Pokerstars Mystery Bounty 44$ tournament - Challenging spot

Tricky spot for sure, his 3 bet calling range doesn't really connect with this flop, him calling down 2 streets indicates an Ax perhaps weaker than yours, maybe floating with a pair between 99-KK, but that seems even less likely.

As played I'm not happy about it but I guess a sigh fold is in order, he's either value betting trips or better, some elaborate float/bluff, or in a more rare case value betting AQ, or AK as well, completely over valuing his hand, but in all honestly I don't think he is ever value betting a hand here that you can beat.

Won’t go into as played because basically you just inflated the pot and now your decision is whatever imho.

Calling 30 to win 80 you can probably call profitability vs a bunch of players. AXc is possible and a bunch of floats got there too, but decent V can recognise his A is not winning at showdown and turn hand into a bluff. Naked Ac likely too vs regs.

Check flop….

I'm not sure what a solver would say, but I personally prefer checking the turn with an intention of check calling.

You often get an extra bet out of loose flop floats that will stab when checked to and if it checks through you can go for a sizeable value bet on the river (on most rivers, probably not this one though with the back door draws coming in).

If he bets turn I check call a river jam on most rivers. I feel like you keep in more of your opponent's bluffs this way compared to when you bet turn.

As played you're in a tough spot on the river. You're getting a good price but what is he really bluffing with? T9s is about the only obvious combo that comes to mind. BDFD got there and it's hard to imagine he's value betting worse. I fold river. ICM is still a thing and if you were in the first level of the tournament I would be more apt to sigh call.

Also, how big the average mystery bounty is in comparison to the prize pool payouts is very relevant. There are a lot of factors to consider here and it's a tough spot for anyone to figure out on the fly

that is some absolutely atrocious advice, check back the flop when it is an obvious range bet with such an equity advantage you have, i want to take a spoon and rip my eyes out

We're OOP so there is no "checking back" anyway.

You might check the flop if you want to get a check-raise in (and just live with it if he has 8x). I don't know if that's sound strategy, though. You could also just bet the flop and pile the turn, I suppose.

flop is obv cbet since you are crushing this board with your equity advantage, turn can go either way since your best tp pairs should be mixing, when a strategy is mixed ask yourself
1) if i check now how likely is the villain to bet his draws or worse tp?
2) will get bluffed on the river if check now(from what i know against villain and against pop)? yes/no what i want to do with my hand?

As played the hand i would have bet something like 10% otr to sqz some more value from Ax. As most people are playing i would prefer to xshove turn, most people will bet a lot more in frequency when check to them with their draws and tps

lol, clown.

at least i am a clown who doesnt check back when is first to act

ITM in a mystery vs monster stack who can literally have any 2…

I mean we were discussing hands that developed equity on the turn, it didn’t really seem necessary to point out that V has all the 8’s and we have 0.

But sure go ahead pump the pot with your equity advantage you crusher.

Oh lord Jesus forgive me for not realising OP was OOP, does that just a make it OPOOP?

In all seriousness and away from this slap-fighting for a second, from IP you have much more control over pot size and can guarantee you can see another card if you check. So, yeah, checking doesn't really have the same value.

What would you do from OOP? Check or bet, how much? How do you respond to bets of various sizes?

You need these chips man. Youre not gonna win tournaments by being scared especially in later streets where rhe poker is played. The only reason I am checking otr is in the hopes villian piles in for me. I would just 3 barrel it if and if he tarped or outdrew us oh well.

Remember this is a mystery bounty MTT. 50% of the prize money are in the bountys. That means equity is also gained by staying alive in the tournament and be able to compete for the remaining bounties. Like in all other bounty tournament's you are at least somewhat incentivized to play tighter when you are a covered by the other player.

Also I believe it's never a given that you should stack of with 60bb in a tournament on a board where your hand is quite far from the nuts. Especially when you will be left with what is at least a decent stack this far in the tournament if you fold. That said I believe in a $44 and against a good aggressive player this certainly feels more like a call than in the $5 to $11:s I mostly play. Calling the river bet in this type of spots in them will mostly leave you disappointed, because they will almost always have it.

Appreciate all the different opinions! The Villain pushed with Th8h and I decided to call.
I was disappointed in myself making the call as I don’t really beat anything but bluffs.

Interesting spot anyway, and I think next time I’d rather check-fold or bet small. By betting 10-30% on the river, we get lot of info where we are in the hand. And if the Villain shoves, we’re still alive by folding.

I do think you can bet flop smaller, in that 20% range-continue size. With AK in a 3-bet pot you aren't worried about being outdrawn on an A88r board.

and yeah I also like block betting the river

This is the nature of poker that we all know too well. I doubt calling 3-bets in a 60bb effective pot with a suited one-gapper likte T8s is going to be a profitable play in the long run. Even when you do it IP like villain. But when you do get your lucky hit and the 3-bettor hits top pair or a high overpair you can win a big pot.

Of course a very good player might play this hand profitable against a weak and scared opponent.

The more I re-read this hand the more I feel he stole it from you. Hard to say without knowing how you play normally. He either had the nuts or you had him dominated. Bad spot to be in, my friend.