JJ facing 2 AI
2/5, 8 Max, $1000 max bi, 4th hand on a newly opened feeder table so all my reads are tenative. All players are new to me except V3.
V1 UTG, mawg, opens to 15. He's played every hand so far on a seemingly fit or fold (FOF) basis.
V2 utg+1, owg, FOF style, 75% vpip, calls.
V3 in LJ, mabg, total spaz who I have history with, makes lots of moves, vpip = 90%, extremely bad. Buys in small at $300 repeatedly. Extra loose till he doubles or triples up. He has played all hands and is down to ~$200. He goes insta AI, which I would call or raise to iso with any top 15% hand.
V4 $800, MABG, in HJ, insta AI. He's 25% vpip.
H in CO, $800, 0% VPIP so far, on HJ, I see JJ. Do I shove here or fold?
Still to act---
Bu with $1000 with 0% vpip, 30ish WG.
SB with $1100 has already won a small pot, 30ish WG. Appears to be the best player who I think has made a couple of aggressive plays.
BB OWG $800.
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17 Replies
This is a fold with zero dollars invested and against several uncapped ranges. You're never in great shape here and often you only have two outs. 160bb is a lot too.
Put it this way: you're calling $800 to win a final pot of $1930. You need 41% equity.
Best case scenario is everyone folds (not a guarantee at all), V3 has 77, and V4 has AK. In that spot, you have 44% equity (although slightly more in the big side pot).
A lot of the time you are going to have something like 17% here against a bigger pair and a random hand.
V4 might have the same read as you and be as wide as KTs/ATo ... I call it off. Depends a lot on how I view V4.
Feels like a pretty trivial fold. V4 has two overs or an overpair here for sure, unless he's insane even against v3. V1 remains uncapped as do Button, SB, BB. Also non-zero prob that v2 was trapping wth call. And v3 may well have decent equiity against us.
Let's not play bingo.
Just to play devil’s advocate, wouldn’t V4 contemplate just calling the 200 with aces or kings?
This feels like AK but I’m probably folding. Calling with queens.
As I understand it all are complete unknowns except for V3...most importantly V4 is unknown and making a decision for 160BB based on a timing tell would be quite bold. This is a very standard fold for me. You still have three players yet to act, you still have UTG who you've described as v loose but might be on a heater based on 4 hands. Crushed by QQ and flipping with AQ I fold. Like OmahaDonk I'd jam QQ.
(Would people fold all AK here, or get involved with AKs?)
Just to play devil’s advocate, wouldn’t V4 contemplate just calling the 200 with aces or kings?
This feels like AK but I’m probably folding. Calling with queens.
Trying to read into the timing tell is interesting. I don't think it's worth doing without more of a read on the player. Some people that I play with would never snap jam AKo here because they are nits and it would be a painful spot for them. Whereas if V4 was a young grinder type or a big gambler, the snap jam might make me think AK.
I can go either way. Really depends on V4 and the vibe I get from him.
I folded. Everyone else folded.
Flop JT2 which only added to my pain.
V3 wins with 99
V4 showed A7o. I would later learn V4 is extremely wild and a PLO8 player waiting for his table. Those guts are often insanely wild.
A couple of orbits later I would have shoved.
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Take this with a grain of salt, because I've read the reveal.
I'm generally not a huge fan of getting AI pre-flop without a REALLY strong hand, against weak players, because I feel like there will be plenty of opportunity to out-play them post-flop in other hands. I especially don't like it when I know a weak player is likely to pick up and leave after doubling up, or will flick a switch into nit mode, and lock up their profits.
Even against good players, all-in pre-flop - we're not "playing poker" at that point. We're just gambling. If I wanted to flip for stacks, I'd do that. But I don't want to flip, I want to play the game.
To look at this another way, if I got heads-up in a big tournament with a Darren Elias or a Nick Petrangelo, I'd know they want to make me play pots post-flop,. They want to drag me out to the deep water, and force me to make lots of difficult decisions on turns and rivers. The only way to counter their skill edge would be to force them to make huge decisions for lots of money pre-flop, and jamming flops with low SPR's, because that negates our skill disadvantage.
That's basically what these rec-fish clowns are doing when they jam pre with whatever. If you fold JJ when they jam for >100bb, don't even look at the flop. Just pretend you were never dealt into the hand. Visualize out-playing them in future hands, now that they've doubled up and aren't anywhere near as likely to want to get stacks in pre with sub-optimal holdings, but may want to try connecting with a flop, by calling our raise.
Imagine calling with JJ, losing to A7, and going on tilt, while this a$$-hat is stacking chips in the vault, never to come out again. Don't play their game. Make them play yours.
Take this with a grain of salt, because I've read the reveal.
I'm generally not a huge fan of getting AI pre-flop without a REALLY strong hand, against weak players, because I feel like there will be plenty of opportunity to out-play them post-flop in other hands. I especially don't like it when I know a weak player is likely to pick up and leave after doubling up, or will flick a switch into nit mode, and lock up their profits.
Even against good players, all-in pre-flop - we're not "playing poke
Disagree with a lot of this, not for this specific hand but in general.
If we have JJ and they have AK we are doing better than a flip. We don’t “wait for better spots”, we take every profitable spot. And we don’t tilt, ever, for any reason. If they double up it’s up part of the process.
Flipping is fun 😃
Disagree with a lot of this, not for this specific hand but in general.
If we have JJ and they have AK we are doing better than a flip. We don’t “wait for better spots”, we take every profitable spot. And we don’t tilt, ever, for any reason. If they double up it’s up part of the process.
Flipping is fun 😃
I realize I'm not maximizing EV by folding in spots like this. My thinking is that we can maximize our EV in lots of other spots where the odds are more in our favor. Even though I can be really LAG at times, I tend to get super-nitty when the rec-fish start pushing stacks in.
This is location dependent but black players often have history with each other and I’d factor this into my read. Id suspect V4 has the same read on V3 as you do. Even with no history, it might be obvious to most of the table already that V3 is shoving extremely wide here based off just a few hands. If this was an OMC shoving here I snap fold but given the history, reads, and action I’m snapping off jacks and tanking with tens and going with a live read on V4. The read on V4 is the most important part of this puzzle, we can be behind V3 and still profit in this hand.
You’re almost certainly not 3betting anywhere close to enough if you’re afraid to get it in preflop without the nuts. It’s part of the game of no limit. If you’re never getting it in bad preflop, including in spots where you know you’re behind but you have to call off anyways because you got 4bet/5bet jammed on and you have the right price to call off now vs a shorter stack, you’re either marking the deck or you don’t have enough preflop aggression.
It's an observed characteristic that goes into the read. I can see it, in an area with a low proportion of blacks, that those who play hold'em there, are more likely to notice each other at the table and play differently towards each other. This other poster has noticed this phenomenon, and is sharing the observation with us.
In the same way if I saw doc, or sub, or java at the table (and knew what the hell they looked like) I'd play them differently than the population at large. I have knowledge of their play from their posts. The hypothetical black player #1 has knowledge of potential plays from black player #2, from cultural influences outside the table that they may share. They also may feel obligated by those influences, to play in a certain manner vs only that other black player. (Which can be hilarious if the players superficially sharing the same race, come from wildly divergent cultures and are expecting immediate understanding.)
It's an observed characteristic that goes into the read. I can see it, in an area with a low proportion of blacks, that those who play hold'em there, are more likely to notice each other at the table and play differently towards each other. This other poster has noticed this phenomenon, and is sharing the observation with us....
Congratulations! You've just posted something 10x more racist than the initial comment by Pug.
...You’re almost certainly not 3betting anywhere close to enough if you’re afraid to get it in preflop without the nuts. It’s part of the game of no limit. If you’re never getting it in bad preflop, including in spots where you know you’re behind but you have to call off anyways because you got 4bet/5bet jammed on and you have the right price to call off now vs a shorter stack, you’re either marking the deck or you don’t have enough preflop aggression.
There was an open from UTG, a call, a cold 3B jam, and a cold 4B jam.
Even if the UTG opener and caller are super wide, and the 3B jam was a short stack, the 4B'er has us covered, and he's not VPIP'ing like the other three are. How often is he jamming TT or worse PP's?
At best, we're going to be flipping against two overs. More likely, we're dominated. And if we pay this V off, he's not going to be putting that money at risk very often, with his described VPIP.
I think it's okay to err on the side of caution and let go of JJ here. If we're never letting go of medium pairs, we're just calling stations.
I'm actually very aggro, and probably 3B more than I should. I was recently in a very similar spot at 2/5, except everyone was deep stacked, and I 5B JJ. Action folded to the 4B'er, who ripped it in. I folded, and he showed KK.
5B'ing or calling off a 4B jam for >150bb's with JJ at low stakes is not advised.