NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

where's Bama?

11th

12th should be Arkansas 1st half. 133rd should be Arkansas 2nd half (sorry Temple).

Didn't he accept the job at TAMU before they switched to Elko?

Might as well always do a top 11 (unless a group of 5 legit belongs up there then do a top 12) cuz if you're not in the top 11 you're effectively irrelevant.

Colorado have the greatest ever DB coaching them and yet Raiola carved them up. You don't know wtf you're on about.

Did you enjoy the chaos last week? Well, get ready for even more, because SEVEN ranked teams are on the road this week!

THURSDAY
Arizona State -2 19:30:00
Texas State 2.5 19:30:00
A pretty spicy Thursday night game! ASU was projected as the worst team in the B12, but then beat the living daylights out of Wyoming and then beat Mississippi State at home. Texas State is projected to win their division in the sun belt and is a dark horse MM playoff candidate who is also 2-0 after spanking UTSA. A win here might make the difference in a playoff bid for Texas State conditional on them winning the SBC.

FRIDAY
Arizona 7 20:00:00
Kansas State -6.5 20:00:00
Another one of these stupid "nonconference" games that absolutely destroy the B12 this year. Both teams are 2-0 and ranked. Arizona set a bunch of records against New Mexico in the opener, then kind of struggled with NAU? Tetairoa McMillan had 10 catches for 304 yards and 4 TDs in the opener, and then against NAU had... 2 catches for 11 yards? No clue. For their part, Kansas State just earned a solid road win at Tulane, although it was a truly back and forth game and they needed a scoop and six as well as a miraculous goal line stand to survive.

UNLV +7
Kansas -7
UNLV is another playoff canddate from the Mid Majors. They already own a P4 win, stomping Houston (who just hung with Oklahoma!) while Kansas needs to recover from losing at Illinois. UNLV also plays Syracuse at home, if they scoop both of these P4 games they'll be the only MM team with three P4 wins. Even if they split, I think they'll be the only one with TWO such wins.

SATURDAY
Memphis 5.5 12:00:00
Florida State -5.5 12:00:00
Hoooo boy is there a lot at stake here. Boise acquitted themselves as well as possible without winning at Oregon. At stake for Memphis is possibly a playoff bid. At stake for FSU is an 0-3 start.

North Texas 9.5 12:00:00
Texas Tech -9.5 12:00:00

Oklahoma State -20 12:00:00
Tulsa 20.5 12:00:00

Boston College +16.5
Missouri -16.5
I deservedly made fun of Mizzou's schedule a lot, but through no effort of their own, it *has* gotten slightly tougher with both BC and Vandy showing a pulse. The most likely scenario is that BC and GT and Cuse and FSU all do actually suck, but if FSU is actually decent, then all four might be better than you think. (Although I doubt BC is actually the #24 team in the country)

Alabama -15.5 12:00:00
Wisconsin 15.5 12:00:00
Bama took care of business against WKU and then played with their food for 3.5 quarters against USF. Wisconsin is 2-0 but hasn't looked good yet. Huge playoff implications in this one for both teams

LSU -7 12:00:00
South Carolina 7.5 12:00:00
USCe struggled with ODU in the opener then smashed Kentucky on the road in week 2. LSU looks to bounce back from that opening loss to USC.

Arkansas State 24.5 12:00:00
Michigan -23.5 12:00:00

Cincinnati -2.5 12:00:00
Miami (OH) 2.5 12:00:00

Central Michigan 18.5 12:00:00
Illinois -17.5 12:00:00

Louisiana Tech 21 12:00:00
North Carolina State -20.5 12:00:00

Massachusetts 4.5 13:00:00
Buffalo -4.5 13:00:00

Tulane 13.5 15:30:00
Oklahoma -13.5 15:30:00
Tulane was inches away from OT with K State and had plenty of opportunities to win the game. Oklahoma looks vulnerable with a sputtering offense.

Nevada 14.5 15:30:00
Minnesota -14.5 15:30:00

Oregon -13.5 15:30:00
Oregon State 14.5 15:30:00
This weekend, I think one thing that all college football fans can agree on is that we are all BEAVS and we are all COUGS

Washington State 4.5 15:30:00
Washington -4 15:30:00
Also, Wazzu is spicy as hell? Their quarterback can realy scoot, they score tons of points and their defense is pretty decent! If they can pull the mini upset here, that's two solid wins (they just beat Texas Tech last week), and they have Fresno, Boise and Oregon State left on the schedule. If they go 12-0 or 11-1 might they actually be able to secure an at-large playoff bid?? Wouldn't that be a hell of a story?

Texas A&M -3.5 15:30:00
Florida 3.5 15:30:00
Both teams are hovering over their panic buttons, but only one fan base will smash it

West Virginia -2.5 15:30:00
Pittsburgh 2.5 15:30:00
Backyard brawl is back baby! Pitt scored 22 straight to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat at Cincy and is 2-0. WVU bounced back against FCS semifinalist Albany after losing a sloppy one to Penn State in the opener.

Ball State 36.5 15:30:00
Miami -36.5 15:30:00

Appalachian State -2.5 16:00:00
East Carolina 2.5 16:00:00

Troy 22.5 16:00:00
Iowa -22.5 16:00:00

UAB 21.5 16:15:00
Arkansas -20.5 16:15:00

Utah -21.5 16:30:00
Utah State 21.5 16:30:00
USU is not good but it's a ranked team playing an in-state rival on the road so...

Florida International 6 18:00:00
Florida Atlantic -5.5 18:00:00

Virginia Tech -13.5 18:00:00
Old Dominion 14 18:00:00
I don't know why VT is going TO odu, that sounds like a recipe for disaster. They took care of business against Marshall after losing to a (possibly decent?) Vandy team in the opener

UConn 17.5 18:00:00
Duke -16.5 18:00:00

UTEP 23.5 18:00:00
Liberty -22.5 18:00:00

Mississippi -23.5 18:30:00
Wake Forest 23.5 18:30:00
[Jalen Hurts voice] Technically you are right, this is a ranked team on the road in a P4 OOC game

South Florida -11.5 19:00:00
Southern Miss 11.5 19:00:00

UTSA 34.5 19:00:00
Texas -33.5 19:00:00

Hawaii 3.5 19:00:00
Sam Houston -3 19:00:00

Kennesaw State 20.5 19:00:00
San Jose State -19.5 19:00:00

Vanderbilt -9.5 19:00:00
Georgia State 10 19:00:00
I'll give them a bold. Is the world ready for 3-0 Vanderbilt?

Jacksonville State 2.5 19:00:00
Eastern Michigan -1.5 19:00:00

Western Kentucky -7.5 19:00:00
Middle Tenn. St 7.5 19:00:00

Air Force 15.5 19:30:00
Baylor -14.5 19:30:00

Colorado -7.5 19:30:00
Colorado State 7.5 19:30:00
Colorado better win this, or else they're looking down at a guantlet, with 5 ranked teams (and UCF) left on the schedule. Could be some bad blood here after last year.

New Mexico 28.5 19:30:00
Auburn -27.5 19:30:00
New Mexico has a chance to do the funniest thing...

Georgia -23.5 19:30:00
Kentucky 24.5 19:30:00
I had this circled as a potential trap game earlier in the year, but Kentucky looked absolutely horrible last week. Still, ranked teams on the road...

Toledo 10 19:30:00
Mississippi State -9.5 19:30:00

Central Florida 2.5 19:30:00
TCU -1.5 19:30:00
This is a super under the radar game, but I think both of these teams have a good chance at surprising this year.

Indiana -2.5 19:30:00
UCLA 3 19:30:00
Forget 3-0 Vanderbilt, is the world ready for 3-0 (4-0? 5-0? holy crap, maybe 8-0???) Indiana? They imported JMU's coach and 9 players, and look pretty solid so far against weak competition

Kent 47.5 19:45:00
Tennessee -47.5 19:45:00

Rice 5.5 20:00:00
Houston -4.5 20:00:00

Maryland -2 20:00:00
Virginia 2.5 20:00:00

BYU -8.5 21:00:00
Wyoming 9.5 21:00:00

New Mexico State 20.5 22:30:00
Fresno State -19.5 22:30:00

San Diego State 18 22:30:00
California -17.5 22:30:00
Excuse me while I ride high as Cal is 2-0 after INVADING AUBURN ALABAMA AND DEFEATING THEM WITH THE WOKE LIBERAL AGENDA. Losing to SDSU would be the most Cal thing ever though. However, if we avoid that, we have a road trip at reeling FSU, then Miami at home then... not a whole lot?

What betting sites have playoff odds

all of them?

draftkings and fanduel already have them up

caesars and betmgm and betrivers are slower

betonline is slow too but has them

"Oregon went toe to toe with Boise before winning, so we gotta drop them past Penn State who went absolutely toe to toe with... Bowling Green"

Resume rankings:

1 NIU (@ Notre Dame)
2 USC (n LSU)
3 Texas (@ Michigan)
4 Cal (@ Auburn)
5 Georgia (n Clemson)
6 Miami (@ Florida)
7 Boston College (@ FSU)
8 Iowa State (@ Iowa)
9 Penn State (@ WVU)
10 Oklahoma State (v Arkansas, v SDSU)
11 South Carolina (@ Kentucky, v ODU)
12 BYU (@ SMU)

Nobody with a marquee win has a second solid win except OK State, who absolutely did not deserve to beat Arkansas

In week 2 it gets a little tricky since your game against the opponent counts for a lot - i.e. if Texas and Georgia and Miami didn't beat the crap out of their opponents, their opponents would actually still be rated higher. The ideal way to do this is is to remove your game against each opponent when rating that opponent, but I am too lazy to do that.

A lot of these are realllly close so don't get too bent out of shape about the exact rankings

also a rematch of LY's bowl game...where UNLV got badly outgained and lost by 2 TD.

UNLV has looked better than I was expecting so far this season tbh. imho this is UNLVs toughest game on their schedule. If they win this (which I am skeptical of), I will officially be on the "they can go undefeated" bandwagon.

CSU +7.5 is the overlay of the week. Game should be a PK'em. CSU has been crap this season but so have the BUFFS (let's be honest). LY game went to OT, CSU returns a bunch of the same players who played in that game and CU has not improved their roster in any discernable way.

Hey we are still ranked,
and playing on the road, at Purdue, who is coming off a bye.

Goldenbears, maybe Tech was thinking about the fertile Hampton Roads recruiting area, and/or is it a 2 for 1 with ODU?

Edit: ok I misread something

surejan.gif

I continue to just not understand this

I maxed out USC +525 before the LSU game

Somehow they were +380 after beating LSU and I maxed it again

Then this week after all three of their toughest opponents (Michigan, ND, Penn State) underperformed the spreads by like a zillion points, and USC went and shut out Utah State they were still +280. Even now, they are available at +200.

I have them at 46% to win 10+ games, and their current win total is 9.5 +115/-145

They are just a mortal ****ing lock at 10-2. Worst case scenario is they lose to Notre Dame in the last game and at Penn State (these are actually worse games to lose than Maryland or Wisconsin bc they deprive you of a quality win and also give h2h to somebody else vying directly for the playoff). Even in that case, they have wins over LSU, Michigan, Wisconsin and/or Nebraska will probably be ranked, Just a mortal lock at 10-2.

And as I said above, they're even live at 9-3 - say they lose at Michigan, vs Penn State and trap game @ Maryland, they finish 9-3 with wins over Notre Dame, LSU, and finish with five wins in a row.

Plus, they could do something like lose to Notre Dame, @ Maryland and @ Washington and then win the B1G anyway for an auto bid. They'd have 2 losses with h2h over Michigan and Penn State. Ohio State runs the table (which gives Oregon, Penn State and Michigan a loss), Oregon loses an extra game, and bang you're in there.

Not to mention that 10-2 being 45% is already insanely +EV at +200!!!! I just don't understand, even without all the 9-3 freerolling

Closest I can figure is Vegas is somehow using last year's USC defense as their strong bayesian prior and isn't yet moved by solid performances after 2 games, which makes no sense to me. They took in a billion four star transfers and have an entirely new DC with a great track record of success. My prior for them was "average" and they've vastly exceeded that so far

You laughed at me for UNLV 60-1 playoff!

They get Boise at home, so this is definitely their toughest game remaining.

I think they are very live for the mid major bid even if they lose here.

Houston (who looked great against Oklahoma), Kansas, Syracuse, Fresno, Boise, and Oregon State is SIX decent teams.

I think 12-1 UNLV goes over everybody but maybe undefeated Memphis and undefeated NIU (maybe 1 loss NIU if the 1 loss is to somebody other than NC State)

Also, don't rule out the possibility of TWO mid major bids - 12-1 UNLV and 13-0 Memphis could both be ranked ahead of a P4 champion. Ideal scenario is something like FSU winning all 6 remaining ACC games but losing to Memphis (obviously) as well as Florida. They play both Miami and Clemson, so a good shot they'd make their way to the title game at 6-2.

Or Virginia Tech loses to Rutgers then loses an ACC game then wins the conference at 10-3. Or WV loses to Pitt and then drops a B12 game and wins the conference at 10-3. Or Kansas themselves (who already lost to Illinois) losing to UNLV then dropping another B12 game and winning the conf at 10-3

Liberty plays 1. Memphis plays only 2, since UTSA just got annihilated. The Sun Belt hasn't scored a P4 win yet and will likely cannibalize. App State is the biggest threat with the ability to beat Liberty at home, but they just lost to Clemson by a thousand.

The MAC (???) Somehow suddenly looks dangerous - NIU has the best mid major win so far @ ND, and has another chance to win one @ NC State.

Miami Ohio lost close @ Northwestern and gets Cincinnati at home (and also plays @ ND lol)

BGSU was 4 points away from the greatest weekend in MAC history

Toledo gets a shot @ Mississippi State

Also, it's sort of gone below the radar, but the bottom of the B12 and the SEC is really outperforming, which is bad news for lots of teams in the playoff

The bottom of the B12 is ASU, Houston and BYU. BYU is 2-0 with an OOC road win at SMU. ASU is 2-0 with a dominating win over Wyoming and an SEC win over Miss St. Houston almost just beat Oklahoma

And the bottom of the SEC is Vandy, Miss St, Arkansas and South Carolina. Vandy beat an ACC contender in VT, Miss St has looked somewhat competent, Arkansas should've beaten Ok State if they hadn't played like the dumbest team in the universe, but I am almost certain they are gonna pull a big upset this season (they get Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas at home, and play @ Mizzou), and I don't know what to make of USCe

wow, I take it back - the SEC's schedule is absolutely built to pile teams into the playoffs

The top 7 teams are Georgia, Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri and LSU

Mizzou ducks FIVE of the top 6 opponents - they play only Bama in addition to four auto wins in noncon

Texas ducks FIVE of the top 6, playing only UGA

Ole Miss ducks FOUR of the top 6, playing UGA and LSU in addition to four auto wins in noncon

Bama (UGA, Tenn, Mizzou, LSU) and Georgia (Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee) get ****ed somehow

So if UGA and Bama are good enough to go 10-2 or 9-3, they're in, Texas is in, then Mizzou and Ole Miss and Tennessee have comparative cakewalks the rest of the way.

Could totally see all six teams get in, especially if LSU is bad

Purdue money line

ISU playoff +900 is also great

I have them at 8% to go 11-1 or 12-0, and 18% to go 10-2. 10-2 might just straight up get them there given their OOC win at Iowa, but also includes lots of combos where they win the B12 too

I bet Illinois to playoff. Though I couldn't get it 80-1