scored more as a rookie since integration.
Wow ... no Pujols, A-Rod, Mays, Aaron or Manny on the list of GOAT RH seasons?
isn't this the easiest season ever to steal bases so getting 50 isnt that big of a deal? And 50 is more like 38 or something historically?
First 3 hitters homer for the Dodgers today. Is there much precedent for that?
For those 3 guys? Thats just a casual Saturday at the ballpark.
I just asked ai online:
Conclusion: Given this analysis and based on available data, it can be concluded that there has not been an instance where three different players have led off a game with three home runs each.
Thus, the answer to the question is No, there have not been three baseball players who have ever led off a game with three home runs.
I'm fairly certain it's happened before
I just asked ai online:
Conclusion: Given this analysis and based on available data, it can be concluded that there has not been an instance where three different players have led off a game with three home runs each.
Thus, the answer to the question is No, there have not been three baseball players who have ever led off a game with three home runs.
The bold there I think is the problem. I'm almost certain I can remember it happening a couple of times. If you consider how many.times a leadoff hitter has homered, the idea that the next 2 hitters have never followed that by going back to back seems almost impossible.
BAL v TEX on 5-12-2010
ARI v WAS on 7-21-2017
Cool. Is that the only one? If we look at it a bit generically, wild ball park figure about 3% of atbats are home runs??, then it looks like an expectation of about 1-in-27,000 trial/games? Looks like there has been about 238,000 MLB games played. Of course in the dead ball era the games hardly count toward this stat, as I'm sure it was zero occurrences pre-1920.
Obviously traditionally 1 and 2-hole hitters are lower HR% types, and 3-hole is higher. Not holding so true in the leadoff spot anymore, of course.
Anyway, interesting stat and occurrence. So apparently the only occurrence is at Great American Ballpark, something I drive right past virtually under many weekends going to Hard Rock Cincinnati, and been to a couple times.
Elly De La Cruz has 61 SB's, 61 RBIs, 61 XBHs, and needs two walks for 61. 61 Trifecta going for superfecta. He's having a good year. Much improved walks/OB. Just doesn't seem like enough runs for all the times on base, all the steals, all the XBH. He has 90 and gonna get just past 100 maybe, but its seems he should be up around 125 or so with this combination of stats.
LOL yanks not adding Jasson. It will be a very unfun Guardians/Phils WS. Congrats on the title Cleveland.
Elly De La Cruz has 61 SB's, 61 RBIs, 61 XBHs, and needs two walks for 61. 61 Trifecta going for superfecta. He's having a good year. Much improved walks/OB. Just doesn't seem like enough runs for all the times on base, all the steals, all the XBH. He has 90 and gonna get just past 100 maybe, but its seems he should be up around 125 or so with this combination of stats.
He's turned a lot of grounders into flyballs, which is really good for him, considering his power.
2023
55.3% GB rate
18.3% FB rate
2024
46.1% GB rate
24.9% FB rate
This shift without any drop in EV has upped his barrel rate from 8.5% to 12.3%.
The K rate is still really high (29.6%), but it's better than 2023 (33.7%) and his BB rate is up to 10% from 8.2% (which is huge for his 99th-percentile speed.
His contact rate will never be high, but if he keeps turning Ks into BBs and GBs into FBs with maturity, watch out.
Im starting to think this might not be the Braves’ year.
:(
uh, I'm a crads fan so I'd be thrilled with that. But it's not happening.
I just got back from cradsland and watching the crads vs. Yankees series with family. They're in disbelief the crads won the series. I'm also starting to think that Helsley is one of the greatest relievers of modern times. But I've seen nothing to indicate the crads are suddenly a NL playoff team this season.
Hey *stros turns out paying your nut to a 44 year old pitcher with 3 tommy johns isn't a good idea.
Spoiler
I don't know the numbers of age or injuries or care to look them up, but they're close.
He's turned a lot of grounders into flyballs, which is really good for him, considering his power.
2023
55.3% GB rate
18.3% FB rate
2024
46.1% GB rate
24.9% FB rate
This shift without any drop in EV has upped his barrel rate from 8.5% to 12.3%.
The K rate is still really high (29.6%), but it's better than 2023 (33.7%) and his BB rate is up to 10% from 8.2% (which is huge for his 99th-percentile speed.
His contact rate will never be high, but if he keeps turning Ks into BBs and GBs into FBs with maturity,
Very good or elite athletes who actually know how to hit -- Ohtani, Trout, Acuna, Witt, Betts, etc. -- end up being superstars for as long as they stay healthy. The margin for error for very good or elite athletes who don't really know how to hit --Javy Baez, BJ Upton, Trevor Story, etc. -- is much thinner. They tend to be very good, and sometimes superstar level, during the time when their physical skills are at their peak. But when their skills start to diminish, or they get out of rhythm because of injury, the decline can be scary. I am tempted to put Elly DLC in this latter category, but in his favor, he is a truly elite athlete.
