KK on QQx board(3bet pot)
5/5
~$550 effective
UTG - unknown player. 25-30 year old asian guy.
UTG raises to $20, Hero(CO) K♥K♦ 3bet to $80, UTG calls
Flop($170) Q♥ Q♠ 9♦
UTG checks, Hero checks...
Turn($170) 3♥
UTG bets $70, Hero calls
River($310) 4♠
UTG shoves for ~$400, Hero - ?
Shallow stack 3-bet pots usually confuse me. I hate betting OTF because it commits me to the pot, but I also hate calling on later streets because I don’t see many bluff combos in his range, and I don’t beat any of his value hands.
16 Replies
This is a really gross spot, since you could easily have AQ, QQ, KQs, & 99, yet Villain doesn't care. In addition, you'd rather not have the Kh in your hand.
I'd probably fold, especially against a rando.
Im calling, our hand is so underepped. We can fold all our TT combos and half of our JJ combo (the ones with a heart)I think KK+ is just a pure call here especially vs 25-30 yo asian guy.
Also i think flop is range bet small in a 3bet pot but checking is fine too so wtver.
How come 4x 3bet and not 3x?
You should just bet the flop. He has the Q a small fraction of the time; you are almost always ahead here. Are you also checking with AA? Does this mean that your value-betting range on the flop is only Qx+? Of course that would be far too tight. You have a large range advantage here and you should be leveraging that and cbetting much wider. You are also going to miss this flop with a significant portion of your 3betting range that wants to bet as a bluff/for balance, and that range benefits from fold equity due to your range advantage. If you're going to bet those hands then it's essential that you also bet for value and for sure that value range has to include overpairs. On this paired board he is meant to call wider than usual and you can get value from JJ, TT, 88 etc
As played there's obviously no way you can fold the turn, and the river is pretty close too - I imagine a solver would show this to be a +EV call at equilibrium.
"Shallow stack 3-bet pots usually confuse me. I hate betting OTF because it commits me to the pot, but I also hate calling on later streets because I don’t see many bluff combos in his range, and I don’t beat any of his value hands."
You've got an overpair with an SPR of less than 3; you're pretty much committed if any money starts going in, and that's fine. You are ahead a large majority of the time. If he has it he has it; if you fold overpairs at this stack depth there is zero question that you're overfolding. The only time I would consider doing this is if villain is some kind of OMC nit; on average you are simply committed here. This villain was unknown, and you've "shown weakness" on the flop, so he may just be trying to run you down. I don't think you can check with KK on the flop and then fold once you've given him the green light to blast off.
I don't know why you say this. If you assume young, unknown Asian is LAGgy, I think his raise-call range matches up fine vs. BTN's 3-bet range on this board.
...you've "shown weakness" on the flop, so he may just be trying to run you down. I don't think you can check with KK on the flop and then fold once you've given him the green light to blast off.
If he's good enough to bluff-shove the river, then he's certainly good enough to not assume Hero's flop check was "showing weakness."
I don't know why you say this. If you assume young, unknown Asian is LAGgy, I think his raise-call range matches up fine vs. BTN's 3-bet range on this board.
If he's good enough to bluff-shove the river, then he's certainly good enough to not assume Hero's flop check was "showing weakness."
The button has approximately the range in red on the left vs approximately the range in black on the right:
All the strongest hands (AA, KK, QQ etc) and a lot more Qx too.
It doesn't take a good player to bluff-shove this river once hero has "shown weakness" on the flop. That's how street poker is played by donklords the world over.
That said, even good players will make the assumption that hero doesn't have Qx or overpairs when he checks back the flop (and they are probably correct more than 90% of the time).
It doesn't take a good player to bluff-shove this river once hero has "shown weakness" on the flop. That's how street poker is played by donklords the world over.
Ah yes, the ubiquitous river bluff-shove, playing now at low limit tables near you. LOL
Also, it's kind of important to make up your mind whether he's a good player or not a good player before deciding on your betting actions on each street. Is he a solid Asian LAG or a donklord?
Ah yes, the ubiquitous river bluff-shove, playing now at low limit tables near you. LOL
Also, it's kind of important to make up your mind whether he's a good player or not a good player before deciding on your betting actions on each street. Is he a solid Asian LAG or a donklord?
All that is known is that he's an "unknown player, 25-30 year old asian guy".
The EV of betting with KK is higher than the EV of checking on the flop. Therefore hero should bet 100% of the time, regardless of whether villain is a solid Asian LAG or a donklord.
Similarly, it's going to be a profitable calldown (more profitable than folding) after hero checks the flop and faces aggression, against both a solid Asian LAG and a donklord.
In my opinion these decisions are pretty straightforward. KK is not only a profitable calldown but a mandatory calldown at MDF after checking back the flop.
All that is known is that he's an "unknown player, 25-30 year old asian guy".
The EV of betting with KK is higher than the EV of checking on the flop. Therefore hero should bet 100% of the time, regardless of whether villain is a solid Asian LAG or a donklord.
Similarly, it's going to be a profitable calldown (more profitable than folding) after hero checks the flop and faces aggression, against both a solid Asian LAG and a donklord.
In my opinion these decisions are pretty straightforward.
I'm not sure if I agree with the analysis, but I do appreciate the concise response (no sarcasm intended), since oftentimes I just scroll past the "wall of text" responses that you and a couple of the others sometimes create.
I think we should be cbetting 1/4 to 1/3 with our entire range. Our bluffs all want to bet so we need to keep all our value bets in. I believe we have a slight nut advantage and a bigger range advantage.
I would call river against a young asian after taking this weak underrepped line.
Yeah, my bad. This should’ve just been a c-bet OTF. We have a significant range advantage, regardless of how well the opponent’s range connects with the board. If we believe they have more Qs in their range, we can lower the bet size to 1/4, but against an average preflop calling range, a 1/3 bet is standard.
Once the opponent calls, we’re likely way behind, so checking the turn is the best plan.
btw
Spoiler
Hero called, UTG had 66 lol
I'm probably c-betting the flop small, and just going bet-bet-bet. No real reason to overthink this one.
If he calls, the situation changes drastically. Now, he will have the range advantage OTT.
If he calls, the situation changes drastically. Now, he will have the range advantage OTT.
Was this reply for me?
My ranging of this guy is going to be heavily reliant on the pre-flop action and card removal. I think he 4B's us from OOP with AA, and probably QQ, at least sometimes. I think he flat calls with 88-JJ, and mostly folds AQo/KQo. He's probably also continuing with some suited AX that could turn a BDFD.
So on the flop, I'm not giving him AA. I'm only giving him three combos of 99, three combos of AQs/KQs, and a partial of QQ. We're ahead of the rest of his range.
I don't think he's auto-folding all his PP's to our c-bet, because we're mostly just going to have 1P at best, plus a lot of AK and air that just wants to range bet. He may or may not fold all his AX with BDFD potential on the flop.
So, I don't necessarily think he's got a range advantage going to the turn, just because he called flop. I think if he has a better hand, we'll hear from him when we barrel, now that there's another potential draw on board.
ETA - this hand reminds me of a similar one I played. I 3B an LP raise from the BB with JJ. The board paired Q's, and I just went bet-bet-bet. V called me the whole way, and my hand was good. Never saw what V had. Best guess is he was bluff catching with a worse PP, putting me on AK, because they always put us on AK.
This thread is wild. I don't see how this is ever anything other than bet bet bet with our second strongest non-Q hand. We get paid off by a lot. AP it's a snap call unless we have reads that villain is a supernit
Yeah, my bad. This should’ve just been a c-bet OTF. We have a significant range advantage, regardless of how well the opponent’s range connects with the board. If we believe they have more Qs in their range, we can lower the bet size to 1/4, but against an average preflop calling range, a 1/3 bet is standard.
Once the opponent calls, we’re likely way behind, so checking the turn is the best plan.
btw
Spoiler
Hero called, UTG had 66 lol
What do you think villain's range looks like if he calls the flop bet?
