Is Drive for Show Putt for Dough really true?
Drive for show, putt for dough. We have all heard it and while it might be true for a scratch to 20 handicap is it true on the PGA Tour? For starters, let me be clear you have to be world class at both ball striking and putting to play on the PGA Tour so this is a peer group amongst each other.
I took the new Putts Gained stat and the GIR stat and put FedEx cup rank and wins for each person. Not sure exactly how to word this to make sense so I will try to graph it. The chart below (hopefully) will show what the average FedEx cup rank is for #1-10, 11-20, 21-30 etc for Putts gained and GIR.
Average FedEx Cup Ranking
Putts Gained GIR
#1-10 44th 48th
#11-20 68 61
#21-30 66 61
#31-40 107 57
#41-50 70 63
#51-60 76 68
#61-70 94 82
#71-80 100 87
#81-90 115 94
#91-100 72 87
#101-110 102 107
#111-120 79 118
#121-130 100 89
#131-140 121 102
#141-150 117 121
#151-160 126 149
#161-170 118 124
#171-180 123 167
Damn it, I can't get it to keep my formatting when cut and pasting from Excel. What I am trying to show is that the #1-10 leaders for the Putts Gained stat has an average FedEx ranking of 44th and the average FedEx ranking for the #1-10 leaders of GIR is 48th. From there the columns get a little close together but I think you can see the trend. The Top 100 FedEx players are consistently ranked higher in the GIR stat than the Putts Gained stat.
Obviously the higher in each statistical category you are the better, but relative to each other the more important stat seems to be ballstriking…at least to be in the upper echelon. Does this mean that putting is much more small sample size and luck? I understand some people are much better putters than others but is it more important to be a much better ball striker than somebody else?
Ok, let’s look at wins.
In the top 32 GIR leaders there are 8 total wins. Top 32 Putts Gained - 7.
In the top 64 GIR leaders there are 15 total wins. Top 64 Putts Gained – 12.
There are only 2 winners outside the Top 100 in GIR while there are 9 in putts gained. This tells me that there are a lot of people who are relatively poor putters that happen to get hot one week and either get really lucky on sample size or just feel great with the putter that week. Conversely there are only 2 people that are outside the Top 100 in GIR that have won. Both of your multiple winners on Tour this year are outside the Top 100 in Putts Gained.
18 Replies
Lengthy interview with Scott in Golf Digest, shorter version in this month’s magazine. Both have the quote where he mentions this thread.
Interview is awesome. Just so many interesting stats that you wouldn't think about.
My favorite couple so far:
PGA Tour players average 3.5 birdies per round
On average, it takes PGA Tour players 2.8 shots to get in the hole from 100 yards in the fairway
Not sure what the #s are, but pretty sure correlation of PGAT event winners and strokes gained putting for each event is higher than same winners and driving distance for each event.
Some would reply that putting stats for 4 days has a lot of variance, which is true. But the dough is rewarded for winning the event.
If a pro could putt consistently as well as an average event winner, he would crush the long driver all other things being equal.
Not sure what the #s are, but pretty sure correlation of PGAT event winners and strokes gained putting for each event is higher than same winners and driving distance for each event.
Some would reply that putting stats for 4 days has a lot of variance, which is true. But the dough is rewarded for winning the event.
If a pro could putt consistently as well as an average event winner, he would crush the long driver all other things being equal.
For sure. I think the key difference is that people have figured out how to be consistently better than the field at Driving, Approach, and Around the Green but nobody has done it with putting. If someone could figure out how to gain 2 strokes per round on the field putting year over year they'd win a lot of tournaments
i might have mentioned this earlier in thread.
i have caddied far amount on pga canada tour (top players get status on korn ferry)
bad scores = wild off the tee
great scores = made some putts
ok scores = get up and down nicely.. or don't miss greens nor make putts
i will also add par 5's are so vital... one area of obvious constant advantage for certain,players
Not sure what the #s are, but pretty sure correlation of PGAT event winners and strokes gained putting for each event is higher than same winners and driving distance for each event.
Some would reply that putting stats for 4 days has a lot of variance, which is true. But the dough is rewarded for winning the event.
If a pro could putt consistently as well as an average event winner, he would crush the long driver all other things being equal.
look at the correlation over a large sample and exactly the opposite is true
Using more tournaments in the sample does not change the correlation. The likelihood of SG putting leader for that event and winning is stronger than the longest driver for that event and winning.
(I think) what you are referring to is the number of tournaments won by the season SG putting leader vs. tournaments won by the season driving distance leader. That is something different entirely.
For sure. I think the key difference is that people have figured out how to be consistently better than the field at Driving, Approach, and Around the Green but nobody has done it with putting. If someone could figure out how to gain 2 strokes per round on the field putting year over year they'd win a lot of tournaments
Exactly. The science of putting is in its infancy compared to the other aspects of the game, IMO.
Exactly. The science of putting is in its infancy compared to the other aspects of the game, IMO.
For sure. I think the key difference is that people have figured out how to be consistently better than the field at Driving, Approach, and Around the Green but nobody has done it with putting. If someone could figure out how to gain 2 strokes per round on the field putting year over year they'd win a lot of tournaments
Just off the top of my head, I think it’s the opposite. I tend to think Pelz showed what putting was all about 30 years ago. And quite frankly, in the short term there’s a ton of luck involved.
Pelz showed that putting on even the best of greens is nothing like putting on a pool table where you can easily make 9 foot putts over and over. On a green you can hit a perfect 9 foot putt that doesn’t touch the hole. Or you can hit a great approach shot to 9 feet where the putt is brutal.
I think it’s next to impossible to win a tournament while below average in ball striking because you can’t make up that many strokes on the greens. But there have been some great ball strikers over the years and now Scottie that can putt average and still win.
I'm guessing it's happened in PGA Tour history where someone has been negative strokes gained Tee to Green and still won, but I agree it's exceedingly hard.
First one that came to mind was last year's Memorial. Denny McCarthy was +0.47 SG T2G per round and lost in a playoff.
That was the week where Scottie finished solo 3rd by one shot. If he putted average for the week he would have won by 7 and if he had Denny McCarthy's putting week he would have won by 19.
Just off the top of my head, I think it’s the opposite. I tend to think Pelz showed what putting was all about 30 years ago. And quite frankly, in the short term there’s a ton of luck involved.
Pelz showed that putting on even the best of greens is nothing like putting on a pool table where you can easily make 9 foot putts over and over. On a green you can hit a perfect 9 foot putt that doesn’t touch the hole. Or you can hit a great approach shot to 9 feet where the putt is bru
We can agree to disagree on this. Pelz claimed the 50/50 putt was 6 feet (backed by his evidence), now it is about 8.5 feet. So obviously there has been a pretty significant improvement since Pelz' time. How much it can continue to improve is anybody's guess, but with the rollback of the ball I see even more ugency in improving putting, in particular the highly leveraged range of 8-10 feet.
Based on the research I've done on the subject, the top SG putting player for an event is around +8. SG off the tee is around +5.
Supergrunch. Id guess driving well is now controllable and putting well is more random walk.
I'm guessing it's happened in PGA Tour history where someone has been negative strokes gained Tee to Green and still won, but I agree it's exceedingly hard.
First one that came to mind was last year's Memorial. Denny McCarthy was +0.47 SG T2G per round and lost in a playoff.
That was the week where Scottie finished solo 3rd by one shot. If he putted average for the week he would have won by 7 and if he had Denny McCarthy's putting week he would have won by 19.
It would be very difficult to win on Tour while being negative simply because you are now looking at two of the four Strokes Gained categories. The typical winner on Tour is 12-14 shots clear of the field average. The week you are referring to with Denny he gained 11.279 vs the field. He obviously could have gained a bit more around the greens (he lost .002) in order to get to the 12-14 number, but if you lose ANY from tee to green you probably won't win.
Scottie losing 8.5 putting and finishing one shot back has to be a record that will stand for eternity (I'm assuming it's a record now, the Trivial Pursuit type stats aren't my specialty to figure out quickly).
We can agree to disagree on this. Pelz claimed the 50/50 putt was 6 feet (backed by his evidence), now it is about 8.5 feet. So obviously there has been a pretty significant improvement since Pelz' time. How much it can continue to improve is anybody's guess, but with the rollback of the ball I see even more ugency in improving putting, in particular the highly leveraged range of 8-10 feet.
Based on the research I've done on the subject, the top SG putting player for an event is around +8. SG of
OR, Pelz' data was wrong. OR, spike marks going away. OR, the fact the average player on Tour is lightyears better than when Pelz did his study. Point being, yes there has been a significant improvement in putting, but it's not really because of what saying "there has been a significant improvement in putting" somewhat implies if that makes sense.
The ball rollback shouldn't have any impact on Putting because it's uniform across the field. I do think putting numbers are improving but that is largely based on players truly committing to speed being the most important component of putting, green reading improvements via Aimpoint and now Tour Read, and improved agronomy.
I don't mean to be condescending, but I'm failing at understanding the point of your post
It seems like you are acknowledging that putting has improved quite a bit in the last 20+ years, for multiple reasons. And relying on Pelz' data is probably not wise. Seems fair.
IRT the new ball, perhaps with more dispersion on approaches players will put more work in putting to compensate, and that will implicitly improve putting in general.
I don't mean to be condescending, but I'm failing at understanding the point of your post
It seems like you are acknowledging that putting has improved quite a bit in the last 20+ years, for multiple reasons. And relying on Pelz' data is probably not wise. Seems fair.
IRT the new ball, perhaps with more dispersion on approaches players will put more work in putting to compensate, and that will implicitly improve putting in general.
I'm not sure what you don't understand. I don't think Pelz' data was accurate and since every inch from 3-8' is 1% in your make rate measurement accuracy is very important. I also think that agronomy, spike mark rules, and equipment has improved. These are all confounding variables to your point that there has been a significant improvement in putting because that implies (IMO) that players are the main reason for the improved stats. I do think players are vastly better now than when Pelz did his "study", but the other variables make that impossible to discern.
As for the idea that players will put more work in putting to compensate for increased shot pattern sizes, they already max out work in all phases of the game. Time is a zero sum game and players should spend most of that time on long-game work (obviously this is a generic statement).
I don't think putting rates will change much in the future from where they are right now, if any. On the other hand, tee shot and approach shot data will continue to improve for the foreseeable future.
Cliff notes: putting at some point becomes all about luck on a week to week basis. Yes the best putters have to get less lucky, but the weeks they gain 8 is nothing more than variance. AKA the best drivers have a smaller standard deviation than the best putters.
I'm not sure what you don't understand. I don't think Pelz' data was accurate and since every inch from 3-8' is 1% in your make rate measurement accuracy is very important. I also think that agronomy, spike mark rules, and equipment has improved. These are all confounding variables to your point that there has been a significant improvement in putting because that implies (IMO) that players are the main reason for the improved stats. I do think players are vastly better now than when Pelz did hi
And the same goes with drive/approaches. That technology has improved and made player exclusive improvements more difficult to discern. But it seems more than obvious to me that putting skills are far above what they were 30 years ago, on multiple levels.
As for the idea that players will put more work in putting to compensate for increased shot pattern sizes, they already max out work in all phases of the game.
To paraphrase Ben Hogan from Five Fundamentals, "there is not enough time in the day to practice all the shots necessary to play competitive golf." Some have greater endurance and determination to practice than others, that is axiomatic but should be accepted as fact. Not all have the luxury to practice on everything, in fact it is probably fair to say it is close to impossible to practice on everything. Hence focus in specific areas is necessary.
Time is a zero sum game and players should spend most of that time on long-game work (obviously this is a generic statement).
Players should focus practice in areas where marginal improvements yield the greatest success. This is a mathematical fact.
I don't think putting rates will change much in the future from where they are right now, if any.
I don't see how or why that trend would suddenly change. PGAT chances of making an 8 foot putt in 2010 was 49%, this year it was 54%. Only considering putts in that range adds up to about 1.5 shots per 72 holes. Which ignores other putts outside of that range. When including all putts with similar scale of improvement adds up to about 3 shots per 72 holes.
On the other hand, tee shot and approach shot data will continue to improve for the foreseeable future.
The new ball will certainly have an incremental impact on some players more than others. McIlroy believes it will help longer players over the shorter players and I tend to agree. However the game is not played in a vacuum and multiple factors could mitigate this. Course setups will almost certainly be different. I anticipate hole locations for PGAT events will be easier with the increased dispersion on approaches. There will almost certainly be fewer 2-putt birdies on par-5s, which has a profound impact on low scoring (and will hurt less skilled putters).
And it will take time for skills improving to the point where they can compensate for shorter drives and longer approaches. (i.e. SG with the current ball)
Cliff notes: putting at some point becomes all about luck on a week to week basis. Yes the best putters have to get less lucky, but the weeks they gain 8 is nothing more than variance. AKA the best drivers have a smaller standard deviation than the best putters.
Certainly driving/approach SG has less variance than putting SG week over week. But last I checked nobody wins every week, even Tiger Woods failed in this endeavor. Professional golfers have different goals. If it is to simply make the cut and make decent change then the generic approach of long driving works best. But those who can excel with the putter in one of every x tournaments and put themselves in position to win is probably the easiest path to success. And that is far more likely with strong putters.
IRT practice, I have read and seen several so called experts teach putting drills to promising players. I don't claim to have all the answers but it is intuitively obvious that the easiest path to marginal improvement is improving on putts with highest leverage, i.e. putts from 8-10 feet. Yet I have not seen any teacher focus on this range. Additionally, when I see good players make fundamental observational errors, for example not understanding why an offline uphill putt did not break with the apparent slope, how much room for improvement is still available.
And the same goes with drive/approaches. That technology has improved and made player exclusive improvements more difficult to discern. But it seems more than obvious to me that putting skills are far above what they were 30 years ago, on multiple levels.
To paraphrase Ben Hogan from Five Fundamentals, "there is not enough time in the day to practice all the shots necessary to play competitive golf." Some have greater endurance and determination to practice than others, that is axiomatic but shou
I'm not going to waste my time with anything other than your last paragraph. You are beyond incorrect saying that strong putters have a more likely path to success. The data is so clear on this I'm surprised to read this from you as you do seem informed. As for you don't see teachers focusing on highest leverage, just because YOU don't see it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I've stated FOR YEARS that the best putters separate themselves the most from 5-12' (not 8-10) and that is where I have players focus for "make rates" and focus on speed control for everything else. Again, you seem to be well informed, but you also seem to think you know it all. This obviously isn't your job or main focus or you wouldn't have posted the majority of this.
