A9 on a T92 board. Cbet question
5/5
~$500 effective
Let’s say MP and BB are random, unknown fish. Limping a lot, calling a lot.
I’m having trouble figuring out a strategy against a weak player on this board with a hand like A9. I’m particularly interested in bet sizing. Some say a 1/3 pot bet is best here, but the solver suggests a full pot bet. What’s the optimal sizing in this spot, and why?
MP limps, Hero(BU) A♥9♥ raises to $25, BB calls, MP folds
Flop($60) T♣ 9♦ 2♥
x, Hero - ?
12 Replies
Think about the BB's range and the types of hands you want to either fold or call...as well as his likelihood of his checkraising you.
If I give my opponent a pretty wide preflop range (around 30% of hands) and assume he’s passive, never x/r flop unless he has sets or two pair, then the solver suggests range betting with a mix of 1/3 pot and pot bets. Bet big with strong hands and strong draws, but bet small with junk hands, J9, weak top pairs like JT, QT, etc.
That kind of advice confuses me though, because I almost never see anyone actually play like that. There’s probably a reason why it’s not a good approach in real game.
I’ve heard many times that a 1/3 bet accomplishes a lot on that type of board. A small bet can provoke a raise with hands like AT, KT, etc. Sounds great, but in live games, most fish are super tight, they’ll just flat-call pre with pocket Jacks and call that $20 flop bet. So we end up losing value with our strong hands.
That kind of advice confuses me though, because I almost never see anyone actually play like that. There’s probably a reason why it’s not a good approach in real game.
Why would it confuse you that most players play incorrectly, especially since your posting history suggests you view at least 80% of your opponents as "fish"? FWIW, I think you're going to struggle to improve if you continue to view you opponents as "fish" rather than as people with exploitable characteristics about their play.
Simplify the solver strategy to a single size flop strategy. You go larger side like 67pc as there are draws to charge. To get size is independent of your actual hand if you use a single sizing. Either you have a hand to check or a hand to bet
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Without bdfd it might just be check call btw here as this flop also hits his range
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OP: Your instinct to bet 20 is right.
Ed Miller advises in his book "The Course" that as the preflop raiser, you bet heads-up on the flop when you hit the flop one-third of the time and you c-bet with another third of your hands. You want to c-bet all your equity draws with good implied odds. How many other hands to c-bet -- middle pairs, backdoor flush and straight draws, etc. -- is situational dependent.
In this hand, with MPTK and back-door nut flush, you have enough equity to c-bet on the flop. So how much? According to Miller, on the flop, whether you are betting a made hand or c-betting with equity, you always bet large (half to two-thirds pot ) on a wet/dynamic flop and small (30-40 percent pot) on a dry/static flop. Of course, forked bets are the single biggest tell in poker. However, with Miller's strategy, your bet sizings do not reflect the strength of your hand, only the texture of the flop. The purpose of the smaller bet is to make your c-bets cheaper and allow you to make more of them. Against loose-passives calling too wide, small bets as the preflop raiser on dry/static flops prints money.
T92r is exceptional in being a dry/dynamic flop. It missed most of V's range--dry. But 2, 8, 9, or a broadway on the turn can improve someone's hand--dynamic. Miller suggests that static/dynamic is a more crucial consideration than dry/wet. However, in this hand, I suggest c-betting here 20.
Keep in mind that Miller's advice is for heads-up play only. Multiway, GTO and the pros suggest fewer c-bets and smaller flop ones when you do c-bet.
Ed Miller advises in his book "The Course" that as the preflop raiser, you bet heads-up on the flop when you hit the flop one-third of the time and you c-bet with another third of your hands.
I've read most of Miller's books, including his intro to GTO ("Poker's 1%), but the advice above seems odd, especially since many times when we raise it's not with two overcards. It's easier to rely on straight math, which suggests we should be betting the flop approx. 2/3 of the time, with a 2:1 ratio between bluffs and value.
Ive mostly been making small cbets and then much larger turn bets these days and it lets me cbet more often. You can bet $20 here and target hands like Q5 to fold their equity, and A8 to maybe continue.
I think checking here is perfectly fine too, especially cuz i think you get good action if an A peels
A more recent book like MPT will tell you to bet two thirds here
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betting the flop approx. 2/3 of the time, with a 2:1 ratio between bluffs and value.
Miller assumes here a loose passive villain who whiffs the flop with his weak holdings and therefore folds to small bets. I used to always bet the flop 2/3 pot. My winrate went up when I started making more cbets with small bets on dry/static flops.
Keep in mind the these kinds of small and large cbets are heads up in position as the preflop raiser. Miller admits only narrow v-specific calling range preflop. In practice, most flops go multiway, where GTO favors small cbets.
Bet flop small, check most turns, call most rivers (unless we improve we can raise).
I'm just range-betting as the PFR when we're IP. Betting $20 (1/3 pot) on the flop is fine as a default setting. Don't mind sizing up to 1/2 pot when we're HU in a SRP.
Agree with Mlark that we can just check-back most turns with our showdown value, to bluff-catch most rivers, depending on the turn card, and the river bet sizing. I love that line.
I'd probably keep betting small on a heart, another 9, or an ace. Checking back most disconnected low and middling bricks.
Calling the river if V bets around 1/2 pot. Folding if he bets big, like over 2/3 pot. Betting thin for value if he checks, probably around 2/3 pot, but sometimes full pot, depending on the runout.
