Top Two Pair Bloated Multi-way Pot

Hand is probably fine, and now you shove

Not sure why you hate the spot; looks like a dreamy scenario to me?

Pre was fine, now it's 490 into 420 ott (about a psb) and we have top two. If the "good payer" flatted with a set because V1's been laggy, we can still fill up.

Fine so far, raise (shove) now and love it.

I'd have check-raised the flop, but as it stands you have top two with no straights or flushes. Jam now - you'd hate an 8 to hit and lose to K8o. You are almost always ahead now, can get called by worse, charge drawing hands. What's not to like.

Preflop you're getting 12/1 with a suited King - absolutely fine to call

I honestly don't hate a fold preflop but I'm a massive nit (ldo). Half the time I don't play Kxs limped to me on the Button (I'll mostly need a special player in the hand to do so) because I'm worried about the RIO issues versus Axs (which everyone always plays) and meanwhile it has nothing else going for it. But being OOP here (hard to increase IO / limit RIO) is the kicker for me.

Think I would mostly just bet/evaluate x 3 on safe runouts (often leaning to a nitty fold if raised) to charge draws / Kx.

As played (and I probably would have donked for fear of turn checking thru), action kinda looks like Kx versus a draw. We only have a PSB left. Think I just stuff it now?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Against a full table of unknowns, I probably check-raise the flop. But I went flat calling because:

1: V1 cleared the field - I'm unlikely to fold out either player and V1 probably shoves with a FD or V2 is easily priced in with a FD. If playing all-in against a FD, I'd rather have one card to come not two.
2: If V2 is nutted with a set, I think he smooth calls the flop a lot. He probably wants me in there and he likely also assessed that V1 would keep barreling. He's the kind to let an aggressive player take some rope.
3: I estimated V1 would continue barreling on the turn with most of his range.

OTT one V1 has bet and V2 has flatted a second time, I believe I can safely remove sets from V2s range, cutting my risk of running headlong into a set in half.

I think preflop is pretty much mandatory. I just hate being OOP with a hand that is at best a vulnerable two-pair and virtually never the nuts against 8 players. Ever winning with raggy Kx in this position seems to be entirely in the hands of the poker gods. On the BTN, RFI going heads-up, I can win the pot a dozen ways. From the BB calling multi-way I need to hit big, and it has to hold because it's unlikely I can ever take down the pot without showdown, and how strong is KK77 when 180+ bb stacks go in? It's definitely on the weak side. Especially with V1 uncapped.

But when you talk about V1 being uncapped, don't you really mean preflop where he can have hands like AA which are far from nutted now. In fact he's less likely than V2 (or you) to have a set given that he shouldn't often have 22, while you block both the higher sets.

I did shove, I don't think there's any option OTT. V1 instantly said all-in, not sure he realized V2 was shorter than me. V2 tanked a bit, but ultimately folded. Show me AA or AK one time? Nope. 22 for the set. Blank river. GG.

I think I played the hand standard, arguably could have cr the flop, but for me the outcome would have been the same. If I just call turn, V barrels river, probably all-in and I have to call. It's a cooler, it happens and it's especially annoying when it happens late in the day against the only stack that has you covered. But why was I even in this hand? I didn't want to play K7 against everyone.

What bothers me is preflop seems destined for trouble. I'm getting 12:1, but I'm not sure I can consistently realize enough equity against the field. If I'm on the button, I fold K7s against a raise + call(s) routinely. Most often, if I'm playing K7, I am in position and raising enough to isolate. Otherwise, K7 just isn't strong enough IMO. So if I wouldn't put myself in this situation from the button where I have positional advantage, why do I put myself in the same situation out of position solely because I already have $3 out there? Every other position, I am never flatting K7 against multiple opponents - I'm waiting for a better spot.

If I had raised to $60 preflop, 22 goes away - he was LAG not a maniac and getting poor odds to setmine. If V2 could call, then the flop is the virtual nuts for me and I win. On other flops, I can navigate against one villain with my range uncapped. But because I flatted, I end up catching a very good hand against an insanely wide range, and my range is capped. I think K7 is too weak to squeeze, but I think squeezing anything from the BB is generally superior to flatting, and maybe folding is superior despite the odds being laid when I have a hand that can't squeeze.

Maybe I theoretically have a tiny EV+ with a call, but I generally don't like to put my money in with slight EV+. I'm not a pro, I'm not playing pros, I don't need to squeeze out every tiny edge. I'm playing in games where a lot of people make big mistakes (including me sometimes), so I can do very well exploiting the low hanging fruit, mostly taking down pots without showdown. Is it worth playing positions where I am maybe realizing 10% equity with great play just because I am getting laid 12:1 odds? Put that way, I don't think so. I'm playing in games where if you avoid big -EV plays and exploit some of the bigger EV+ opportunities, you're cashing out a winner frequently. There isn't a need to push the thinner EV edges and take on the variance that comes with thin edges.

So how wide can I squeeze when the only hand that might play back hard is UTG? I might try a squeeze or fold strategy from these small raise, mass caller scenarios.

I would be pretty happy as I jammed turn. Might also raise flop often.

Agreed, K7 is obviously too weak to squeeze. But calling feels wrong. I get 12:1, but my equity against a bunch of random ranges is around 10%+- 2%. With K7, I'm pretty close to middle of the pack, I'm probably 3rd or 4th in raw equity. So lets say my raw equity is at the higher side: 12%. In theory, if I could realize all my equity, I need 8.5% to call. So 12%>8.5% if everyone was all-in for say $500, then mathematically a call is correct because I'm risking $500 to win a $4,000 pot that I win 12% of the time. 12% of $4,000 = $480 and I lose $500 88% of the time: -$440. My EV is +$40 for risking $500. The math doesn't suddenly get different because it is only $10. My EV edge, if I can realize my equity perfectly and repeat this position infinite times with infinite money, is 8%.

If we aren't all-in, that makes things worse. Because with K7s, in the second-worst position at the table, can I be expected to overrealize, perfectly realize or underrealize my equity? The answer is clearly "underrealize". If I don't hit two pair on the flop, say it is K53, am I going to realize the full equity of my hand? Not a chance, even though with that flop I'm probably best, V2 can steal it from me like taking candy from a baby because he has position and is a good player. When V1 gives up on his 22, he takes the initiative and probably takes it down because without a second pair, I can withstand one street of betting at most. If I just hit my 7, I might not even be able to withstand that, even though that has paths to the winning hand as well. If I flop a FD, I still can't always maximize my equity because I have to fear the A high flush as a real possibility. If I catch a goofy straight with my 7 like 678910, I might not be able to maximize my equity because QJ is definitely in play.

So while my raw equity might be 12% (which I think is being generous), the equity I realize is almost certainly a lot lower than that. I think realizing the 8.5% equity necessary to justify the call is actually extremely difficult, maybe impossible OOP - even if you are starting with 12% raw equity. And there are certainly random selections of hands where your raw equity is way lower than 12%, and even sometimes lower than 8% making the call outright losing even with perfect equity realization.

Adding more players to the pot doesn't improve your odds. It makes it harder to realize your equity and makes it more likely you underrealize your equity as opposed to overrealizing it. And your raw equity goes down for each additional random hand added to the mix. That's why GTO doesn't involve a bunch of limping.

If I estimate that in reality, with K7s from the big blind, I can realize approximately 70% of my raw equity (which I think is generous), and on average, my raw equity will be 11% 8-handed, then it is a slightly -EV play to call. Putting $10 in the pot, I can expect to win $80 7.7% of the time ($6.16) and lose $7 92.3% of the time ($6.46). I'm losing $0.30 on that $7. And I think that is assuming some fairly high-level post-flop play, or horrible post-flop play from villains. I think against even one competent player to your left, your equity realization might decline to 50% or less. And I know there is at least one competent V in the pot.

I have to say, the more I think about it, gobbledygeek is probably right. This is a fold pre-flop that might not be fun. But if we had solvers solving 8-way preflop moves, I don't think the computer recommends a call here ever. It's a fold or raise probably with 100% of the continuing range. And yeah, K7s is a bit light to squeeze. That makes it a fold.

Just call or fold, it doesn't really matter. We're not breeding pandas here.

Don't know why you've felt a need to be a jerk since I got here. I came here to discuss poker strategy, if I wanted troll drivel I'd be on FB.

Anyway, have your message board, Deuces

Lighten-up, Frances.

Sometimes having cold water splashed in our face helps to break the spiraling.

All I can think of reading this^.

As for the hand...

PRE - If your read on V1 is that he's been getting out of line, why not 3B with K7s? Make it $150. Or fold. Or call. Whatevs. We're supposed to defend with a narrower range facing so many opponents, but we're getting such a price, it can't be terrible to flat, I guess.

FLOP - Y u no donk, or check-raise?

I mean, seriously, if anyone is likely to show up here with 72, it's you in the BB. I could see LOL-donking here, to rep 72, and pray someone wants to try and rep KK or K7, or actually has K2s.

If we're not going to donk, then it seems like a mandatory check-raise, when V c-bets $50 into $70, and gets a call. I'm check-raising to at least $200 or $250, praying he 3B jams.

TURN - OMG, just jam. Like, what are you waiting for?

Why do you hate being in this spot? This is a dream spot at 1/3, with all that dead money in the pot, and CO being short-stacked.

You block KK and 77. You crush 76. With card removal, it's very likely someone has a flush draw here, or worse KX. Just get it in.

Do you think anyone is just going to let go of KX at this point, when your x/r is going to look like you turned two pair with 76, or maybe some sort of combo-draw, and they think all their outs are live?

You're going to want to lay down in traffic if the river is another diamond, or makes someone kings up, or it's another 7, and they fold when you donk, or check back if you check.

ETA - just read the reveal. This is why I think using our read on V1 and putting in the 3B pre is a good idea here. Every caller has severely capped their range. If he's opening 22 UTG, then, yes, he's pushing the action, and we need to exploit that, by taking some trashy hands and bluffing with them. Maybe he calls with 22, and we still end up getting stacked, but if you 3B to >12x pre, he's going to be folding a lot. With so much dead money in the pot, pre, it seems criminal not to go for the hard exploit here.

There's a whopping one way recently you can get a WSOP ring for a cash game. That someone has one and is oddly playing a lock stack at the cash table doesn't mean anything. 99.i9% of WSOP rings are for tournamnets. This isn't a tournament.

There's lots of random hands people can have there. Maybe someone has 22. The lower stacked guy could have it and you still get some back from the higher stacked player.

This is an easy jam. You block kings (they'd probably have been re-raised preflop, 7's and if someone has 2's, then good for them. They're going to get your money most likely.

Shove. This isn't a hard situation and you make money most of the time. If this amount of money means too much to instantly see this, you need to go work and not play poker. That's not an insult either. Don't play if the money means that much.

Grunch: have to c/r that flop. Really smash it.

Once you don’t smash the flop then you need to bomb the turn. Not sure what you’re waiting for?