88 facing 3 bets on 643 board, 1/3 Live

Calling PF is fine at these stacks. However, on the flop you fell down the rabbit hole of trying to range 3 other opponents, rather than realizing that your hand now is close to trash, since even if you are ahead you'll likely get outdrawn over the next two streets.

I'd likely fold the flop and feel fine about it.

Pre is fine. Flop I just fold. We were basically set mining and we missed.

Yeah, preflop is good. They may be lose, but they all put in 8xBB preflop and 3/4 pot on the flop. The chances are someone has you beat. Any other pp is a higher overpair, set, or straight draw.

Why do you think it was a mistake calling 25 pre after an UTG raise and two callers, including UTG+1? IMO, 3betting in that spot is just button pressing.

When the original raiser bets the flop 4 ways I would think it's more PP's than AK/AQs. He also bet 75 into 100 (three quarters pot) which is a big bet, being OOP in a multiway pot (as an initial UTG raiser). We have little equity to improve if we call and raising would be over playing our hand/turning it into a bluff with two strong ranges already in the hand (UTG and UTG+!). I would fold otf especially because I doubt V1's shutting it down ott, and even if he checks I'm sure V2 would take over the betting. Their ranges appear too strong to be dumping more money in with just a med PP, even though we technically have an over pair.

3B to $125 or fold pre. I'd lean towards a raise. As played, raise or fold flop. I'd lean towards a fold.

A raise sounds positively spewtastic!

And LOL at ever folding PF.

That has to be a troll bc we're getting great setmining odds (almost half of it is already in the pot). Folding pre OTB there is horrible (a lot more horrible than pressing buttons by 3betting).

I'd raise pre to ISO the dead money from the two flat callers and get this HU and IP, and because if we just flat call, I'm expecting V1 to do exactly what he did on the flop - c-bet big, forcing us to decide what we want to do with a middling over-pair on this ragged board.

V opened over 8x from UTG, and got two callers. Flatting to set-mine here is basically just playing bingo. I think raising is better than folding, and folding is better than calling, unless we think any of these V's is raising >8x pre and going to barrel off with all his un-paired over-cards, and / or pay us off with a worse hand if action checks to us and we bet. Neither seems overly likely here.

So, yeah, I think playing this as a raise or fold pre is better than flatting and hoping to hit a set in a multi-way, super-bloated pot.

What are you using for set-mining odds calc's? My rule of thumb is that we need to be 15x as deep as the raise size. Here, that would mean we need to be starting at least $375 deep.

The original raiser is only starting $300 deep. V3 is only starting out with $240. The only player that has more than $375 to start the hand, other than hero, is V2.

Even if we're looking at what's in the pot already, that's only $75 when action gets to us on the BTN, which isn't half of what we need in implied odds.

H/U I use 15 to 20x. The pot is already 100, we only need another 150 and the rest is just icing on the cake. Also 88+ has SDV on it's own. I can see folding if we're first to act after the short stacked initial raiser but not otb after 2 people called since we have enough implied odds (especially if the early position player's hands are strong).

Obviously its a huge preflop raise, but on the Button and likely to end up fairly multiway, I think I'm ok with preflop. ETA: Position / ~ok IO / our hand might be good UI and we can easily be told that on the flop / etc. all make calling acceptable, imo.

And I'd just fold the flop to this action. EP raiser has continued large into the world; is he suicidal? First caller, whatever I guess, although this is even fairly strong with guys behind. But then *that* guy calls?

GbutIfoldrealeasyG

If we were 100bb I think shoving 88 here is almost certainly better than anything else.

Look at the descriptions, V1 is "very loose" and frequently raising.
Vs. top 15%, 88 is flipping and V1 is way more likely to call AK than 99.

Kind of weird in that I don't think V3 should have a calling range here with only 80bb, and like 20% of his stack already in the pot, so while V2 and V3 should be capped ... there's some chance V3 is calling AA here.

At 200bb with V3 at only 80bb, I'm not sure it's a good call preflop either.
Assuming we always see a flop we need to get $250 in equity in on the flop everytime we hit, just to break even. Maybe with V1/V2 betting way too much that's fine, but I'd still be worried about the stack size differences.

$75 is other people's money ... 10 to 1 is the min. for setminning and 75 is far from half of $250. We need to WIN $250 of _other people's money_ just to break even on the call.

Also FWIW I can easily see us being ahead of V1 and V2 on this flop a decent amount of the time ... V3 again, seems like he should have better overpairs a lot but also be never calling the flop so who knows.

UTG opened to $25 and got 2 callers. The pot is only $75 when action gets to hero, not $100. If we flat call, then it'll be $100. To call the $25, at 15x-20x, we need another $300 to come from somewhere, if not more than $300, if we're looking for 20x. It's not $150 more, no matter if it's 15x or 20x.

Your calcs are just bad math.

If UTG opened to $15 or less, I could see flat calling, though I'd probably still prefer a raise to ISO the dead money.

If we had a read that UTG typically checked flop when OOP as the PFR in a multi-way pot, or would c-bet small, I could also see flat calling.

But UTG opened to $25. Unless we know that's his usual raise size, I'd suspect that's a sizing tell, indicating he has a big PP, or at worst AK or maybe AQs, and he's likely to c-bet large on most flops, because he's not happy about opening to $25 with AA/KK and getting 3 callers.

If he's bad enough to have a sizing tell, I'd think he's bad enough to c-bet the flop at a high frequency, even when OOP and multi-way, and for a larger size, that will force us to fold if we don't hit a set.

I'm assuming this is a raked game, with the rake taken post-flop, from the pot. We're incentivized to take some hands that can otherwise flat call, and raise with them. 88 seems like a pretty good candidate here. It has SOME showdown value, but not enough to play as a bluff-catcher on most run-outs.

When we flat call, we're capping our range, such that we really can't credibly rep big over-pairs or even top pair on most flops. If we 3B pre, we can either take it down without seeing a flop, or get HU with UTG or someone else, with $50 in dead money in the pot. Either way, if we raise, we'll be going to the flop with a range advantage and position, such that the action will be checked to us more often than not.

Calling $25 in the hopes of flopping a set, and otherwise planning to fold when V c-bets (or if someone else stabs at it) is basically just donating, especially against weak opponents who are likely to c-bet at too high a frequency, and for too large a size.

Even if we hit a set with 88, it'll be hard to get max value on a lot of board textures. Maybe V goes broke with AA/KK on disconnected boards like 843rb, but he may not be as ready to play for stacks on more connected boards like T87rb, and we could be doubling him up if the board is A or K high with an 8.

Like, what's our plan if we DO hit a set, after flatting pre? I'm assuming we're raising right away. If the flop comes T98rb, UTG c-bets to $75, and gets two callers - yay, we hit a set, but either of the other opponents could be sand-bagging with TT, 99, or QJ, planning to raise turn, but happy to back-raise if we raise flop. If the flop comes 843rb, maybe we stack 44 or 33, but it won't be impossible for our opponents to fold 99-AA when we put in that raise.

If we make a set, there are really only a few possible scenarios - we flop a set with two undercards to our 88, and hope V will go broke with his over-pairs. We flop a set with two over-cards, and hope we're not losing set-over set. We flop a set with two connected cards, and hope we can get value from over-pairs, and that we're not losing set over set, or straight over set.

I don't see why we'd rather flat call with a plan to fold if we don't flop a set, instead of raising, if raising gives us a chance to take the pot down pre, or a chance to get this HU and IP with the betting lead and a range advantage.

Y'all can of course disagree, but it's pretty arrogant to say I must be trolling, or "LOL" at playing this as a raise or fold pre, without logically defending a pre-flop call. Flatting is arguably the worst play, when UTG opens for >8x, especially when OP acknowledges that his pre-flop call is (in his own words), "probably a mistake". At least OP is open-minded enough to consider the possibility of doing something other than flatting.

OP also admits he didn't know what to do on the flop, which is another reason I prefer to raise pre. We're usually not going to know what to do on most flops when we flat with 88 multi-way (even if we make a set). If we raised pre, we could c-bet or check-back.

When we flat-call pre, we're probably better off folding on this flop, when V c-bets 3/4 pot and gets two callers, even knowing that our hand has showdown value and could be best against our opponent's ranges, the way this was played.

We got one of the best flops for our hand that isn't a set and everyone is saying fold (and I mostly agree), just because one loose guy bet and got calls.

I think failing to jam 88 here is a bigger error than failing to jam AA. But i guess lets see how getting to a winning showdown four ways with unimproved 88 goes.

V1 is still UTG, so he should be at the top of his raising range even if he opens frequently from other areas, and V2 who was next to act also called the 8x raise who's also 200 BB's eff. I think jamming with 88 there for 600 is just pressing buttons and if he has TT+ (or AK) he's calling and we end up praying we're just flipping. Laying 600 to with 75 is kinda slim.

With an aggressive preflop raiser and two callers we should easily have enough IO's if we flop a set and if he has AK in a 4 way pot and it gets checked to us otf, we can bet and maybe check back the turn and river to get to SD so it's not automatic that we need a set to win with middle pairs and higher.

I said you must be trolling because I didn't expect you to consider folding. UTG wasn't described as a tight nit, but rather an aggressive player where if we do flop a set we'd get paid off. I'll take that investment all day for $10 more than what you'd usually call.

I should let illiterat clarify for himself, but since I'm replying...he said we could shove if we're 100bb deep, not 200bb deep. V1 is starting with $300 (100bb), not $600 (200bb), so we could raise to $300, which puts V1 all-in, without necessarily jamming all-in ourselves. I'm guessing that V2 ($600 / 200bb deep) mostly folds in that scenario.

OP described V1 and V2 as very loose, but not necessarily aggro. I'm not looking to quibble over whether or not they actually ARE aggro, but I do think it's worth acknowledging that the read here isn't overly detailed.

What strikes me most here isn't that V1 opened from UTG, but rather the size he's chosen. If he's loose (or loose and aggro), he might be opening a wider range than optimal, especially if he's taking smaller sizing. But when he takes a large size, I think that is more of an indication of his hand strength than his position.

If I said we should raise, and you countered, "but you just said V1 has a really strong range when he opens from UTG to this size, and we won't love it if he 4B's," that MIGHT be an argument for flatting, rather than 3B'ing, but it's also an argument for just folding, rather than flat calling.

So, if I say we should raise or fold, no, I'm not trolling, because folding to what looks like a very strong range that opens for >8x UTG is going to be higher EV than flatting, and going multi-way, even IP, when we can expect V1 to c-bet at a very high frequency, and probably for a large size, because that's how weak players that open to >8x play their over-pairs when they get 3 callers.

Alternatively, if we 3B to $125 and get 4B-jammed on, yeah, it sucks, because we'll be getting a good price to call off the whole $300 (unless we think V only has over-pairs, never any AX). But there's generally not that much 4B'ing at 1/3, unless someone has AA/KK or AK, so we can call it a trivial fold if V1 does 4B-jam (which is why I prefer to 3B to $125, rather than jam for $300).

However, if he folds, odds are the others also fold, and we win, without having to see a flop or pay rake. If he calls, odds are the others still fold, and we get this HU with $50 in dead money in the pot, and a range advantage, which will allow us to realize our equity better post-flop. We can expect V will mostly be checking to us, not donking into us, when we 3B pre, and he flat calls.

What I don't like about this situation isn't the open size that's $10 bigger than what's usually "normal". It's the two calls in between, and expecting V1 to bomb most flops for a large size. We'll be going to the flop with an SPR of less than 3 (using V1 and V3 as the effective stacks, not V2). It's going to be hard for us to maneuver post-flop at that SPR, and even harder when he can expect him to c-bet over 1/2 pot.

This is why I don't really love calling, even if V1 only opened to $15. I like it a little more, because we'll be investing less, and the SPR will be higher. But I still think I prefer to raise, especially if we know V has sizing tells, and a $15 raise is less likely to be a big PP than a $25 raise.

I also don't like that by flat-calling to set-mine, we're basically resigning ourselves to playing fit-or-fold post-flop. If we raise pre, we might take it down, but if we don't, we'll have more options post-flop than simply continuing when we flop a set and folding when we don't.

At the very least, raising pre makes it more likely we'll see both the flop and turn, whereas flatting all but guarantees we won't see the turn if we don't flop a set.

@ Doc

You realize we're perfectly cool playing fit-and-fold postflop, and the more multiway the better when we're setmining, right?

I mean, I think you can argue for a squeeze here but it is not a squeeze versus fold spot. Flatting might not be as awesome as some are making it out to be, but it is by no means horrible, and we suck @ pokr if we make this -EV overall.

GimoG

I realize that flatting with 22-88 to set-mine multi-way is usually fine. It may not be horrible here, but it's not nearly as good here as it usually is in a SRP when the open is for a normal size and the SPR will still be manageable post-flop, and / or we don't have any reason to think a huge c-bet is coming 100% of the time.

I think flatting here is just okay at best, but probably not even just okay more often than not. It's probably slightly -EV, with the potential to be massively -EV, and only occasionally +EV, and rarely massively +EV.

I'm fine accepting that it's a marginal EV difference, since that's what you seem to be suggesting. I'm not okay accepting that it's obviously +EV to flat call, and that folding or raising are obviously -EV.

If there's trolling happening here, it ain't by me. I'm one of the few peeps who bothers to back up an opinion with sound logic, instead of simply echoing "but, but, but...muh ranges".

Exactly, you're just "guessing" V2 folds (and praying). If we raise to 300 and he jams his whole continuing range, we're gonna be up against two strong ranges.

True, his UTG raising range wasn't mentioned in the OP except that he's "loose". Most people are positionally aware, so they won't be that loose UTG than in later positions but if hero saw him raise UTG with the same range he would raise otb, then it could change how I play but I'm still not in love with jamming for 100 BB's if I'm unsure he would fold. If he calls we're proably like 23% so we're basically hoping and praying he folds to the jam which means we're laying 600 to win 75. I'd wanna be more convinced they would both fold pre (V2 could easily have a big pair if UTG's more of a LAG, waiitng for someone to raise or even not wanting to fold him out if he has AA/KK... Usually lags fold with their tail between their legs when average playes are giving them aggression).

op seemed to convey that it was his normal size

That's exactly what a setmine is, it's a profitable fit or fold but the difference is we're not calling trying to hit top pair we're calling trying to hit a set that can win everyone's stack.

I agree, we "might" take it down which is why I'd prefer to know more about both of their ranges instead of guessing, hoping and praying, but that's just me (that's just my style; if you prefer a laggier higher variance style go for it).

To be clear, I wasn't suggesting we jam. I suggested we raise to $125. Illiterat said we could jam for 100bb's, and I was explaining to you that it would only be 100bb's, not 200bb's, if only V1 calls.

As mathematically bad as it may be, I think I'd rather raise to $125 and fold if V1 jams for $300, because I think he's mostly jamming AA/KK, and not enough AK, and we only have 88 not QQ, but I'm willing to concede that raise-folding isn't great. I still think it's better than calling pre and folding flop, for the reasons I gave.

Calling pre just to fold flop when we miss seems terrible, which is why I'd rather call if we're willing to consider betting or even raising flop when we DON'T hit a set, but I wouldn't expect to get a good opportunity to do that often enough to make me want to call pre.

i think if you dont suck postflop, have a big BR, and are indifferent to money, that 3betting to $125 is going to make more than flatting (in other words not most people). and thats becuase people are only going to 4b AA/KK and fold a lot of other stuff. and when they dont 4b and cap their range, as long as no A or K comes on the flop/turn, you will print by betting 1/3 on the flop and bombing turn.

sometimes you will get 4b shoved on and have to fold. a mentally weak player will then wonder why he torched $100 instead of just calling $20 (im looking at myself here). a mentally strong player will shrug and know he made the right play.

this is why confidence is so important live (and why downswings might last forever for some). the best players try to maximize every situation and treat the chips like clay to keep score instead of cash.

nitty old man, when you get all your money in pre, whether or not you suck post flop doesn't matter anymore.
Imagine we 3bet/fold to 125 and we see the flop which had an 8 and the other two players are all in ott. Why put yourself in all that agony over trying to save a couple bucks?