Russian Invasion of Ukraine
More purges in Russia for being too patriotic:
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] ft article "Russia dia...
A senior Ukrainian military intelligence official said Russia had so far committed 38,000 men, including assault brigades redeployed from southern Ukraine, but the counter-attack was “still not large-scale”. It would need to send in more of its battle-hardened assault brigades to make more than “tactical” gains, the official added.
Zelenskyy has said that Russia will need about 100,000 troops to push his forces out.
Officials say mobilisation is on track, but that it would take another three months before the newly-trained troops could make an impact on the battlefield, the head of the defence committee of Ukraine’s parliament, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, told the FT.
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Politico article "As B...
RECRUITMENT
Kyiv Independent article "Ukrainian mili...
Kyiv Independent article "Western aid no...
MILITARY PRODUCTION AND MILITARY AID
Budanov says Iskander production has inc...
Bloomberg article "Russia Sharing Nuclea...
HYBRID WARFARE AND PROPAGANDA
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Galeotti for The Spect...
The answer lies in Putin’s assumptions about the West. He was, it seems, taken aback by the West’s unity and willingness to assume costs in order to place sanctions on Russia and support Ukraine after the February 2022 invasion. However, there is a sense in Kremlin circles that western publics have also lost sight of the costs of this arm’s-length involvement in the war. As one Russian think tanker close to government circles put it to me, ‘you just write a cheque every month and let us and the Ukrainians do the suffering.’
[...]
As a result, the chatter in Moscow is that the Kremlin is thinking that if European people can be made to feel that the war is directly affecting their lives for the worse, they will pressure their leaders to impose an ugly peace on Ukraine that will allow Putin to claim victory.
BATTLE CLIPS
Russian column hit by artillery and dron...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Politico article "Zelenskyy was urged no...
MILITARY AID
Politico article "As Biden deliberates, ...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Another "large scale drone attack" again...
Probably the largest depot explosion to ...
RECRUITMENT AND CASUALTY ESTIMATES
WSJ article "One Million Are Now Dead or...
Spoiler
A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000.
The high—and fast-rising—tolls on both sides highlight what will be a devastating long-term effect for countries that were struggling with population declines before the war mainly because of economic turmoil and social upheavals. They also illuminate one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own motivations behind launching the invasion in 2022: to boost Russia’s population by absorbing Ukrainians. Russia’s invasions and capture of Ukrainian territory over the past decade have caused Ukraine to lose at least 10 million people under occupation or as refugees, according to government estimates and demographers.
Putin has long declared addressing Russia’s chronic demographic decline a priority, and the Kremlin has since embarked on a campaign of Russifying occupied territories, including large-scale abduction of children and pressuring Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship. In the occupied Donbas region, selling property and other transactions now require obtaining Russian citizenship.
The effect could be enduring. Alongside military deaths, Ukraine’s birthrate also collapsed to the lowest recorded level: In the first half of this year, three times as many people died as were born, according to government data. Some 250,000 deaths and over 87,000 births were recorded in this period, which is 9% less than the same period last year, according to government figures. In 2021, the year before the full-scale invasion, over 130,000 births were recorded.
Russia’s way of war is also aimed at making Ukraine unlivable. Russian missile-and-drone attacks have knocked out large parts of Ukraine’s energy grid, including power stations, which could drive many more Ukrainians to seek refuge outside the country this winter if it leads to major electricity and heat outages.
One of the key reasons Zelensky refuses to mobilize the key cohort of men aged between 18 and 25—typically the bulk of any fighting force—is because most of these people haven’t had children yet, according to the former Ukrainian officials. Should the recruits of that age group die or become incapacitated, future demographic prospects would dim further, Ukrainian demographers say.
Tatarigami on Ukraine's demographic cris...
Carnegie Endowment article "Russian Mili...
PROPAGANDA
Vsquare article "Leaked Files from Putin...
12 year sentence for woman who donated $...
SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Politico article "West funding Putin’s s...
WSJ article "How Russia Profits From Ukr...
ARMENIA
BATTLE CLIPS
Turtle tank and IFV attack position and ...
Bradley struck by multiple ATGMS and cre...
Thread on Ukrainian drone unit
MILITARY AID
Ukrainian watches as Russian bomber laun...
EU parliament calls for lifting these re...
Snyder on Russia being able to strike Uk...
Reuters article "Exclusive: Ammunition f...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] WSJ article "Putin Is ...
The exchange highlighted a thorny dilemma facing Putin. While he has resisted a troop mobilization that could come at a political cost, Western estimates suggest Russia is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them.
[...]
“Forces are currently not sufficient to achieve the original war aims, knock Ukraine out of the war, to undermine its military potential or protect border regions of the Russian territory,” said the person briefed on the exchange with Putin. “More and more people are saying mobilization is inevitable.”
[...]
But Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine by throwing successive waves of soldiers at Ukrainian lines. That is leading to a high number of fatalities, with U.K. Defense Minister John Healey telling Parliament this month that the U.K. estimated Russia was losing 1,100 soldiers a day.
In July, Putin tried to boost troop numbers by doubling a one-time payment for new recruits to 400,000 rubles, or roughly $4,300, a huge sum in many parts of Russia. Some 8% of the Russian budget is now dedicated to paying for military personnel, Western officials say.
[...]
Russian leaders also fear that a mobilization could upset a delicate balance that they have tried to strike in the public’s perception of the war. Russian media and state propaganda has sought to portray the war as a heroic but distant conflict. They want Russians to feel they can continue to enjoy a normal life, along with rising incomes and greater redistribution of wealth as a result of the war.
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
The Russian ammo warehouse in Tver burni...
When one of the 3 ammo dumps was hit
Before and after sattelite images
Another view of one of the dumps hit
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on the impo...
RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN
UN predicts every day Ukrainians will be...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Looting Kursk region where Russia has al...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Pravda article "Infant...
RECRUITMENT
[URL="https://x.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1837075032624795672"]"A Duma deputy asks why the Russians army is become a 'pack of bandits' through recruiting criminals?
(The cynical but likely honest answer is to imply that why not, they are unlikely to survive)"[/URL]
BBC article "Volunteers dying as Russia’...
WAGNER
BATTLE CLIPS
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Ukraine likely pulling out of Vuhledar s...
ft article "Military briefing: Russia ‘o...
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
Close up shot of one of the ammo dumps t...
MILITARY AID
WAPO article "Debate over Ukraine weapon...
Long analysis of what is happening with ...
Reuters article "Exclusive: Iran brokeri...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Russia increasing defense spending in 20...
PEACE TALKS
Mark Galeotti "Ukraine has a victory pla...
BATTLE CLIPS
Drone footage of urban warfare in Torets...\
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Russians discuss Russians looting in Kur...
Overview of all of the areas around Pokr...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russian forces in Kurs...
WAR CRIMES
Poland's Minister of Foreign affairs on ...
Glide bomb strikes residential building
MILITARY AID
Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia has s...
WSJ article "U.S. ‘UnimpressedR...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Russia’s tired ‘Hydraulic Ke...
Carnegie Endowment article 'Is a “...
BATTLE CLIPS
Drone drops explosive on drone
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Russian waving flag over Vuhledar city c...
PROPAGANDA
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Foreign Affairs articl...
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...
Carnegie Endowment article "Is Georgia H...
The Georgian Dream party has effectively threatened that if the opposition loses the upcoming election, it may lose legal means of fighting for power in the future. In other words, the authorities themselves are putting the opposition in a situation where street battles are the key to its survival.
BATTLE CLIPS
"Epic video of a Ukrainian fighter defen...
Bradley deploys smoke in Kursk
GEORGIA
CNN article "Alleging ‘Russian special o...
Graph showing the irregularities of the ...
Claim that in some area Georgia Drem rec...
Orban arrives to congratulate Georgia Dr...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Russian oil refinery covered in anti dro...
Russia strikes police station in Kharkiv
ft article "Ukraine and Russia in talks ...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russia's current campa...
RECRUITMENT
NYT article "As Russia Advances, U.S. Fe...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russian tactics and go...
MILITARY AID
Number of shaheds fired by Russia
NORTH KOREA
Zelenskyy video on N Korea sending troop...
Ukraine could strike where North Koreans...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Assessment of Russia u...
WAR CRIMES
Increased sightings of Russian executing...
PEACE TALKS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on directio...
This recent tragedy in the White House inspired me to come back for a few posts.
Here are my predictions from November 7th:
Fighting will intensify until Trump comes into office and what he's got planned is actually known (due to weather it might actually be a reduction in intensity compared to these past few months, but compared to the same months in previous years it will be far more violent unless the weather makes it impossible).I'm not sure about how the rollout of remaining aid will occur, but
And breaking it down:
Fighting will intensify until Trump comes into office and what he's got planned is actually known (due to weather it might actually be a reduction in intensity compared to these past few months, but compared to the same months in previous years it will be far more violent unless the weather makes it impossible).
Ukraine was very lucky with warm weather. This had two major effects: one is that Russia's destruction of Ukraine's power grid last year did not have major consequences. The other is that the warm weather prevents snow from freezing over, so Russians had to crawl through mud. This led to some adaptations such as using donkeys for resupply.
As far as front lines go, nothing has moved since August really. Some optimistic observers think that this means Ukraine has largely countered Russia's current tactics. There's a lot of truth in this. Russia has burned through their Soviet stockpiles at an absurd rate. They've emptied about half of their heavy equipment, and of the half remaining it's estimated that half of that is unusable and the rest is in poor repair. This means that Russians attack on foot. Ukraine has been able to mine effectively using drones which is obviously an excellent count to assaults on foot.
The average assault right now is marching 20km to the front line, potentially under FPV attacks, praying they don't catch the attention of artillery, and then if they reach Ukrainian positions it's a firefight.
I personally think that it's extremely optimistic to assume that this is how Russia is forced to fight the rest of the war, and I also think that a lot of this is due to the weather, but people with more knowledge than me on the subject disagree (although people with more knowledge on the subject than me agree too).
I'm not sure about how the rollout of remaining aid will occur, but Trump has will make it impossible to vote for another package and he will not use his drawdown to help Ukraine.
I think that Biden's final aid packages last through Spring and will finish some time before Summer. Whether or not Europe can pick up the pace if USA is incapable of getting their act together is a big question. I think that Ukraine is firing at a higher rate than they can sustain, which further skews things in their favor at the moment when looking at the current battlefield, but that lasting is also questionable.
Putin and Trump will unleash an absurd amount of propaganda saying that all holdups over the peace deal are due to Ukraine, not Putin.
Trump will try to sell the image that Putin is dealing in earnest and if there's not enough outrage he will just let Putin do whatever he wishes. Since Putin has no desire for peace this means he continues attacking. If there is enough outrage then Trump will have to either resume aid, or figure out a way to reign Putin in and agree to a peace deal that is not Ukrainian capitulation.
I think that this is what we're seeing play out. There's a lot of speculation that what occured in the White House was orchestrated, but it really doesn't matter that much. Either it was orchestrated or the framwork was such that Vance knew he could pick a fight with Zelenskyy and Trump would back him with unleashing an absurd amount of propaganda on top of their already absurd amounts of propaganda.
I don't think that this situation is as hopeless as it looks. Vance said something along the lines that Trump loves Hitler, Rubio was one of Trump's biggest critics. I think it's reversible, and even if it's not, there are ways that Europe picks up the pace regarding getting aid to Ukraine.
I think even with the ammunition problem looming, manpower remains Ukraine's biggest problem. In Kursk it's estimated that North Koreans/Russians outnumber Ukrainians 2 to 1 and that is probably the best ratio on the line. Last Spring Ukraine took some measures which looked like they were going to fix their problems and for a month or two things were looking good, but it did not hold. It looks like they had a good two months again, but it's unsure if it will stay positive this time as well.
There was a lot of speculation on how North Koreans would be used when I left 2p2. So far there's been 4k casualties, and they have been replaced. So it's unclear what Russia's deal is with North Korea, but clearly it's more than just the initial 12k. They are clearly valued less than Russians, they are never tasked with holding a position, they only assault. At first they tried outdated tactics, grouping up and charging, but they learned quickly.
Not taking the time to edit that, so sorry if anyone actually reads this rambling mess.
