Bad Coaching Thread: Matt Eberflus canned like chunk light tuna
Here's the last line from the box score of yesterday's Loiusville - Kentucky game.
UK TD 0:28
STEVE JOHNSON 57 YD PASS FROM ANDRE' WOODSON
(LONES SEIBER KICK)
Drive info: 8 plays, 74 yards.
UL 34 UK 40
Without knowing any other context, the only thing I can think is there may be a situation where the clock is the factor.
If it's near the two-minute warning and I'm trying to get the ball back (so field position doesn't really matter), I'd rather you have 1st and 10 as opposed to 2nd and 1 since you can, theoretically run a 2nd down play after which I have to call a TO, and it's likely to result in a 1st down, giving you 3 more downs.
If I take the penalty and just give you 1st and 10, you get the
1st & 10 at ARI 42
(4:30 - 4th) A.Anderson reported in as eligible. J.Cook up the middle to ARZ 33 for 9 yards (K.White, S.Murphy-Bunting).
2nd & 1 at ARI 33
(3:52 - 4th) PENALTY on ARZ, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at ARZ 33 - No Play.
Kyle kicked an FG on 4th and 2 to make a 13 point game a 16 point game
Midseason form
Going from 13 to 16 is actually quite a big change in WP - the whole 2 possession narrative is largely bollocks. For example going from 15 to 16 point lead is a bigger difference in WP than going from 16 to 17 with 10 minutes left.
That's not to say that it's a good decision (I think it was probably somewhere between marginally bad and a toss-up) but talking about it as if going from 13 to 16 is not a big deal is a very casual fan thing (or a Buck/Aikman thing as I think they commented on the two possession thing at the time) to do.
Yeah this. 16 is a "two possession game" like 24% of the time at most, and that's just to get to OT. 13-->16 is a huge increase in win%.
They'd also gotten the Jets to burn a TO when they lined up to go for it at first, which at that stage of the game is worth a few extra % in win equity by itself, I wonder if that factored into the decision at all.
I JUST WANT TO COMPLAIN
:(
Come on guys, quit being mean to SRM. He’s been through enough.
Sean Payton just kicked it deep down 7 with 1 TO with 1:55 left to go. They got the 3 and out and now all they need to do to tie the game is for their rookie QB to go 80 yards in 10 seconds.
Sean Payton just kicked it deep down 7 with 1 TO with 1:55 left to go. They got the 3 and out and now all they need to do to tie the game is for their rookie QB to go 80 yards in 10 seconds.
Yeah I was gonna see if anyone knew how bad this was mathematically. I'm seeing 5.2% of onside kicks worked last year. What's that vs (best case scenario) 80 yards in 20 seconds no TO's needing a TD?
Yeah I was gonna see if anyone knew how bad this was mathematically. I'm seeing 5.2% of onside kicks worked last year. What's that vs (best case scenario) 80 yards in 20 seconds no TO's needing a TD?
According to NumberFire, Denver's WP after the punt was 2.04% which seems insanely high.
He also ran a QB draw with 2:30 left and wasted 27 seconds, knowing they needed two scores. They easily could have finished that first drive on the right side of the two-minute warning.
A terrible decision that will go unnoticed because they won:
Bills attempted a FG up 3 at the Ari 20 on 4th and 2 with two minutes left. Teams really don't understand how easy it is for the offense to move the ball in these situations. They drastically underestimate the TD probability. You need to create a two score game or run out the clock. Going from 3 to 6 adds very little. In fact, it just lets dumb coaches play optimally instead of settling for a FG and going to OT.
McDermott also messed up
Eagles 3rd and 3 pass and then FG is a disaster.
I think it does. If you kick the FG you have to burn 40 seconds on 3rd down.
A full minute to score a touchdown is not a lot of time but is not a death sentence by any means.
Kicking the field goal there was so bad.
* If you go for it on 4th and 3, you might get the yards and end the game.
* If you don't get it, the Bears are pinned 20 yards deeper than they would be on a kickoff.
* The Bears may play much more conservatively on offense if they only need 3 to tie vs knowing that they 100% need the touchdown.
Kicking the field goal there was so bad.
* If you go for it on 4th and 3, you might get the yards and end the game.
* If you don't get it, the Bears are pinned 20 yards deeper than they would be on a kickoff.
* The Bears may play much more conservatively on offense if they only need 3 to tie vs knowing that they 100% need the touchdown.
It was so bad, the Falcons turned into the Bears 😆
A full minute to score a touchdown is not a lot of time but is not a death sentence by any means.
Especially with no timeouts. It took the Falcons 1:05 to score last night. I'm sure play calling would have been slightly different had the Falcons only had a minute instead, but they were mostly optimal on that final drive.
From that same game, more of an "is this as obviously dumb as I think it is" question:
Once the Falcons score, with :34 left and 2TO, there's a not insignificant chance of the Eagles scoring the game winning FG. It feels like if there's ever a time to kick the ball off short and force them to return it and kill 5-6s of clock, this would be it, as it basically costs them the time for one full play and earns a nice extra chunk of win equity. But yet again, like has seemed to be the case on 95% of kickoffs so far this year throughout the league, it looks like they had zero interest in trying that and were totally fine handing them the ball at the 30 with no time off the clock.
Are the kickers just terrible at placement on KOs and can't hit the landing zone? Is this just your run of the mill cowardly coaching decision where the thinking is "well if we give up a 50+ yard return we look stupid"?
I don't think this would be a big deal at all if there were like a minute left, and if there were something like 10s left then blasting it out of the end zone is definitely the better play. But I feel like this is exactly the sweet spot where killing a few extra seconds is huge.
Is this just your run of the mill cowardly coaching decision where the thinking is "well if we give up a 50+ yard return we look stupid"?
Seems very likely it's this. But yeah, starting at the 30, the Eagles only need 25-30 yards to be in makeable FG range, with a chance to gain more having the 2 TOs. So time is of the essence. Elliott has the range. His career long is 61, which he's done twice. He's 26/37 in his career from 50+.
Especially with no timeouts. It took the Falcons 1:05 to score last night. I'm sure play calling would have been slightly different had the Falcons only had a minute instead, but they were mostly optimal on that final drive.
I thought this thread was for historically dumb decisions. Not just bad ones. And Barkley dropping that ball was like a fumbled handoff. I guess you guys think Hurts kneeling was the right play. I won't comment on this anymore.
