NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA
Just 8 days until Florida State plays Georgia Tech!
A lot happened while you were away:
Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
The Pac-12 went out in a blaze of glory:
Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA are headed to the B1G
Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are headed to the B12
Cal and Stanford along with SMU are somehow headed to the ACC
Poor old Wazzu and Oregon State are now aligned with the MWC in some sort of in-flux relationship
The conferences are huge now, and the schedules are wildly imbalanced. Florida might have the hardest schedule in the history of the sport, while Missouri's playing a sun-belt slate.
FSU and Clemson play each other, but then play ZERO common ACC opponents
Utah/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas State play non-conference games against conference opponents
LSU and USC play in Vegas!
Boise goes to Oregon, a team they've never lost to!
Texas at Michigan!
Alabama at Wisconsin!
Notre Dame at ATM!
Clemson vs Georgia!
And there are some incredibly juicy new conference matchups:
Texas @ ATM is back!
Texas vs Georgia
Oregon vs Ohio State
USC @ Michigan
USC vs Penn State
And then the bizarre:
UCLA @ Rutgers is now a conference game
Syracuse plays home and away against Cal and Stanford for some reason
Half the teams have new coaches, transferred quarterbacks, or both!
Let's get it on!
Connelly has Arkansas with a 6.8% postgame win expectancy which would've been good for second best (worst?) last year. Nebraska, of course, lost with 97.5% win expectancy, but which opponent?
Spoiler
Minnesota
Connelly has Arkansas with a 6.8% postgame win expectancy which would've been good for second best (worst?) last year. Nebraska, of course, lost with 97.5% win expectancy, but which opponent?
Spoiler
Minnesota
All I know is USC had 92.9% equity--according to ESPN--and lost to THE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPIONS.
This week really flexes the new power of the playoff. Tons of games between 1-loss teams that would be drawing basically dead to make a 4 team playoff but are totally live in the 12 team version. Bama/Georgia loses a lot of the "do or die" stakes it would've had last year, but dozens of other games ramp up in intensity
THURSDAY
7:30:00 PM Army -12.5
7:30:00 PM Temple 13.5
Army is undefeated and looks to stay that way. This is the only game on Thursday, so if you don't watch, you hate America
FRIDAY
7:30:00 PM Virginia Tech 19.5
7:30:00 PM Miami -18.5
Elimination game for VT after their OOC losses to Rutgers and Vanderbilt. Miami has delivered three consecutive beatdowns against overmatched opponents, and sure looked a lot better than Alabama did at USF
8:00:00 PM Washington 2.5
8:00:00 PM Rutgers -2.5
Welcome to the new normal. Washington flies across the country for a conference game against undefeated Rutgers. Wazzu is also an interested party. Both teams are fringe playoff contenders, but Rutgers in particular has the softest B1G schedule, somehow dodging Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan.
SATURDAY
12:00:00 PM Navy -3.5
12:00:00 PM UAB 3.5
Fresh off a win against Memphis, Navy is undefeated
12:00:00 PM South Florida 6.5
12:00:00 PM Tulane -6.5
Both teams lost 2 noncon games against good P4 competition (Tulane lost close ones to K-State and Oklahoma, USF lost to Miami and Bama). The winner emerges as a legitimate AAC contender with very faint playoff hopes, the loser is dead.
12:00:00 PM Kentucky 17.5
12:00:00 PM Mississippi -17.5
Ole Miss faces its first opponent with a pulse
12:00:00 PM BYU 3
12:00:00 PM Baylor -2.5
Undefeated BYU is quite the surprise. At one point against K State they were being outgained 264-162... and winning 30-6. Vegas predicts that they will come back down to earth, but for now they are 4-0 and ranked
12:00:00 PM Oklahoma State 5.5
12:00:00 PM Kansas State -5
Both teams are coming off a loss. The loser will be on life support, the winner will be right back into the playoff mix
12:00:00 PM Buffalo 5.5
12:00:00 PM UConn -5.5
12:00:00 PM Northern Illinois 7.5
12:00:00 PM North Carolina State -6.5
NC State is absolutely reeling after getting beaten by Tennessee and Clemson by about a thousand points. NIU beat ND then promptly lost to Buffalo. A win here would keep them in contention for the Mid Major bid.
12:00:00 PM Western Kentucky 13.5
12:00:00 PM Boston College -12.5
12:00:00 PM Maryland 7
12:00:00 PM Indiana -6.5
Indiana is also undefeated! Three cheers for the o5.5 crew. Reminder that they now have JMU's coach and half of last year's JMU team (which doesn't seem to have slowed JMU down very much!) Believe it or not, Indiana is 4-0 and I think they will be favored in every game (even at home vs Michigan?!) except Ohio State
12:00:00 PM Minnesota 9.5
12:00:00 PM Michigan -9.5
Every game is bold! Isn't the new era fun? Say what you want about Michigan's total inability to pass the ball, but a win is a win. They still play (and likely lose to) Ohio State and Oregon, so they can't afford any mistakes the rest of the way.
12:00:00 PM Nebraska -10
12:00:00 PM Purdue 10.5
1:30:00 PM Ball State 20.5
1:30:00 PM James Madison -20
3:00:00 PM Texas State -8
3:00:00 PM Sam Houston 8.5
3:30:00 PM Fresno State 3.5
3:30:00 PM UNLV -3.5
The winner will be one of the Mid Major playoff favorites along with Boise. UNLV still has Boise, Oregon State and Syracuse to play while Fresno has UCLA and Wazzu. Lots of solid, winnable games. I think the MWC winner is in the driver's seat for the mid major bid.
3:30:00 PM San Diego State 3
3:30:00 PM Central Michigan -3
3:30:00 PM Arkansas 3.5
3:30:00 PM Texas A&M -3.5
Winner has some fringe playoff hope, loser is on life support
3:30:00 PM Oklahoma -1.5
3:30:00 PM Auburn 2.5
Oklahoma still very live. The defense looks absolutely fantastic, but Arnold has been a disaster. He's benched for true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr, let's see if he does any better.
3:30:00 PM Liberty -3
3:30:00 PM Appalachian State 3.5
Liberty's only opponent with a pulse has been used as a punching bag the last two weeks. Hope App State can find their mojo again and get rid of Liberty for good
3:30:00 PM Georgia Southern 3.5
3:30:00 PM Georgia State -3.5
3:30:00 PM Western Michigan 4.5
3:30:00 PM Marshall -3.5
3:30:00 PM Louisiana-Lafayette 3.5
3:30:00 PM Wake Forest -2.5
3:30:00 PM TCU 2
3:30:00 PM Kansas -2
3:30:00 PM Colorado 14.5
3:30:00 PM Central Florida -14
UCF is still somehow unranked and completely under the radar. Vegas thinks this is a very good football team. Colorado seems to play an insane game basically every week.
3:30:00 PM Akron 12.5
3:30:00 PM Ohio -11.5
3:30:00 PM Eastern Michigan -13.5
3:30:00 PM Kent 14.5
3:30:00 PM Massachusetts 18.5
3:30:00 PM Miami (OH) -18.5
3:30:00 PM Louisville 6.5
3:30:00 PM Notre Dame -6
Louisville passed their first real test, beating GT, while ND has recovered nicely from that home loss to NIU. Massive playoff implications for both teams (and lots of other teams) in this one
3:30:00 PM Wisconsin 15
3:30:00 PM USC -14.5
And in this one! This week is stacked with these types of mid-tier shakeout games
4:00:00 PM UTSA 4.5
4:00:00 PM East Carolina -4
4:00:00 PM North Carolina 2.5
4:00:00 PM Duke -1.5
Did you know that Duke is 4-0? I bet you did not.
4:15:00 PM Mississippi State 38.5
4:15:00 PM Texas -38.5
5:00:00 PM Old Dominion 9.5
5:00:00 PM Bowling Green -8.5
6:00:00 PM Louisiana Tech -2.5
6:00:00 PM Florida International 2.5
7:00:00 PM UNC Charlotte 7
7:00:00 PM Rice -6.5
7:00:00 PM Tulsa 6.5
7:00:00 PM North Texas -6.5
7:00:00 PM Louisiana-Monroe 9.5
7:00:00 PM Troy -7.5
7:00:00 PM Iowa State -12.5
7:00:00 PM Houston 13.5
7:00:00 PM Stanford 22
7:00:00 PM Clemson -21.5
7:00:00 PM Ohio State -24.5
7:00:00 PM Michigan State 25
After three scrimmages, Ohio State starts playing real football for the first time (insofar as playing a team that lost to BC and beat FAU by 6 is a real opponent)
7:30:00 PM Middle Tenn. St 25.5
7:30:00 PM Memphis -24.5
7:30:00 PM Georgia -1.5
7:30:00 PM Alabama 2.5
The week's main event. First time Alabama has been a home dog in about 20 years
7:30:00 PM Illinois 17.5
7:30:00 PM Penn State -17
Turns out FAT BERT can coach some football! And for his part, Drew Allar has finally started actually slinging the ball a little bit. Important game for both teams. Illinois is about 9% to go 10-2 or better with a loss, and that surges to 40% (!) with a win. This includes a road game at Oregon! Penn State is 52% to go 10-2+ with a loss and 87% with a win
7:45:00 PM South Alabama 21.5
7:45:00 PM LSU -20.5
8:00:00 PM Air Force -4
8:00:00 PM Wyoming 4
8:00:00 PM New Mexico -8.5
8:00:00 PM New Mexico State 9.5
8:00:00 PM Cincinnati 3.5
8:00:00 PM Texas Tech -2.5
8:00:00 PM Florida State 5.5
8:00:00 PM SMU -5.5
SMU fell off the radar after losing to BYU at home, but that doesn't look so bad now. This is their first-ever ACC game.
10:00:00 PM Washington State 7.5
10:00:00 PM Boise State -7.5
If Wazzu can pull off the upset here, they're something like 25% to run the table. Wazzu in the playoff would be awesome. For their part, if Boise wins, they notch a marquee win in addition to their already-solid MWC slate
10:15:00 PM Arizona 12.5
10:15:00 PM Utah -11.5
Arizona is 2-1 after losing a "nonconference" game to K-State. Let's see if Cam Rising actually plays this time for Utah
11:00:00 PM Oregon -24
11:00:00 PM UCLA 24.5
UCLA was pluckier than expected at LSU, while Oregon seemed to finally break through on offense against Oregon State last week
I was so excited to fade Michigan and Vegas did not oblige. -9.5 vs Minnesota, lol :(
postgame win expectancy is different - it means based on the stats of the game, what are the odds that you won? in other words, Arkansas got lucky as hell to beat Auburn
Did not know that. Thx. Very surprised Michigan is not at the top of that list. We had 32 yards passing and a pick 6. Even our running game wasn't that great. Mostly running into a wall save 3 big runs. Seriously think USC beats us at least 8 out of 10 times.
I was so excited to fade Michigan and Vegas did not oblige. -9.5 vs Minnesota, lol :(
The fact we are only a single digit favorite over Minnesota practically proves we suck. That line is untouchable. Minnesota obviously is terrible but there's no way I bet Michigan as more than a TD favorite vs anyone on our remaining schedule when our offense is this broken.
GAWDAMMIT, STOP MAKING ME FIND NEW CHANNELS I'VE NEVER HEARD OF JUST TO WATCH MAH FOOTBAW
News Nation is okay, somewhere in between FNC and the CNN of 2002.
speaking of (former) BUFF HC's, lol Mike McCarthey and FIU.
They have been a weird team since he's been there - FIU has binked some great moneylines as a dog. but they have never covered as a favorite (including tonight)...you would be a better human being giving your money to the Salvation Army if u see a minus in front of the FIU point spread....
Not so Fun Fact if you're an Oklahoma Sooner fan.
OK had 15 first down plays against Tenn on Saturday. 7 total yds, 3 turnovers and a safety. Woof
Finally, Texas gets to play in the big bad SEC. First game and we're 35 point favorites.
I thought this league was tough top to bottom? After 12 years of being told by aggy that it's impossibly tough their boards have multiple threads on how easy our schedule is
DT T'vondre Sweat now with the Titans don't give ****
How our fanbase is currently feeling
We'll probably drop a game along the way, but let's ****ing go!
Confirmed. Bama is the only team in the country that can hang with Texas. Bye bye racist redneck conference contenders. Texas is the captain now.
Lol at the PAC-12 and their "no fair" lawsuit against the Mountain West.
Looks to me like the MWC had their act together and now the PAC-12 is calling foul.
You willing sign a contract and once one of the conditions kick in you cry that the conditions you agreed to are not fair, and that you were desperate, and that MWC took advantage of you, and that you want your mommy.
11:00:00 PM Oregon -24
11:00:00 PM UCLA 24.5
UCLA was pluckier than expected at LSU, while Oregon seemed to finally break through on offense against Oregon State last week
8pm local kickoff time
consider if you will a scenario where Oregon leaves LA on a charter flight sometime early sunday morning and suddenly has to prepare for a short week friday night home game against a MSU team led by a coach more than familiar with the opponent.
Finally, Texas gets to play in the big bad SEC. First game and we're 35 point favorites.
I thought this league was tough top to bottom? After 12 years of being told by aggy that it's impossibly tough their boards have multiple threads on how easy our schedule is
Nah nah nah nah nah, none of that opening line at 1:30-in-the-morning-in-lucky-ass-legal-states crap! 39 points, mother****er! Anything less is a complete and total failure!
On the bright side; you get to open with the worst non-Vanderbilt SEC team in like a decade. On the down side; you have to face the best actual-Vanderbilt team in like a decade. Easy come, easy go.
3:30:00 PM Fresno State 3.5
3:30:00 PM UNLV -3.5
make that UNLV -1 cuz:
LAS VEGAS -- Matthew Sluka, the starting quarterback for undefeated UNLV, announced Tuesday night on social media he will not play in any more games this season.
there are a lot of rumors out there about what's going on but no doubt it has to be over $$$. Sure UNLV is 3-0 and he has ran the ball well but his passing has been inaccurate. If this is tampering from another college, what school can pay more and is that desperate for a QB next season?
in his place, UNLV apparently is starting another highly touted FCS transfer (lol).
make that UNLV -1 cuz:
there are a lot of rumors out there about what's going on but no doubt it has to be over $$$. Sure UNLV is 3-0 and he has ran the ball well but his passing has been inaccurate. If this is tampering from another college, what school can pay more and is that desperate for a QB next season?
in his place, UNLV apparently is starting another highly touted FCS transfer (lol).
ESPN has an article saying Sluka is basically alleging that he was promised NIL money that didn't materialize
Furiously googling who the backup is, I see Williams who transferred from Campbell, who is a 6th year who has played a ton and looks like he got better every year listed as the backup. But, Friel is the only other QB who's thrown a pass this year? Started as a freshman, played in 4 games as a sophomore, then didn't see the field last year as a junior.
UNLV message board claiming Sluka's NIL agreements were met, but his family felt his value was higher after their hot start
of course that's what they would allege, but wild if true
