2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

The Orange colored nyc conman will not lose a vote, and Mark Robinson probably gained a few votes.

It’s not every election cycle that I purchase 20k NC ballots but I have this year. Expect no change in November of the Tar Heel state for Trump.

“Trump’s foreign policy sought to do much of what Putin wants to achieve, including intimidating Ukraine by withholding vital defensive weapons.”

Quite right. Putin wanted to undermine the NATO alliance, and Trump undermined the NATO alliance. Putin wanted to weaken the E.U., and Trump made little effort to express his disdain for the E.U. Putin wanted to weaken the U.S. political system, and Trump was unnervingly aggressive in trying to weaken the U.S. political system.

Putin wanted to hurt Ukraine, and Trump launched an extortion scheme that threatened to hurt Ukraine.

Why didn’t the Russian leader deploy troops into Ukraine during Trump’s term? Perhaps because Putin was so pleased with an American president who pursued goals in line with Moscow’s agenda.

Had Putin launched an invasion, it risked upsetting the course he was already delighted to see. Why would the Russian leader get in the way of the progress Trump was already delivering?"

Why didn't Trump get Paul Whelan out? He was abducted during Trump's tenure.

Well that certainly is one spin on the matter now I must say.

There are are some ridiculous takes in this thread

Robinson is toast in NC, it isn't just the black nazi stuff, he said he was pro slavery and was watching trans porn. While the right might view him as 'one of ours' on the issues they're not going to be super keen to vote for the 'n-word who watches tranny porn' even if he aligns with them politically

It may or may not swing the state, but might hurt Trump by a fraction of a percent

If Harris is winning NC though it's already over and Trump is toast, it won't be the state that tips it over the line to 270 unless somehow Trump wins MI or WI along with GA and AZ and NV yet specifically underpeforms in NC

If Trump wins PA AZ GA I guess it's enough if Harris wins WI MI NV and then NC can be the tipping point. I find it hard to believe Trump wins PA and loses NC though even with the black nazi who likes trans porn and is pro slavery on the Republican ticket for governor

On that note if anyone wants Robinson to win NC-Gov would happily take Stein for NC Gov

Would also happily take Trump outperforms Robinson in NC if anyone legitimately thinks Robinson's scandals help him like iwasbanned's post implies.

Am open to props on Harris sweeping the swing states too if anyone wants to offer me +500 or similar on Harris to win all of MI WI PA NC NV AZ GA and the Presidency. Obviously this is somewhat correlated but also requires her to win multiple states where she's currently trailing.

Fairly likely i'll start betting on Harris soon, but don't see any reason to get involved yet even though I make her closer to -150 than -111, would rather take -150 when she's -300 fair price a week out or whatever will be available then to have more complete info and fade the bet when it goes bad

Your views of conservatives is something else I must say, but certainly not modern reality of the modern day person you'll meet on the street.

Trump has a razor thin margin of error. He can win everything he needs to for the swing states in his favor, but still needs PA or it's toast. Kammie-La pulling off a single one of them, and any swing state not going her way equals election over and potentially WW3 at the rate we're going under her and Biden.

imagine being featured in newsweek for your election model based on prediction markets and...

https://www.newsweek.com/data-scientist-predicts-kamala-harris-landslide-2024-election-1955575

Newsweek

Data scientist

surely nothing more ridic than "only death can stop biden"... find it odd you continue to speak authoritatively in this thread making precise fair value estimates on an event that might as well be schroedingers box

-500 is worse than mkt odds for anyone eager to fade this correlated par lay

Yeah, Swoop, it's pretty rich for you to bring up bad takes in this thread. Your posts also smack of bias, which is fine for op-eds, but that's not what anyone wants to read here. For example, do you really think this black lieutenant governor in NC is pro-slavery? Like if he were given the authority to do so, he would reinstitute slavery? I'm not going to bother looking into whatever joke or edgy comment he made that led to scumbag journalists reporting that he's pro-slavery, but just use your brain—especially with regard to things you'd like to be true but that might not be true.

I'm not going to bother to look into what he said, proceeds to have opinion about what he said and what his actual opinions are

I've always posted my positions on the politics threads here and I'm up substantially across a bunch of election cycles. I got Biden not dropping out wrong and lost a normal sized bet as opposed to anything huge. I'm down small this cycle so far but the size of the bet was trivial compared to whatever I'll end up with on the general. I went 1-1 in 2016 for a loss having a Clinton bet split between popular vote and ec. I won my biggest bet ever in 2020 on Biden. I won an assortment of bets in 08 and 12. Went 1-1 on major bets in 2010. Didn't have anything significant on the other cycles.

I'm offering bets here if anyone wants to either give me action or tail then elsewhere. If not feel free to ignore me.

At this stage it's likely I'll be betting Harris at some stage (likely hedged with Walz at close to 500 bucks on Betfair in case of random assassinations or health issues) but I haven't yet, there is no real reason to get involved this far out still with incomplete info when I very much doubt the market is going to adjust correctly as we get closer to the election in either direction. Ad it stands Harris is probably about 60 percent to win which is the ev side, but we will have better information closer to the election

Offer stands if anyone thinks Robinson wins in NC or outperforms Trump vote percentage wise will take his opponent at market price in the governor race or will take Trump to outperform him if anyone thinks his comments help him.

Best of Luck

How is it a hot take? Harris is on video saying they'd get Ukraine into NATO. This is really provocative stuff.

I would offer my 5k to your 1k if you still want this.

I didn't have my radar on the N.C. gubernatorial campaign, but it looks like Robinson was behind in the polls all along. He's headed for a convincing loss. But I doubt his scandals will have an affect on Trump. Seems like N.C. will be, once again, close but most likely go for Trump with a narrow margin.

Will shoot you a pm

Just to confirm my 200 vs codys 1k on the sweep swing states prop is booked

I'm going to add a bit elsewhere but realised a slightly better price is available via electoral vote handicap lines on Betfair but honouring my price since I wouldn't have done the extra research yet if he didn't accept the bet

Don't mind it anyway so booked a little with Cody anyway but offer no longer open to others as I'll be filling it elsewhere along with some other spreads

Added a bunch of Harris -99.5 electoral votes at +800 and +820 mix, +7xx after rake. Not on huge yet in real dollar terms but will build the position as liquidity refreshes on both -99.5 and -64.5 lines.

The Harris -99.5 and -64.5 lines are wrong and are massively overestimating how often the election will be close, to be honest the trump landslide prices are better than him squeaking out a close one too the market is artificially expecting the rake to be closer than it will be on average regardless of who wins but at the moment the Harris landslide is the more likely of the two

Anyway. Got a little +500 with Cody since I wouldn't have noticed how wrong the market is if he hadn't accepted the bet and have some +7xx average elsewhere after vig

The standard sweep swing states electoral college is exactly a 100 electoral votes win assuming one ev for the d in Nebraska and one ev for the r in Maine

The -64.5 line at +300 is great too but feels a lot less urgent to bet it but I will have some at that altline too, I think when Harris wins she covers this line over half the time so it's substantially better than -111 ml or so. For what it's worth when Trump wins he probably covers this line half the time or so as well but as it stands I think Harris winning is decently more likely.

For what it's worth Bidens map covers -64.5 but not -99.5 but both of Obama's maps cover -99.5. even trump 2016 covered the -64.5

Regardless of who wins the market is overestimating how likely it is the swing states split fairly evenly

Anyway I'm officially involved on electoral votes spreads now that we're only a month and change out. Let's go!

Gl all

Booked and GL

Fwiw the 64.5 line allows Harris to lose Georgia (or Arizona or a non pa midwest state) but I don't think it's quite enough to cover the gap from +3xx to +7xx price wise

I do think there's a decent jump though to get beyond 319 EVs as winning oh or fl or a surprise state like Iowa or Texas or whatever is very tough for the D side

319 is enough to cover -99.5 though assuming Maine and Nebraska go as expected by exactly 0.5 I assume that's why that altline number was chosen

Obviously it could be a close election but depending which way it swings late I could see Harris winning 6 or 7 out of 7 swing states easily and there's even a path for Trump to sweep them when he wins although that'd involve him improving his popular vote percentage quite a lot

Cheers

Now that it's booked do you just like the spot or noticed I was offering better than Betfair accidentally because I didn't realise altlines have opened?

I still think I have the best of it and fair is about +350 or something due to the correlation but obv I have to fill at market price now that a 99.5 altline is open and can get +7xx etc, managed to add a few hundred more there today at that price and will keep adding as the liquidity refreshes if the price holds up

Not tying up anything on the head to head matchup, shorter altlines or states yet but at +7xx couldn't say no to that and had to honour the +500 for a little bit at least since I posted it in thread

Glgl

I didn't really compare other lines, it was just off the top of my head that I liked it. Fair value? I think the true fair value is like -5000 +5000 or something in that ballpark. If you treat each state independently the odds are less than 1% it happens using polymarket averages. Correlation erases some of this but not a ton.

Yeah ok appreciate the insight

The states are very much not independent if you look at recent cycles in that while a national swing isn't uniform it does affect all of the states even trump covered a -64.5 line in an election he lost the popular vote. Other than 2020 the last time a Democrat won the presidency but didn't cover the spread was Carter for what it's worth. Obviously the national political climate is more polarised now but it's still nowhere near +5000

When Republicans won the Presidency trump covered -64.5 but not -99.5 but he lost the popular vote if he had won it by a couple percent it would have been enough to cover.

Bush didn't cover the spread either time but again lost the popular vote in 2000 and only barely won it in 04. Reagan and Bush Sr both covered the 99.5 spread in the 3 cycles before

It feels like it should be rare for candidates to win by 100 electoral votes but it's actually happened over half the time dating back half a century so I can't see any way it happens closer to 2 percent of the time than 20 percent, granted I need a specific candidate to win by that margin for my bet

It's interesting stuff but I'm pretty confident the market is overstimating the chances of the swing states splitting fairly evenly it feels like we'd need Harris to win the popular vote by 1 percent or so for that to happen and if she either loses the popular vote or wins it by like 4 percent or something the swing states could easily go 7-0 in either direction

Anyway glgl

Nc Republicans going hard for low turnout with a purge of inactive voters (such an American thing it's absurd there should just be a national database that if someone enrols to vote in another state their previous state enrolment is cancelled and otherwise enrolment to vote is just permanent)

Robinson so toxic to their brand they may lose anyway in NC though with people turning out to vote against him for governor

I think I'm going to get a bit of the -64.5 line sometime in the next few weeks when a good price is up, saw some +400 yesterday but didn't take it yet, do like it though that allows Harris to lose either NC or GA or Az+NV and still cover. Don't think the latter if likely if she wins NC and GA though she will be winning Nevada. Same applies to Michigan.

I think the chances of Harris winning a super close election by one tipping point state are lower than the market seems to think, it's super likely to be a multiple state victory if she gets over the line with some outright losses too if her polling gets worse

PA is probably the state that gets either candidate to 270 but it's pretty unlikely it's decided by exactly the tipping point state

never thought i'd agree with swoop but here we are. there's no way you can treat each state as independent events. they're absolutely correlated and not in a small way. not to say they'll all go one way or another... 5-2 or 4-3 seems most likely... but you're a fish if you're calculating each state's odds as independent events.

that said, swoop's argument that half of elections last half century have been 100+ electoral margins is unconvincing because it ignores polling distributions for each of those elections relative to today's polls, plus the inherent outperformance of trump against polls in his last two campaigns. polling/sampling bias is a huge issue today not just for politics but all jobs/sentiment/economic indicators we've relied on in the past.

To be fair the pollsters claim to have changed their methodology after previous misses and Trump isn't the unknown quantity he was in 2016 or the incumbent he was in 2020, he's been a different candidate each time - since the last election he's had Jan 6, the various indictments and conviction and is now 78 etc against a younger candidate who again has factors neither previous opponent had (significantly younger than Trump, is black, etc). Assuming he'll outperform polling because of 2016 or 2020 just because he did last time is flawed thinking. He absolutely could, but it is absolutely not guaranteed either, polling can miss in either direction and a significant polling miss in either direction could easily lead to either candidate sweeping the swing states 7-0 or coming close at 6-1 etc

I'd go as far as to say there's probably a 50%+ chance one of the two candidates wins o5.5 of the swing states regardless of who wins. I'd be surprised if the winning candidate doesn't sweep PA, WI, MI for example.

Granted we don't know what the polling will look like on election day, but the market is for sure overestimating the probability the swing states go 4-3 either way etc