Should I call this river probe?

I don't suggest opening for 12 like ever in a 2/5 game, start with at least 3x or 4x but what do I know since you got it heads up...

Just fold the river, I would think he's likely got at least Qx. Looks more like a value bet than a probe.

i'd call lol. think jack and ace are both pretty good blockers and see a bunch of potential air. flop i don't mind checking. id think AQ around the bottom of value range for this sizing in practice and maybe not even that

while flop is probably fine in isolation i think you do better checking since so few turns to put in money and realistically i don't think flop bet accomplishes much beyond making the hand easier to play (and not getting punished bc they dont raise enough)

Damn, how do I petition my casino to have white chips play in 2/5+?

I’d mostly check flop.

Call now readless.

Hand is played fine, pre included(kinda). Call river.

I'm sure this forum will tell you a tight BB never has bluffs here but they're obviously wrong.

I’d call. The sizing is kind of scary, but $40 is not a big bet for a $2/$5 game even though it’s an overbet.

I think Villain’s range in arriving to the river is very wide (defending against tiny raise pre and small flop bet) and you’ve given him the green light to bluff by checking back turn. A lot of live players are not going to be used to this spot because normally they face larger raises and larger cbets. This could lead to overbluffing.

didnt see pre. man even if 12 was somehow the actual mathematically certain correct number, id have a really hard time actually doing it in practice. if you want to open small just minraise (probably just 3x bc life is short and rake is high), the 12 thing looks way too nitty. u r gonna look like a european robot in the worst way possible if you consistently open to this and whatever fractional ev u think u gain, im sure you're giving back by slowing the game down.

gk has good point that they prob have more air than they're aware of bc annoying pre size

is snap call in solver vs 150% (w no Ah) so you'd need a pretty good reason to fold here

Thanks for the answers guys.

Usually I would be calling here but this time I decided to get creative seeing as I'm blocking his rivered value and I've also got the nut flush blocker. I raised to $200, which I figured was enough to get a tight player to fold most Qx. Villain tanks and folds. But perhaps my hand has too much showdown value to turn into a bluff?

Ooops, yes, the 4 is meant to be a club, sorry guys - have updated it.

if the suits are wrong, id expect large overfold ott to 150% (if you have bdnfdb)

am unconvinced he pots Qx when bd flush comes in to be honest but think its wp. could also call

So you think I should go to 150% pot on the turn? I did consider betting again once I got the BDNFDB.

Call

Ran a solve on this one to see if Pio might like using this combo as a bluff. It does about 10% of the time. Interesting to note that I had to add an extra raise size in the input part of the solve, as I went to 5x on this river. So that means it's possible to compare the EVs of three different raise sizes on this river - 3x, 5x and all-in. Only the 3x raise is plus EV, and the bigger sizes are minus EV plays. Calling is also plus EV but it's very marginal, with an EV of 1.26 and a pot size of about 130 if hero calls:

I messed up this comment admin, please remove.

Ran a solve on this one to see if Pio might like using this combo as a bluff. It does about 10% of the time. Interesting to note that I had to add an extra raise size in the input part of the solve, as I went to 5x on this river. So that means it's possible to compare the EVs of three different raise sizes on this river - 3x, 5x and all-in. Only the 3x raise is plus EV, and the bigger sizes are minus EV plays. Calling is also plus EV but it's very marginal, with an EV of 1.26 and a pot size of about 130 if hero calls: