1/3 - Call or fold to river bet?

fold river, fold the turn

pre might be a fold too. depends how squeeze happy the players are behind.

You are nitty!

Super easy fold.

Reason? What do you think he shows up with here? 6 is super unlikely, and I'm not sure if he'd bet as big as 60 with Ax. Seems like a flush or nothing.

So, in this hand, I'd fold. The villain's aggression and the board texture make me think they might have a strong hand, and I don't want to get stacked again.

Betting 60 with Ax when backdoor diamonds come in and the board pairs the 6 doesn't really make sense since I could easily have trips or a flush here, and even if he was going to value bet big with an ace, it would probably be AK/AQ and there's a good chance he 3bets those pre.

Don't think he checks flopped sets, and I doubt he checks the flop and bets the turn if he has a 6. A6 kind of makes sense.

I think I'm looking at mostly flushes, 78/79 and some air. If he took a stab at the pot with something JT on the turn, after HJ and myself both checked again, would he continue on that river? 60 could be trying to push me off my hand, no?

I never really like being the first caller when setmining, but for this price, in LP, and assuming those behind are much more likely to call than squeeze, I'm ~ok with preflop.

When it checks to me I probably bet small to protect against overs.

As played I fold the turn. We're facing a chunky bet (even chunkier if this game is raked) and we have poor IO on all our outs cuz the board will be so scary / we're OOP.

Are we thinking of bluffcatching the river? Or bluffing with a check/raise? I don't do either and just fold. Us showing up with a boat makes zero sense given how we played the hand (so rules out bluffing). One of the semi-bluffs (the flush) got there and most people aren't bluffing the turn multiway (so sorta makes bluffcatching meh). Although a lot check back TP here so admittedly he seems polarized to a flush or nothing (but in LLSNL a lot of players only have a value pole).

GcluelessNLnoobG

You lose to all his value and most of his bluffs (you’re losing to a ton of his ‘nothing’😉.

I know I lose to his values hands, but A6 and flushes are the only ones that seem to make sense.

I don't really lose to any of his bluffs. He doesn't show up with 45 or 88 when he takes that line. The majority of his bluffs are hands like T9, J9, JT, QT, etc.

Bluff-catching. I don't think he has an ace, and I beat most of his bluffs.

I called the turn because 44 might be ahead, and I have a good amount of equity against Ax. I went into reasons why I don't think Ax or 6x are likely to be in his range once he bets the river. He never has a straight here either. Not too worried about what I can rep since I don't think he's thinking that hard about that.

I don't want to check raise the river. It's either call or fold. The question is how often does he continue bluffing the river after I call the turn.

So...maybe you're smarter than me, and have some insight I don't have. This is just how I view this spot...

The HJ is the PFR. We have 44, and flop an OESD to go with our low PP. When the PFR / HJ checks, I would bet, because no matter what anyone else has, we have a pair and an OESD, and we double-block the nuts, so it's nearly impossible for us to be in terrible shape, and we can call a raise.

I also like a bet because it's likely to fold out the BTN, unless he has a VERY strong hand, allowing us to get this heads-up and in position with the PFR, which will make it easier to realize our equity.

But, we check, and the flop checks through. So, that's unfortunate. The turn brings the Ad, which adds a BDFD. The HJ checks again, so it seems like he's giving up on the hand.

Here again, when HJ checks, I think we should bet, because we still have a pair and an OESD, and now we can rep the A, or possibly a flush on the river, because all our AX and flush draws would play this way, as a check on the flop and a bet on the turn.

Making our straight would just be an extra bonus. Few opponents are going to put us on 4x for a straight if an off-suit 7 or 2 rolls off. They're more likely to put us on a busted flush draw, and pay us off.

I doubt 44 is likely to win at showdown, unimproved, unless we're up against a naked flush or straight draw that doesn't improve to a better 1P.

The only hands I could see V betting on the turn, that don't beat us on the river, would be combos of 87s (not diamonds), or 87o - bluffs with outs to improve on the turn, that just brick the river. Every other bluff is likely to be a flush draw, that makes a flush on the river.

But, again, we checked, and then V bet. But he bet kind of large, 2/3 pot. Sure, that could be a bluff, but if anyone calls, he's likely to just give up on the river, at least some of the time, rather than bluff again. How likely is he to try to rep a flush holding 8c7c, when the board is paired?

If you think he's bluffing EVERY combo of any two over-cards on the turn, for 2/3 pot, AND barreling for $60 into $70 on the river, when the river completes the flush draw, AND pairs the board, AND the board is ace-high, well...you have a very special V. MAYBE he bluffs with SOME of those combos, but most opponents are just giving up on the river when you call the turn.

You can't logically say that you called turn with 44 because you have equity against Ax, and then say that you don't think Ax is in his range.

I get why you don't think he'd bet $60 into $70 with just Ax, but I disagree. I think plenty of low stakes players are capable of understanding that you cap your range when you flat call pre and check all three streets, and they'll go for max value with AX. I mean, it's not like you're showing up on the river with a lot of good AX combos, the way you played this.

V could have A6. He could have 65, or 64, or 76. I could see him checking flop and betting turn with all those combos, when the board is this connected. He might also check back flop and bet turn with some flush draws.

If you look at the range that bets river for value, AX is 2P, and that's the weakest part of his range. He has some flushes and boats, as well as trips. He might want to go big, even if you cap your range, because the pot is so small. I'd think a V who has already gotten stacked and re-loaded would be desperate for max value.

Could he be tilted, and bluffing with air? Sure. Absolutely. We gave him plenty of rope to bluff, by playing our hand as passively as we did. But what are his bluffs here, that flat call from the BTN, check flop, bet 2/3 pot on turn, and then bet $60 into $70 on the river, after we call turn, when the river completes a flush draw AND pairs the board, AND the board is ace-high?

This has to be a pretty under-bluffed spot.

We lose to 74, 42, 5x, 33, any ace, any two diamonds, any higher PP, and any 6. We beat 22, and two over-cards that decided to get spicy by stabbing turn (large), then continue to bet large on the river. I think 22 mostly just gives up on the river, because 22 still beats our busted draws.

We beat nothing that bets the river for value, and he has a TON of value combos that would play exactly this way.

We ONLY beat bluffs, and not even ALL his bluffs. And even if we think he has a TON of bluffs, that are total air, why would we think that, when we've only been playing with him for 20 minutes, and he lost his stack on a coin-flip? It's not like we've watched him dust off multiple buy-ins trying to bluff rocks for the past few hours.

So...maybe he has something like 87s that isn't diamonds...just three combos. If you want to give him every combo of 87, then it's 15 combos we beat. But I think that's being optimistic.

If you're going to tell us you snapped him off, and he showed QJ or something equally fishy, okay, fine, then the kid is spewtastic, and you made a hero call with a hand that is only beating bluffs.

Calling in a spot like this is mostly losing long term, which is why everyone is saying it's a fold.

But, let me guess - you called?

There's a lot of comments in that response, so I'll just lay out my thinking about his range. I don't think this kid is a high level player and might have been a little tilty from just getting stacked. Sure, he's probably thinking a bit about what I could have here, but I don't think he's very good at it.

Before I break that down, as fair as my line goes, I thought I should have bet the flop as well to fold out random overs (mentioned in the main post), but I ran this hand by a friend who's been an online cash pro for about 15 years, and he said the flop and turn checks were fine. We didn't discuss those actions in any detail though, so I can't offer his reasons. I don't like betting the ace on the turn and putting myself in bad spots when he calls and I brick the river, and I may not be able to get value from him if I make a straight. I prefer just check/calling with showdown value.

You mentioned hands like 42/74/33. He almost never checks back the flop with when he flops a straight or a set. These hands just aren't in his range, especially straights given the size of his river bet relative to the runout.

6x hands are also betting the flop most of the time, and same thing as above when it comes to his river sizing. If he did check back the flop with a 6, he's probably not deciding to bet one when the ace turns, and if he did, he's probably not putting out a pot size bet on the river when the flush gets there. If he bet closer to 40, he's more likely to have a 6. A6 is definitely possible though.

I guess 5x hands might check flop and bet turn but will most likely check back the river with showdown value. It would be a really odd line to take with any 5x.

I think Ax is in his range when he bets the turn. I no longer think it's in his range when he bets 60 into a 70 dollar pot on the river. He bets smaller or checks it back. I mean, maybe he would have made that bet with AK/AQ, but I don't think so, and AK is probably 3betting pre anyway.

The only value hands that are likely besides A6 are flushes because it makes sense for him to semi bluff a turned flush draw and bet big for value on the river.

He's not betting random pocket pairs like 88/99 on the turn and then barreling nearly pot on the river. I beat all of his bluffs except in the rare cases.

78/79/89 could check or bet flop, so I definitely think those are in his range, but he also may take a stab at the turn with all sorts of T8/T9/J9/JT/Q9/QT/QJ type hands, and there are at on of them. The question then is how often does he bluff the river after I call? Betting 60 into 70 is definitely a size that could be trying to push me off my hand.

So, his range is basically A6, flushes and air. If I think he's bluffing more than a third of the time, it's a call.

I thought about it for about 30-40 seconds and ended up folding, and he showed JTo. Wish I thought about it a bit longer because I think I could have found the call.

Yeah im folding here. Definitely not calling, im more inclined to raise than call.

Oddly enough, the girl who opened in the HJ said she had 99 after the hand was over. I would have thought KQ or something like that, but you never know.

Only a 3-way pot. We both showed weakness by checking the flop and turn, and it's not like he's risking much.

What hands are you trying to fold out by raising? He'd be getting a pretty good price; 110 more to win about 300. I doubt I'd get him to lay down a flush, but I guess he could.

Respectfully, I think you're falling victim to the logical fallacy of assuming our opponents play like we do, or that they're playing "correctly". Starting from that logically faulty premise, it leads into making a bunch more assumptions that don't necessarily comport with reality. Such as:

"I don't think this kid is a high level player..." - You only had 20 minutes with him. How can you possibly make that assessment? The one hand of note, he got stacked QQ v. AK, which doesn't indicate he's bad or good.

"...might have been a little tilty from just getting stacked." - Certainly possible, but tilted players don't play "correctly". They play badly, so we can't necessarily rule out certain hands on later streets because a good, thinking player wouldn't have those in his range.

"...he's probably thinking a bit about what I could have here, but I don't think he's very good at it." - Again, after 20 minutes, we have no way to know how good he may be at ranging us.

"He almost never checks back the flop with when he flops a straight or a set." - We have 20 minutes with him, and he may be tilted. We can't know what he does with flopped sets or straights.

We can go through the rest of your post, and look at every factor regarding our hand-reading, and throw it out, because we have 20 minutes with him, and he may be tilted. We don't know if he's normally aggro, or more aggro when he's tilted. We don't know if he's normally bluffy, or more bluffy when he's tilted.

There's more:

"I may not be able to get value from him if I make a straight." - We don't know that. And it's not a good reason to NOT bet our hand on flop, or even turn, when the PFR checks to us twice.

We just don't know enough to be making so many assumptions here.

I see that he had JTo. Once we see that, then we can start to build a profile of how he plays. Clearly he's capable of pouncing on perceived weakness and bluffing with air, but that's not too hard when action checks to him twice. I think I'd be stabbing turn a lot in his spot.

But even if he has a lot of bluffs in his range, our hand doesn't really fare all that well as a bluff-catcher here. A lot of his turn bluffs improve on the river, and a lot of those that don't just give up. We can't rule out that he's capable of over-playing a weak value hand, by turning a better pair into a bluff, so we still lose to some of his bluffs.

I think if you go back and look at the hand from the beginning, you'll see that we opened the door for him to start bluffing on the turn when we checked to him twice. We could have bet flop or turn, and he would have folded.

The line you took was weak, in that it didn't maximize the value of your hand. We had a PP with an OESD that double-blocked the nuts. Our hand was strong enough to bet flop and / or turn, when the PFR checked to us. This board is going to favor our range more than the PFR's, and we had the green-light to bet.

Man, this sure reads like a reverse HH. OP, if you are actually V here and are pissed that "Hero" called two streets with 44, I can only suggest that you go read the stickies.

I don't think he plays like "we do" or correctly at all. Quite the opposite. My experience of playing with 20 year old preppy college kids at these stakes is that they're generally pretty bad and make a lot of mistakes. They're overconfident, have a few concepts down but not that well, and they get frustrated when they lose stacks because two or three hundred dollars is a lot to them. In this situation, that happened to be the case. He should have bluffed the flop instead of waiting for the turn, but given his line, he shouldn't have risked 60 on the river. 40, give or take, would have done the trick. I have to go with the information I have available to me, and not taking averages into account would be an error.

I didn't want to write an entire essay for the first post, but I have a few reasons for having that opinion. Some of them are mentioned above, but he was also sitting next to me, and when we were talking I asked him how his day was going and he said, "Not good," and seemed a bit annoyed. Also, twenty minutes was more than enough for me to get a general read after seeing him play a few hands and listening to him talk. It shouldn't take that long to get a general read on an opponent. A few hands can give you a lot of information.

If I were to pick a player at random and had to guess, this is a situation where a set or straight gets checked back maybe 5-10 percent of the time. It just doesn't happen very often. Sure, 33 and 55 are possible, but they still make up a pretty small part of his range.

Well again, I don't think he's playing correctly in the first place, but if he is tilting, he's more likely to bluff the river.

I have to take into consideration what kinds of hands are going to call me if I bet my open-ender on the turn. If he calls with a draw and misses, I'm not getting paid. If he has 3x or 4x, he probably doesn't pay off the river very often. If he has an ace, I'm not getting him to fold the river. I have to check any diamond, so I don't get to bet for value on two of my outs. I guess I could bet/fold a 4 on the river, but meh. What hands do you think I'm getting value from if I bet the turn and make my straight besides and ace—that I'm currently behind? Repping an ace and folding out random overs is nice, but I prefer the check.

Well, yeah, diamonds get there, but I don't think he's turning 5x into a bluff very often. He could, but those hands usually check the turn. If he does bet the turn and I call, he's checking that river most of the time. I can't rule out weak value hands completely, but they're still unlikely.

Opening the door for bluffs can be a good thing.

Nah, I'm the hero here. Even though it's a not a big pot, I thought it was an interesting hand to talk about ranges, bet sizes, etc. I was a bit surprised when posters said to fold 44 pre and again on the turn. Like, what? Anyway, I folded the river and he showed the bluff - JTo.

Grunching...the problem calling with 44 isn't your set-mining odds; it's the possibility someone left to act could 3-bet.

I don't have an opinion about whether you should've called the river, but implying that the fold was wrong because he has a nonsense bluff is LOL.

Obviously someone behind could have 3bet, but in 1/3 games (at least the ones I play in), most players aren't 3betting light—even in this spot. Not to mention, some players will 3bet too small, and the HJ will flat. If they do, I don't mind coming along knowing the BTN will also flat a lot of the time. If the BB makes it 45 and the HJ calls, I'm fine putting in another 35 to win 180 (or 145) with implied odds. Is it really reasonable to fold preflop because someone might 3bet? I don't think so. Someone else also said to fold the turn.

Well, I thought about it for about half a minute. I was considering calling, but in smaller pots like this I don't like to keep everyone else waiting. After seeing his bluff and thinking about the hand later, I decided that it was a call. Of course seeing the JT bluff helped me realize that, but it's not altogether results oriented. I've folded to bluffs and still thought it was the right play.

I'm saying that it actually probably was wrong. Don't players make "nonsense" bluffs all the time? This isn't even that crazy of a nonsense bluff. The idea that a player won't have total air in his range in some spots seems naive because it happens all the time.