1/3 Grinding and Bankroll
Hi all,
First post in this specific forum. Normally post in NL Strategy. Hoping for some feedback about bankroll management.
I started playing 4-5 times a week at MGM National Harbor in March after a few months off. Previously I had been playing at MD Live and lost most of what I had won (around $1,200). Anyway, I took $200 to the casino and tried my luck. No bankroll to start really.
I had a great March (+$3,000) but a terrible April (-$3,000) after trying 2/5 and losing $1k and a horrific 24-hour session where I dumped $1,800 in just cooler after cooler (set over set, AK into AA, nut flush v. boat, etc.). This month I'm up around $1,000 so far. Any tips about bankroll management that can keep me from losing it all again? Do you set some of your winnings aside for example?
I have a somewhat steady income outside of poker but my goal is to make poker a supplement to that income and not just a break-even hobby.
Appreciate the feedback.
Thanks,
DT
It really depends on the student and their mental game. I have a very strong mental game after years of experience and playing through multiple downswings. So I feel like I can power through these stretches no problem. I might tell a student to take a break though or to play shorter sessions. Play smaller easier games. Or do relaxation techniques to make tilt less likely. And decide when you’re ready to start winning again and playing well. A lot is in our control.
Doing very well today so far
If you know you are playing tilted your mental game is not as good as you believe as one way you judge is do you play knowing you are not playing well. You are better than that.
Hope you do get through this rough patch relatively unscathed. I don't want to give advice, since you've shown yourself to be resilient but also aware of when your decisions are impacted by negative variance (e.g. as with being overly aggressive preflop). I wonder, though, does this awareness of "worse" decision-making (I use inverted commas because your strategy might not be worse; you don't know until you fully analyse it) always translate into making the appropriate adjustments. At what point does resilience become a form of stubbornness? I guess you're best placed to know.
Hope you do get through this rough patch relatively unscathed. I don't want to give advice, since you've shown yourself to be resilient but also aware of when your decisions are impacted by negative variance (e.g. as with being overly aggressive preflop). I wonder, though, does this awareness of "worse" decision-making (I use inverted commas because your strategy might not be worse; you don't know until you fully analyse it) always translate into making the appropriate adjustments. At what poin
I’m working on it. I think my biggest leak lately has been overplaying KK and QQ.
Played 10/10 briefly today. Ran top boat into quads AQJJ9ds to a limp called crappy 88 J88K3 runout. Also a bluff didn’t get though. Decided I’m taking a break from playing bigger games until I book a bunch of solid wins at the smaller games.
Lost $3,400 today when all was said and done, didn’t play too badly but definitely ran poorly. Rest now and another day tomorrow. My friend gave me good advice as he’s been running bad too. That was comforting. Did well at 1/2 just lost a lot at bigger games.
Got like 13 hours of sleep last night, had some cool dreams, one I was buying an electric car with my mom in a foreign country in the future, people doing wheelies with motorcycles by the ocean shore, another I was being flown around near waves in a plane, then finally I was in a horror film being told some murderous secret right before the killer walked into our hotel room.
I solicited more advice from players about these swings and one said cardio, taking breaks, game selection. All good things. Lattes now... very important, then exercise.
Last night I almost played perfectly except when I 4! T9876ds and got it in three ways. That was a mistake due to frustration. So one mistake all night at this point is acceptable. But really want to play perfectly if I can. My overplaying spots pre have only accounted for a small fraction of my losses this month which is good.
I’m working on it. I think my biggest leak lately has been overplaying KK and QQ.
Played 10/10 briefly today. Ran top boat into quads AQJJ9ds to a limp called crappy 88 J88K3 runout. Also a bluff didn’t get though. Decided I’m taking a break from playing bigger games until I book a bunch of solid wins at the smaller games.
Feel like we’ve read this before here - how long of a break from the bigger games you planning to take?!
Played a few hours, lost a little getting it in good and losing trips + nfd versus worse trips, top two nfd to oesd bdnfd, found the disciplined river fold even blocking the nuts. chopped a dsAA versus ssAA as well. Even losing small pots is really getting me upset.
It's really unfortunate to be in the middle of a downswing right now because the big mix is extremely juicy tonight, enough to take a shot. Oh well.
Played pretty well, just was flop and card dead, lost a pot with QQ997ds against action player's AQ532 and KKnfd on A83hh didn't get there either. Lost an AAJT6ss to JJTT3. Possibly missed a couple bluffs but not clear. Maybe if I was winning i would be ore aggro in those spots.
Lost KQQJT to 99nfd on T529dd2. Lost trips nfd to trips as well, got dinner with a friend and caught up.
It's insane how the negative variance is hitting me all of a sudden, like a ton of bricks, while things were going so smoothly for so long. I'll keep trying to lose the minimum and eliminate or reduce mistakes caused by tilt. For the most part I did not tilt last night which I am really happy about. Maybe a little less aggro in certain spots, "loser's tilt."
Had dreams about shopping for expensive zip ups in a department store. (Won't be doing that anytime soon give how poker has been going.) Ended down $1,650 on the session, an improvement, lol.
Woke up in the middle of the night after getting plenty of sleep, will latte and exercise, then see what is running this time of night.
Also got a new student which was good.
Maybe? I had no idea it was deleted. In any case, here's the Abyss post. It's been quoted many times, so it's not like I'm uncovering something that's not already out there.
The Abyss
I was in Vegas this year ****ing off during the WSOP. I was at a poker table one morning when someone I respect probably more than anyone else in the (poker/gambling) world sits down. I respect him because he has been around/in action/surviving forever→ sounds easy I’m sure to anyone who has been crushing over their first few years of live play (there are plenty of people on extended heaters all around the world), but it’s not, at all, for a myriad of reasons (just look at how few 10 year+ vets there are)… I also respect this guy because he is completely loaded with humility and sincerity- he will talk straight/share stories and information with anyone who is not a POS, and if you watch closely you will see him help/take care of all sorts of very down on their luck/haggard looking characters (I can only imagine how many of these dudes were crushers/ballers at one point) who pass by him in the poker room, randomly or not…
ANYWAYS, this dude has pretty much “seen it all.” At least as much as anyone else I ever play with (I’ve played with older players—this guy is mid-fifties-- who have prob played more hours of poker total, but I’m talking about playing in the biggest games, for a living, etc). And in addition to poker, this guy is a very sharp sports bettor/gambler. So he understands edge available, variance, etc, extremely well (especially for an lol live pro )…
ANYWAYS, ANYWAYS, this guy takes a 1-outer beat for stacks to some foreign kid pretty quickly after he sits down. Now he has never been one to complain at the table obv (anyone who has been around at all knows to not do this), and the permanent dark bags under his eyes tell you this is far from the first time he’s gotten super unlucky/faced adversity in his life (to further illustrate how old school this dude is, when I started playing with him he straight up told me I reminded him of Stu Ungar, because I was a fish 9 handed , but the last person he liked playing against short-handed )… But he actually has a legit befuddled/just seen a ghost look on his face after his ~ 3k stack is pulled in by the dealer and pushed to the foreign kid. Which is my que to say quietly from across the table, “Gross.”
Surprisingly (shockingly, actually) he breaks code and opens up to me in front of everyone. “(DGAF),” he says in gentle disgust (he knows I’ve got some miles on me too now lol), “that’s the third 1-outer this week!” And after I make the actual “eek” face, he concludes while shaking his head, “These past 2 months are the worst I’ve EVER run… Seriously… Just incredible…”
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So what?! Why am I making this super long as it is thread, even longer? Just to talk about some old schooler who ran bad this summer???
No. I’m writing this post for me (and for some of you). This old schooler wasn’t just “running bad.” He knows how to handle “running bad.” He was running sooooo bad that he was actually in the variance abyss, where NO ONE can see straight/act right/play their A game.
After 30-40 years of beats, swings, anomalies, etc, one hand/one stroke of bad luck certainly wasn’t going to phase the Vegas old schooler. And it didn’t. It was the anomalous streak of bad luck strokes (I only witnessed the most recent one) that got him. But still, that this super seasoned vet, who understands math/probabilities/variance/etc very well (and he’s tough as nails btw), was completely owned/destroyed by his recent unlucky streak- I found that to be pretty ****ing amazing/telling. And his face/reaction/befuddlement that morning has been in the back of my mind ever since…
I’ve been to the variance abyss a couple times in my own career (2 insanely horrific against all odds stretches over ~ 7 years of high volume live play/gambling where I myself- pretty ****ing logical, well versed, battle tested, etc- was seeing ghosts and in turn, acting/playing a fool.).
I’m actually just coming out of my second stint in the abyss now (I ran good and won heaps over my last 2 sessions, which doesn’t mean I’m safely out for sure or I can’t go right back in lol, but I def feel different than I have the past few months, and I look forward to returning to form as a poker player/person soon- I hope). And it temporarily changes you, no matter who you are/how long you’ve been around/how much you’ve thought about all this stuff…
The abyss makes you self-destructive. It makes you depressed. It drains your energy. It makes you make bad calls, bad folds, bad bluffs, bad value bets, etc. It makes you readable at the table. It makes everyone else less readable. The fish suddenly play OK against you. The scared grinders suddenly play well against you. And the world class players suddenly own your troubled soul. YOU are the blood in the water- even if you’ve always been the alpha shark.
The variance abyss also makes you do dumb ****/things you never would. For respectable gamblers like the Vegas old schooler, it makes you actually talk about your bad luck at the table, even though you know it’s bad for the game and no one cares/wants to hear about it. For other less respectable gamblers, it often does much worse. There are countless examples obv (just go search NVG or HSNL) of the abyss quickly turning OK people/harmless poker enthusiasts into scammers, deadbeats, crazy people→ no one running good/OK ever owes a bunch of people money or is out scamming/committing crimes or sleeping on the streets or whatever.
So what does the abyss look like? It’s more than just some longshot beats obv. It’s ALWAYS finding the top of a range when the money goes in. It’s finding the very bottom of a range when the money doesn’t go in. It’s constantly turning 2 pair or trips when you are against a set. It’s ALWAYS BEING AGAINST A SET. It’s flopping a set yourself (finally) but knowing you aren’t going to win (and you don’t). It’s the game breaking at your lowpoint every session. It’s the 100 vpip fish taking a phone call as you get your first good hand. It’s being in position with dominating hands against a whale all night and never winning. It’s having a rep/image such that no one folds anything to you and yet you don’t turn over a winning hand for like 3 sessions straight. It’s doing all the things you've always done to cultivate a good game (investing lots of time, money and energy) and then having some other good player randomly show up and start binking all over the place until all the free money is gone. It’s getting all your playable hands in the sb. It’s having someone spill their drink on your lap. It’s getting gum on your pants from under the table- on both legs. It’s knocking your sirachi sauce off your food tray and having it hit the floor in such a magical way that it shoots up into the air and all over the well dressed high stakes limit pro behind you . It’s someone forgetting to straddle when you get aces. It’s firing a second barrel as your opponent picks up a flush draw, firing a third when they get there, checking back worse when they don’t. It’s having a nit bluff you…
In the abyss you don’t lose 5 flips in a row. You lose 5 flips in a row, then 5 more , then 5 more, then 5 more, and so on… You get sick of flipping but the whale demands you do it/he pays you juice. He’s a little bit shady and you don’t know if he already looked at his cards so you agree, but only if you can switch cards. He agrees and you give him your Aces… You don’t fire the 5 sharp nfl plays you get (because you are being responsible) and you watch them go 5-0 easy. The next week you say, “**** it, gamble!” and you fire the 5 new sharp plays given to you. You go 0-5 (partially because Eli Manning is a worthless human being), and you suddenly realize that you’ve had 0 winning sports betting weeks in the last 6 months. Now needing to earn in poker, you lose a bunch, 4 sessions in a row- in insanely soft short-handed big games, that YOU built. You win 200 bucks the next session (hey, you’ll take it), but get completely whacked right when you sit down the following session. And so on…
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So who has been to the abyss? All but the newest players have seen glimpses of it imo. I got overset twice in an hour and 4 times in a session playing big a few years ago. That’s a glimpse. I played a 3000 bb pot with A9 vs AA on 9954 and did not win a few years before that. That’s a glimpse. I got it all in on the flop the other day (single raised multiway pot, I called on the button pre) with 8h6h vs 9c8d on 9s7h5s and I got felted. If I hadn’t already been in the abyss, that would have merely been a glimpse as well.
The abyss is basically relentless bad luck/no relief. You have to think, “OK, and it can’t get any worse than this” at least 20 times in a row spread out over time before it’s even possible you are in it. You have to FEEL like you CAN’T WIN (even if lots of data/results/logic suggests the opposite). You have to literally want to cry or break something for several hours straight (depending on how you deal with ****) for there to even be a chance you are in it. You have to a least ponder for a second when getting dressed which shirt might be luckiest/break the slump (even if you aren’t a superstitious idiot). You have to at least consider seat changing or asking for a new setup for real (even though you hate that **** and know it’s super ******ed and would never actually do it). You have to at least get mad at/airball the dealers a little for your bad hands. It has to look like there are 15 people at the table when the game is full. You have to start thinking a little, “This guy is playing kinda good” when you know deep down said guy is super terrible. You have to honestly think (and maybe even tell a friend), “No one has EVER run this bad before…“ Otherwise, no shot you have been there imo.
As mentioned, I’ve been to the abyss twice in my (pretty long) career (fingers crossed, 7 hail marys, etc, my last 2 sessions just brought me out). The Vegas old schooler has probably been there more than that (though he plays a WAY lower variance brand of poker/gambling, so maybe not). Guys like Doyle Brunson, Barry Greenstein, Mike Matusow, Ted Forrest, etc, I’m sure they’ve all been there plenty (you can see it on their faces). But have guys like Antonio Esfandiari? Idk, he’s prob played a lot of poker, but as a commentator he’s said some things that honestly make me think he hasn’t/he doesn’t even remotely grasp variance as it applies to live poker.
What % of the people playing in the biggest game in your casino have been there? Like really been there? I’d say maybe 20%. What % of the hotshots/LAGs (people still playing LAG that is) have been there? Pretty much zero.
The reason for these low figures? For sane, healthy people, one extended trip to the abyss is enough imo. They aren’t going back. Whether that means playing way tighter/more conservative, much smaller (where the abyss doesn’t really hurt), or quitting poker/gambling all together, that’s what the human survival instinct has most sane people do imo. The pain and the financial loss is just too much…
As mentioned, some warriors do just stick it out and get perma bags under their eyes and occasionally act like rookies at the table. And some stay around but it’s not long until they resort to illegal/dirty activity until they are completely broke, locked up, banned, or worse.
And then others try to document/sort through their super fishy thoughts (which only show up while in the abyss every few years) with super long, rambling essays posted anonymously on the internet, all in an effort to be more objective, stronger, and more sane (and maybe help a few others do the same) in general, and ESPECIALLY the next time they find themselves in the The Abyss.
Spoiler
A standard brutal downswing for an online player is ~ a career for a live player (in terms of # of hands). Obv live games are way softer/lower variance per hand, but still, something kinda spooky to think about imo if you are fortunate enough to have never really been in the live abyss/are skeptical it exists ...
K, now run good now/don't trip on this post too much lol, just let it be something you have in your back pocket to better cope/come out faster should you ever find yourself out shopping for lucky shirts, telling your friends you have “the worst luck ever”, or grinding HARD in bankroll rebuilding mode- again, after being super pumped up- again just a few months ago.
GL
Thanks for reposting, I’m feeling this way right now. It’s just a lot of things not going well at the same time, bad timing bad play etc., in poker.
I played well today, made a few hundred at 1/2 plo. Feels like absolutely nothing next to what I’m down this month.
Lost AK to AQ all in at 2/5, turned k flush into bluff on board pairing river and the nut flush called me at plo too.
At least I had a nice moment with a reg last night, older lady at plo we listened to music on our phones together she played “why Delilah” and I played “lady in red.” She said she’d buy me a new chip bag for my birthday. Very sweet lady. Finding some nice moments in the gloom.
I love "Lady in Red."
Booked an $800 win at plo, felt like I was actually running good for a change. There’s hope still..I needed this!
I just read the Abyss. It was a good read. It is good to know that we are not alone. However, I was hoping for more of an answer. Maybe that is the answer.
Yeah would be nice if there was a “it worked out in the end, hero started running good again” conclusion to the essay. Maybe I can write that ending here…hope so.
Had a dream I got it in pre with AAT87 and flopped nut straight nfd turned top set rivered top boat…a harbinger of things to come?
I guess if I’ve gone over six years without a stretch like this I should count my blessings. Probably means I’ve been doing something right this whole time. If I keep doing those things, it will turn around eventually. (But when?) The way I see it I’ve been on a six year heater anyway so a little pain is bound to come. This month is worse than usual due to playing the big mix once and more 20/40 mix in general, and going to Atlantic City for a week which reduced my volume of my bread and butter cash games. And running bad and playing worse as a result in plo.
My buddy said he’s gone on similar downswings as me and he’s a really good player whose game I respect too. That was comforting.
Last afternoon’s session I really felt like I had some upward momentum and a needed psychological boost. TT886ds flopped 855 versus 5x, AAQ42cc flopped 542cc but missed against A3 and 36 (at least I flopped well!!), AKJ96ds flopped JJ3hh my nfd and got there too in a 3! pot. Ran hot! Let’s keep it up.
Yeah would be nice if there was a “it worked out in the end, hero started running good again” conclusion to the essay. Maybe I can write that ending here…hope so.
As far as I can tell, the DGAF story is ongoing, largely via his podcasts. I made the odd contribution to his original thread, in the early 2010s, as did many others. It's a shame it can't be accessed today, since there were many nuggets, particularly in relation to variance, not to mention the social art of live poker. I guess you could summarise his poker philosophy as "you have to give up some EV in the short-term to win in the long-term," or put another way, "don't be a nit to those who are good for the game."
I guess if I’ve gone over six years without a stretch like this I should count my blessings. Probably means I’ve been doing something right this whole time. If I keep doing those things, it will turn around eventually. (But when?) The way I see it I’ve been on a six year heater anyway so a little pain is bound to come. This month is worse than usual due to playing the big mix once and more 20/40 mix in general, and going to Atlantic City for a week which reduced my volume of my bread and butter
This to me is why I sometimes am wary of DGAFian thinking (as much as I admire what's he added to poker culture). You can become spooked by the inevitability of downswings. It becomes existential --- feelings of dread, a sense of impending doom, being cursed, fear of the deck, etc., --- which, while sincere and based on real life experience, can be infectious and detrimental. In the end, a downswing is not a thing in itself; it's about how you choose to frame results. Rationally, I think the best response to "the abyss" is to say: sure, in the short-term, we experience patches of negative variance that are bunched together; long term, once we zoom-out, these patches don't look nearly as significant. Easy to say in retrospect, far, far tougher in real time.
As far as I can tell, the DGAF story is ongoing, largely via his podcasts. I made the odd contribution to his original thread, in the early 2010s, as did many others. It's a shame it can't be accessed today, since there were many nuggets, particularly in relation to variance, not to mention the social art of live poker. I guess you could summarise his poker philosophy as "you have to give up some EV in the short-term to win in the long-term," or put another way, "don't be a nit to those who are
Yep, it's one long session. As someone said the other day, "John will have all the money eventually." Just gotta wait out the bad streaks.
Also, on bullies in a poker room, good post from darth sagebrush:
"A casino is almost the last place on earth a person should need to be concerned with literal "bullies." There are cameras everywhere, and armed security available quickly if anything goes wrong. Even if the person is scrawny and nervous as OP describes himself. In the worst case scenario, if he wins a bunch and is still afraid then he can get security to escort him to his car.
But what OP describes as "bullying" is not physical attacks or threats. It's mostly verbal. The fact, which everyone here seems to be evading, is that the world is full of awful trashy people with few or no redeeming qualities. Some of these people have money and an urge to gamble. They tend to concentrate in places where they can satisfy that urge. They are not worthy of your respect. The only attention you need give them is that required to find out how best to take their money. Be courteous to civil people, of course, but that shouldn't need to be said.
A hog farmer profits from handling swine, but he has to learn to ignore the stench. Anyone working in a casino, which includes winning poker players, profits from handling two-legged swine. These usually don't stink, but do make a lot of hideous noises. If you learn to think of their speech as nothing but that, the grunts and squeals of animals, you'll find it much easier to ignore. It's simply a necessary condition of working with filthy beasts. Visualize them as delicious sizzling bacon. If one is trying hard to provoke a reaction from you, it might also be useful to visualize each step of the process you'd use to turn him into bacon.
If this is beyond your ability, you'll just have to find some other way of making money."
--
Lastly, having integrity is important for poker players too. All evil needs to succeed is for a good person to do nothing. colluding couple, toxic pro, I spoke up against them and I am proud of myself for being principled.
So far running well in this early morning session, lost KQQ96ds to wide ranges but won a dsKK763 against them and more than compensated for the earlier loss. Correctly folded the nut straight on the flop in a big pot too where I limped EP tried to back iso the fish but everyone called. Feeling like I’m finding my mojo again. Dumbo’s got his groove back!! Gotta keep up this positive momentum.
Up $3,374 in 10 hours…let’s go! Felt like the good old days of easy run good money again.
Got plenty of sleep, over 10 hours, now lattes and music (alanis morisette, "crazy," madonna, "love profusion," "erotica," nelly furtado, "I'm like a bird," above and beyond, "alchemy," rihanna, "what now," dido, "hurricanes"), phil galfond, exercise...thinking extra jumping jacks today to really get the cardio going, maybe some stretching too.
Has anyone read corey mikesell's plo5 pamphlet? Just wondering if it's worth $197, seems steep next to some alternatives (ahem...). looked for reviews and did not find any.
Someone last night congratulated me on my big score and asked if I was the person on 2+2 who won $70,000 a month this year...lol rumors are funny. I really wish.
I can feel the frustration dissipating session by session as I book wins, tilt is like a sickness slowly getting better and the medicine is rungood. Going to really focus on preserving this momentum and play disciplined, after my session yesterday I remembered how much happier I am when winning and really don't want to go back to that dark place again so I'll do everything I can not to. I remember this winning reg was criticized by another player for playing too tight a long time ago and his response was "I don't want to lose." Totally makes sense to me now. Playing tighter preflop definitely helps reduce the losses.
Looks like I'll sell another strat guide soon which always helps too.
Taking lower variance lines pre today, AAK82ss flatted as did with AKKQ7ds. Found easy folds on the flops. (Would have won at showdown potentially if I iso’d and gotten it heads up but that was far from guaranteed.) Feeling like my mental game is back where it needs to be after a couple wining sessions finally. Winning so far today as well. This is really nice.
Winning at poker is also great for my mental health. That’s worth a lot. Reducing the losses is really important. If this spell has taught me anything it is that not exacerbating the runbad with play bad is absolutely essential to my wellbeing.
As a massive nit, it has always been my theory that if you have two completely opposite methods (one very low variance and one very high variance) that produce somewhat-in-the-ballpark ~same-ish results, that you'd be far better off taking the low variance route... as most humans suck terribly at dealing with high variance routes.
GlongsinglesentencesismybusinessandbusinessisgoodG
As a massive nit, it has always been my theory that if you have two completely opposite methods (one very low variance and one very high variance) that produce somewhat-in-the-ballpark ~same-ish results, that you'd be far better off taking the low variance route... as most humans suck terribly at dealing with high variance routes.
GlongsinglesentencesismybusinessandbusinessisgoodG
I’m honestly not sure whether some of my massive scores this year would have been possible had I not pushed the envelope preflop and taken higher variance lines at times. I bet winrates are higher with higher variance but downswings are bigger as well.
Which you prefer depends on your personality and risk tolerance really. Some people are “go big or go home” and others want easy, steady money with little stress. Come to think of it, that probably describes the difference between many hold em players and plo players pretty well. Some are willing to take bigger risks to win more while others want less risk in exchange for lower returns. Plo players buy bitcoin and hold em players buy CDs?
Funny because I probably fall in between as most of my investments are in the stock market which has considerable short-term volatility but overall long term positive returns. (And no crypto.)
