Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
We've discussed it before, I don't quite buy in to that interpretation of The Sudetenland. At the very least it was a major mistake to give it up without a fight.
The war will end in a negotiated settlement. The peace proposals early on were built entirely on trusting Putin as there were no guarantees and multiple stipulations to hamstring Ukraine. Anyone arguing for that peace proposal is essentially saying that Ukraine should have just trusted Putin. Ukraine is working hard to make it so that future peace deals won't require that level of trust in Putin's goodwill, but they're still quite far off.
I can the find links later if you want but after the papers were released it was clear the military advice to Chamberlain was to delay the war until late 1939 rather than fight now. It's also unquestionable that Chamberlain rearmed and prepared very seriously. I dont know if it was a military mistake or not - it's very hard to say imo.
The war will end in a negotiated settlement. The peace proposals early on were built entirely on trusting Putin as there were no guarantees and multiple stipulations to hamstring Ukraine. Anyone arguing for that peace proposal is essentially saying that Ukraine should have just trusted Putin. Ukraine is working hard to make it so that future peace deals won't require that level of trust in Putin's goodwill, but they're still quite far off.
I agree with this although so much about what matters wont be in the deal. It really comes down to are we going to prepare seriously to combat tthe threat of putin or will we sink back into complacency.
It's been years since I read about it, but the area that was given to Hitler was extremely mountainous and pretty much ideal for defending. A lot of military production facilities were handed over as well, which then produced weapons for the Nazis.
I agree that how we prepare going forward is a big concern. Ukraine does not really trust Europe or USA which shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. Europe, especially Germany, pretty much funded this war and let their defense industrial complex get to a state that it needed several years to jump start. When it came time to jump start it, they opted to keep stalling on do it in the hope that Ukraine could end the war quickly. There's no guarantee that Europe keeps producing military aid if there's a peace negotiation.
Meanwhile USA has signaled that they will be moving towards the Pacific for some time, and is already heading in that direction.
That's the reason it seems a mistake. Then again france had what was considered the most powerful army in the world, what was considered impenetrable defenses against a German invasion and Britain at its side. It was a cakewalk for Germany and the war was nearly done.
France forgot to use their defenses, so might have made more sense that how it played out.
If we imagine a world where a deal had been done to prevent the invasion of france then people would argue it was a clearly a big mistake because france was so powerful. I don't know how much of the sudatenland defenses were equiped against modern warfare (back then)or how much could be bypassed like the maginot line was. I genuinely don t know how it would have palyed out if Chamberlain has held the line in 38 rather than 39.
Anyway back to the modern day. We're pretty much in agreement. The west and Europe in particular has to get it's act together militarily and otherwise. I'm not betting on it. We would much rather blame the disease than prevent it.
We've discussed it before, I don't quite buy in to that interpretation of The Sudetenland. At the very least it was a major mistake to give it up without a fight.
The Czechs themselves, with an army as large and well-equipped as the Reichswehr at that time, chose to give up without a fight. They wanted the British and French to do all the fighting for them, which wasn't going to happen. Churchill's view that 'the French with nearly sixty or seventy divisions could most certainly have rolled forward across the Rhine and into the Ruhr' was a fantasy. The French army was morally incapable of offensive action and had been since 1916. It was only prepared to sit tight on the Maginot Line waiting to surrender as soon as the Germans attacked (which is what actually happened in 1940). As for Britain, its army hadn't completed the mechanisation and re-equipment programme that Chamberlain put in place, and the RAF was mostly biplanes. At the time of Munich, only five Spitfires were in service (with No.19 Squadron at Duxford). They didn't have guns -- the guns wouldn't arrive till November -- and they were unreliable due to inherent faults in the Merlin II engine (like the starter-motor gearing) which was due to be replaced by the improved Merlin III. There were five Hurricane squadrons, but they were all non-operational due to teething problems -- neither the guns nor the oxygen system would work above 15,000 feet, and these problems were not solved till the spring of 1939. The bomber squadrons were still flying biplanes which would be replaced with Hampdens and Wellingtons in the next few months. Meanwhile the Chain Home radar early-warning system was completed. In the year that Chamberlain's Munich deal bought us, the fighting effectiveness of the British Army and the RAF increased beyond all measure, certainly beyond any measure the enemy had calculated for. And this was critical because of the political weakness of the French, which meant everything depended on Britain holding out when France fell.
Vlad is claiming he'll be ever so cross and throw his toys out of the pram if the British and Americans agree to let Ukraine use long-range missiles against Russian offensive bases. Starmer is meeting Biden at the moment and the BBC think they probably will agree to call Vlad's bluff and allow Ukraine to defend itself in that manner.
The Czechs did not want France and UK to do the fighting for them, and much of the military did end up fighting during WW2. The country was not going to sacrifice the civilian population if they were going to get no support.
It's entirely possible that if helping them was agreed upon then they could have bogged down Germany while UK got themselves into fighting shape.
The French were also not waiting to surrender lol. They did not understand basic defence and failed to to use the Maginot Line, but they still fought.
I do not trust the current narrative regarding the long range strikes at all. Russia has been moving planes out of strike distance for awhile now. It's almost certain that USA has signalled to Russia that they will allow Ukraine to strike into Russia and has warned them to pull back assets. The announcement should have been via blowing up airfield, not however it has actually happened. Still a net win for Ukraine, but a continuation of Sullivan's fear of escalation strategy which always seems to involve too little too late.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
Russia Sharing Nuclear Secrets With Iran Fuels US, UK Worries
Not super related but it appears the newest trump shooter was recruiting for the foreign legion in Ukraine and that seems to be a likely motive for the attempt because obviously trumps bad for Ukraine . It wont get talked about but Ukraine should be on the hotseat for working with this guy. There is a video where he was trying to recruit a famous youtuber to fight for Ukraine. He was also in kiev for something
https://x.com/i/status/18354624652383113...
Ryan Routh, the man named in multiple media reports as a suspect in an apparent assassination attempt on Donald Trump on Sunday, was one of thousands of foreign volunteers who headed to Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
But on arrival in the Polish border town of Medyka, he turned up at the office of the Ukrainian international legion only to be rejected. “They said ‘You’re 56, you’re old and you have no experience’,” Routh, speaking from Hawaii, told the Financial Times in an interview last year. “So why don’t you recruit and co-ordinate?”
cia aint sending their best
Its pretty low but it isn't zero and that's scary but its crazy how they already know more about him in 10 hours then the other one in months. There's like hours of videos on this guy out there
he was in an Azov video bc of course.
ya I read he was working with azov in 2014 too. and he had some crazy crack pot plan about recruiting Afghanistan soldiers because we know they love the russians.
"Routh also often posted about the war in Ukraine and traveled to the nation in 2022 to recruit ex-Afghan soldiers who fled the Taliban to fight, according to the New York Times. "
my bad it was in 2022 when he did his trip to kiev . he appeared in an azov recruitment video. This guy got around lol.
Explain to me why deleting this guys facebook and twitter is going to help in their investigation why is this a thing. They did the same **** with the last assassin so of course they found out nothing. everything they do makes me slightly more of a crazy person like victor. Why do they need to censor this this is what we accuse Russia of doing
bc our government and corporations are the leaders in "controlling the narrative" aka mis/disinformation.
social media and modern elections is so weird. Like its logical to hide his political beliefs because one solo idiot with a gun shouldn't be allowed to move polls and effect an election one month away. but that also might be election interference.
This is my favorite deleted tweet so far
“Soldiers, please do not call me. We are still trying to get Ukraine to accept Afghan soldiers and hope to have some answers in the coming months,” one of Routh’s posts reads. If you are interested in fighting in Ukraine, you must have a passport and send it to me by way of Whatsapp. You must also have the money to purchase an airplane ticket to Moldova, if you cannot afford the cost you cannot go. We are also trying to get Taiwan to accept soldiers hopefully in the coming years. Please have patience. Ryan.”
Western allies bought roughly $2 billion in fuel made from Russian oil in the first half of 2024, using a sanctions loophole that enables Moscow to pay its soldiers in Ukraine, an upcoming report seen by POLITICO has found.
The analysis, set to be unveiled jointly on Tuesday by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the Center for the Study of Democracy, determined that shipments of gasoline, diesel and other products made from Russian crude oil have grown in recent months as a result of imports from just three Turkish refineries.
The imports are technically legal due to a well-known sanctions workaround. While the EU and its Western allies banned nearly all Russian oil imports long ago, countries can still buy fuel of Russian origin if it is first processed in another country, such as Turkey.
According to the report, Turkey — and the Western firms buying from it — is taking increasing advantage of this so-called refining loophole, despite repeated Ukrainian pleas that it be closed.
In the first half of 2024 alone, the EU, U.S., U.K. and other Western allies bought around $2 billion worth of fuel made from Russian oil by the trio of Turkish facilities, the report found. Turkey, meanwhile, has cashed in on discounts of from $5 to $20 per barrel from Moscow, stepping up its purchases from Russia annually by 34 percent in 2023 and a colossal 70 percent this year.
https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-ar...
A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000.
The high—and fast-rising—tolls on both sides highlight what will be a devastating long-term effect for countries that were struggling with population declines before the war mainly because of economic turmoil and social upheavals. They also illuminate one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own motivations behind launching the invasion in 2022: to boost Russia’s population by absorbing Ukrainians. Russia’s invasions and capture of Ukrainian territory over the past decade have caused Ukraine to lose at least 10 million people under occupation or as refugees, according to government estimates and demographers.
Putin has long declared addressing Russia’s chronic demographic decline a priority, and the Kremlin has since embarked on a campaign of Russifying occupied territories, including large-scale abduction of children and pressuring Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship. In the occupied Donbas region, selling property and other transactions now require obtaining Russian citizenship.
The effect could be enduring. Alongside military deaths, Ukraine’s birthrate also collapsed to the lowest recorded level: In the first half of this year, three times as many people died as were born, according to government data. Some 250,000 deaths and over 87,000 births were recorded in this period, which is 9% less than the same period last year, according to government figures. In 2021, the year before the full-scale invasion, over 130,000 births were recorded.
Russia’s way of war is also aimed at making Ukraine unlivable. Russian missile-and-drone attacks have knocked out large parts of Ukraine’s energy grid, including power stations, which could drive many more Ukrainians to seek refuge outside the country this winter if it leads to major electricity and heat outages.
One of the key reasons Zelensky refuses to mobilize the key cohort of men aged between 18 and 25—typically the bulk of any fighting force—is because most of these people haven’t had children yet, according to the former Ukrainian officials. Should the recruits of that age group die or become incapacitated, future demographic prospects would dim further, Ukrainian demographers say.
Explain to me why deleting this guys facebook and twitter is going to help in their investigation why is this a thing. They did the same **** with the last assassin so of course they found out nothing. everything they do makes me slightly more of a crazy person like victor. Why do they need to censor this this is what we accuse Russia of doing
I presumed the data isn't gone, just not available to us, while investigators are supplied with all the content
Man who appeared intent on killing Trump wrote a book urging Iran to assassinate the ex-president
MOIS isn't sending their best (or who knows maybe this is their best?)
pgb down atrocious, these ukraine freaks smdh
No idea what you're trying to say other than calling Ukrainians freaks.
