Bad Coaching Thread: Matt Eberflus canned like chunk light tuna
Here's the last line from the box score of yesterday's Loiusville - Kentucky game.
UK TD 0:28
STEVE JOHNSON 57 YD PASS FROM ANDRE' WOODSON
(LONES SEIBER KICK)
Drive info: 8 plays, 74 yards.
UL 34 UK 40
I thought this thread was for historically dumb decisions. Not just bad ones. And Barkley dropping that ball was like a fumbled handoff. I guess you guys think Hurts kneeling was the right play. I won't comment on this anymore.
When you have a 99.3% chance of winning, decisions that result in your team losing, the 7th most unlikely scenario since 2016, qualify as historically dumb imo.
Dumb decision #1: kicking fg
Dumb decision #2: throwing
I think an OOB punt from the 15 to pin them at the 5 is better than kicking fg.
i think once they are at 4th and 3 then kicking the fg is forgivable because the chances of them getting into fg position vs getting a touchdown are markedly higher
not only is the amount of distance needed to be covered much longer, but they are also funneled to a much narrower play calling range which are in theory easier to counter defensively
let's be honest, this was much more so a defensive collapse than a coaching gaffe
but this is also why in poker hh we need to look at earlier streets instead of focusing on the river decision, throwing it on 3rd down was a tremendous gaffe - i was watching it on manningcast and all three were shocked by that call and couldn't believe how dumb it was because again, it was much less about getting the td there and much more about eating the clock (and besides 3 yards was very attainable on the run, not to mention that it'd likely get them within range of a tush push even if they didn't get all 3)
I think kicking to go up 6 in that spot is one of the worst decisions in the entire game tree. This is because converting on 4th down definitively wins the game, and if they don't convert, most teams don't play optimally when only down 3. When a team is down 6, they are able to play perfectly as it's TD or bust. The team is in 4 down territory for the entire length of the field. Too many times, a team down 3 will play too conservatively and settle for OT while also trying to run the clock down to zero.
Given that thesis, I think your second sentence is backwards. A team is going to have a more narrow play calling range when down 3, rather than down 6, mostly playing for the tie instead of the win.
Also, the amount of distance is not that different, all things considered. Go for it on 4th down and don't convert means turning it over at the Atl 8-10. Atl needs to go 50-55 yards to be in reasonable FG range. Obviously, 90 or so yards to win the game. But Atl goes 55 yards to tie the game and Phi still has a chance to win in OT. Whereas, if Phi kicks to go up 6, Atl needs 70 yards to win the game, while also in a much better spot on the field (own 30 instead of own 10).
Furthermore, as seen last night and in so many other instances, defenses transition into the horrible prevent defense that is somehow still in the playbook.
At this point, I think the math shows that trying to end the game by converting 4th down in that spot is more optimal than kicking the FG to go up 6 and trying to win with defense.
I agree with your last point. They should have been playing to convert 3 yards on 2 downs. They would have been better off tush pushing twice.
i think once they are at 4th and 3 then kicking the fg is forgivable because the chances of them getting into fg position vs getting a touchdown are markedly higher
not only is the amount of distance needed to be covered much longer, but they are also funneled to a much narrower play calling range which are in theory easier to counter defensively
let's be honest, this was much more so a defensive collapse than a coaching gaffe
but this is also why in poker hh we need to look at earlier streets ins
Peyton even said that he thought the Eagles should go to the tush push on 3rd & 4th downs.
those are actually some pretty good points tarheels
According to
taking a knee on 4th down would be (a lot) better than kicking a field goal. Ignoring the vegas line then WP down 3 at own 10 with 1:30 left is 11.68% while WP down 6 at own 30 with 1:30 left is 15.56%. I don't hate the 3rd down decision as much as most people seem to (run/run should be standard there but I don't hate the occasional pass in that sort of situation) but the 4th down decision by itself was an egregiously bad mistake.
what would pfr's win rate be with both those scenarios but 55 seconds on the clock instead of 1:30 though?
6.08% and 10.53% respectively, which would make kicking even worse in that scenario. I will say that I get a more suspicious of the numbers it spits out as the time remaining gets less though - mostly once it's down in the <30s range but I start getting wary once it's around the minute mark.
I’ve been pounding the table for years you need to either make it a two score game or run out the clock. Even mediocre offenses move the ball easily in these spots. Must be some kind of incentive problem where the defensive coordinator errs too much on not giving up a blown coverage TD. Ironically, that would have been much better than letting them methodically and easily move the ball upfield with not much time left for the Eagles.
McDermott messed this up on week 1 which I pointed out but nobody seemed to notice because they won.
According to
taking a knee on 4th down would be (a lot) better than kicking a field goal.No one likes punting from the 10?
I’ve been pounding the table for years you need to either make it a two score game or run out the clock. Even mediocre offenses move the ball easily in these spots. Must be some kind of incentive problem where the defensive coordinator errs too much on not giving up a blown coverage TD. Ironically, that would have been much better than letting them methodically and easily move the ball upfield with not much time left for the Eagles.
McDermott messed this up on week 1 which I pointed out bu
If we forget the throw on 3rd down and pretend that didnt happen. We just act like it was run.
Very hard to not take a field goal when you are up 3. If you leave it three points you risk leaving the possiblity of a tie with a fg. If they can move it easily, they will do so to get in fg range. You have to make them score a td or lose. There should be no way Cousins drives the field in a min for a td. Terrible Defense makes every decision look bad. I would always take the 3 points there, unless its 1yd for first. Just horrendous defense.
****ing clownshoes
If he decided they were going to kick if they didn’t make it, then calling a pass on 3rd is just insultingly dumb.
Vibes > maths
oh there's the dumb meatsack I was just talking about in peehs lol
Any hilarious explanation for why he went for it with 14 seconds left in the first half over kicking a FG?
Any hilarious explanation for why he went for it with 14 seconds left in the first half over kicking a FG?
To be fair, let's go through the assumptions.
I'd say a 60% success rate on 4th and 1.5.
10% TD on the play after converting 1st down.
5% tackle in bounds after converting 1st down and no FG attempt.
Let's say he scores a TD 5% of the time on 4th and 1, given they get a 1st down
95% FG attempt
Going for it:
(.60 * .05 * 7) + (.60 * .95 * .10 * 7) + (.60 * .95 * .9 * .95 * .95 * 3) = 1.997
Kicking FG:
(.95 * 3) = 2.85.
It was an objectively dumb decision. It doesn't make sense with math or gut feeling. I think he's clicking buttons and overruling his staff to show he is the alpha in the room. I never liked him as an Eagles fanbut I guess I ate some crow after he lead them to the Super Bowl. In hindsight, that was a great team that caught the NFL off-guard and had elite coordinators.
Falcons have the ball on the NO41 with 20s left, no TO. They proceed to throw three straight passes 20+ yards downfield, all incomplete.
Of course, Koo drills a new career high 58 yard FG to win the game and nobody will remember just how bad the end of game play calling was, but I won't
Chargers are dumb for not taking a timeout when the Chiefs got to 4th down before the half. With 20 seconds left, Andy probably punts. Instead they let us run the clock down for no reason (it's not like we were going to do anything other than kick a FG). Butker barely missed the 65-yarder, but that was a big mistake.
On 4th and 2 John Harbaugh just called timeout after being charged a timeout and gave the bills a first down as a result
