Vice-President Kamala Harris

wouldn't be the first time i astroturfed either 😀

Is that just a one-off or did you not read all/most of the young kid Classics? Treasure Island, Kidnapped, Conn. Yankee, Ivanhoe etcetc 20K Leagues would be a weird one to miss though tbh.

In my defense, the English language uses prepositions like Trump uses facts. Connections to reality are optional.

What would it do to your axes if I told you the original wasn't English?

One thing is to kick a man while he is down, another is to take such joy in it.

Definitely read Treasure Island, Kidnapped, Around the World in 80 Days, and Robinson Crusoe in that format, but not the others.

Diabolical

Lmao ♥

What is the map? A current prediction? A poll?

The map is what the orange colored nyc conman will be crying about and calling rigged.

This is 270toWin (270) , RCP, 538.com, and Nate Silver (NS) current predictions.

All of them except 270 have Trump leading in NC by 0.1% as of right now (270 has it at 1.1% Trump). So that's 16 electoral votes (EV) up for grabs.

538.com and NS have AZ (11 EV) and GA (16 EV) both under 1% as well for Trump, though 270 and RCP have these states at about 1.5% for Trump.

ME District 2 is 1% lead for Trump by 270 and RCP based on 2 polls so that is potentially another electoral vote up for grabs.

On the other hand RCP has NV (6 EV) at 0.2% for Kamala though 538.com has it at 0.7%, NS has it at 1.2% and 270 has it at 1.4%. If this swings to Trump it still gives Kamala 270 EV. But...

NE Republicans are now trying to alter how the state counts EV so that all 5 EV in NE will go to whoever wins the state and if they succeed then District 2 (1 EV) will get taken away from Kamala and if everything else on the map stays the same except for NV then it will be a 269 to 269 tie and Trump would become President (because congress would decide it by each state and the Republicans would almost definitely control the majority of electoral votes...)

NY Times/Sienna polls came out this morning and change 3 of the swing states (NS changes haven't come out yet)

AZ: Trump up by 1.3% @ 538, 2.2% @ RCP, but only 1.2% @ 270 (so 270 moved it closer to Kamala...)
GA: Trump up by 1.4% @ 538 and 2% @ RCP & 270
NC: Trump up by 0.4% @ RCP, 0.6% @ 538 but only 0.8% @ 270 (so 270 moved it closer to Kamala...)

How do the current polls compare to biden/trump 4 years ago?

Also, I keep reading that the pollsters are trying to adjust for underestimating trump the last two elections. How does this work?

Biden had a much bigger poll advantage, like not even close

It is tricky and not all pollsters do the same adjusting.

It's about how you reweight the polling sample, it can get very technical very quickly.

I trust Silver take on the fact that pollsters generally are doing it better than they were 4 or 8 years ago though

Unless the nyc conman does something more demented than usual (which is almost impossible) GA and AZ are off the board for Kamala Harris.

AZ just got a super pro trump poll but that doesn't mean it is a lock.

There is a reason why we aggregate polls

The nyc conman will outrun the national polls and swing state polls by 2% at a minimum, and 5% is a possibility.
Lots of the nyc conman's supporters refuse to identify themselves for various reasons (racism, sexism, they're embarrassed to admit it come to mind) so they either don't take part in polls, or claim they are undecided.
It is hard for polls to get the old, white, racist and sexist voters to participate.

@iwasbanned I actually think that "silent" trump approval is smaller than in the past, in various ways the barrier has been broken and it's far less costly for people to be pro trump in purple areas than it was 4 or 8 years ago.

So I think polls are actually better this time.

Older people answer the phone at least sometimes, it's the under 40 that can't be polled

lol, trump supporters in my neighborhood aren't the least bit hesitant to proclaim their choice. Lots of signs around here.

That is usually the case in purple areas yes.

There is no "trump shame" anymore. There might still be some on academia or whatever but that's not the real world

I don't think people felt ashamed to vote for Biden no

When this guy isn't ashamed to show his support for Trump, you know the tide has turned.

Why would Kamala be in shambles? This guy’s town is an embarrassment. He leads the first all muslim city council and what do they do? Get rid of pride flags because the muslims in his town hate gay people.

Also I keep seeing that he’s a democrat but where is that anywhere in any of his public comments?