Bink the river, now what?
NLHE 5/10
Eff stack 5K.
Hero/villain are the two biggest stacks at the table and have been playing quite a bit against each other.
Villain is a LAG opponent playing down in stakes (typically a 10/10/25 player).
Preflop:
Villain (UTG+3) raises to 35
Folds to hero (BB) with Q♥Q♦
Hero 3 bet BB to 150. Villain calls.
Flop: J♠6♣4♥
Pot 305
Hero c-bets 90. Villain calls.
Turn: J♣
Pot 485
Hero checks. Villain bets 250. Hero calls.
River Q♠
Pot 985
Hero?
Was torn between a check/raise and leading for a few different sizings. My thinking for check/raise is that a J is almost certainly going to bet, which we can raise AND if he doesn't have a J then he might blast off with a bluff which obviously wouldn't call a bet. A small bet might also induce bluff raises (or even value raises from some Jx). I think a last option could be bombing it for 1.3x pot and making it look bluffy, though I'm not sure much anything (including a lone jack) would be able to find a call.
What are your thoughts on the highest EV line here?
10 Replies
I doubt a LAG is going to pass up betting again wether he's got the Jack or not.
I check looking to check raise..
If he's really a lag, check/raise. You could also bet ~$250 to look like a blocking bet and maybe he will take the bait and raise.
I probably go for the second because it would be sick if he checked.
world’s easiest check
Spoiler
Checked and villain snap checked behind. Assuming he had air, but no reveal.
What hands w/o a jack are calling any river bet?
Always check raising in flow. He usually has air or a jack.
Agree that V has either a J or air (his bet ott doesn't seem right anyway though).
Personally, I prefer to lead river, for ~3/4 pot or even slightly bigger, for the following reason.
Sure V will bet with a J after we check, but he should fold most of his JX to a c/r.
On the other hand, V will have a very hard time folding a J to our lead bet, even if this will be quite big.
In other words, I prefer setting my price on the river, rather than letting V setting his own.
The only argument for a check is if we have a read that V tends to overbluff, which is not typical in my experience, especially on the river.
Agree that V has either a J or air (his bet ott doesn't seem right anyway though).
Personally, I prefer to lead river, for ~3/4 pot or even slightly bigger, for the following reason.
Sure V will bet with a J after we check, but he should fold most of his JX to a c/r.
On the other hand, V will have a very hard time folding a J to our lead bet, even if this will be quite big.
In other words, I prefer setting my price on the river, rather than letting V setting his own.
The only argument for a check is
There really is no way to know how much Villain will be willing to put into the pot.
Pre flop looks fine. I'd probably check flop, but a small c-bet seems ok.
Not sure about turn. Barreling small seems ok. Checking seems dangerous. V could check back a lot. We miss value and are going to hate any club, ace or king on the river.
Tough decision on the river. But probably not checking here, against this V, at this stack depth, with this hand, on this run-out. Almost certainly betting.
If we polarize by betting big, hard to see what bluffs we have that attempt to steal after slowing down on the turn. Seems like we'd have to be turning some AA/KK into bluffs, which most players aren't going to do.
I'd think a small size could look like thin value or a bluff, and might induce a raise. I might bet around $450-$500 at this stack depth.
I think the size really depends on your read of villain and his tendencies. If he's capable of raising over a pot sized bet with Jx and bluffs, then we can go bigger. If he's likely to think we're going big with our bluffs and thin value, there again, we can go bigger.
I also think we need to consider what hands in our range c-bet flop, check-call turn, and then bet this river, and what size those hands would likely bet. Like, maybe we slow down and check turn with AA/KK and AK/AQ/KQ, and our NFD's. If I'm V, I'm probably not thinking you have QQ or Jx here. I'm mostly going to put you on 1P or a busted draw - hands that are likely folding to a raise.
My gut instinct is that it's a mistake to go huge here, because all our AA/KK and AQ/KQ combos just want to get to showdown. I think betting small is going to induce a lot of raises.
Check raise. He is going to bet any jack or boat and he might bet bluffs too. And he is very likely to call your raise with a hand like a J or boat. Especially vs a laggy player who usually plays bigger.
Betting big here to look bluffy is dubious. When I see it's clearly very weighted towards very thick value.
Donk betting is rarely the right play.
