NL10 - 99 tough spot river
Villain just lost 100bb in the last few hands and I feel villain is tilted. Can I justify this when thinking of calling this river or am I almost always beat here?
SB: $13.81 (138.1 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $7.59 (75.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9
9
CO raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.75, BB folds, CO calls $0.55
Flop: ($2.50) 5
A
3
(3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB folds, CO calls $0.80
Turn: ($4.10) T
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($4.10) A
(2 players)
CO bets $5.99 and is all-in, Hero?
11 Replies
I agree with the other guy, you are dead here most of the time unless its an absolute whale, never would have thought he would show up with 66. I probably would have fired off again on the turn fairly large, but i'm pretty aggro. As played, I would definitely fold river.
If you think villain is tilted (and you find this out through showdowns) then MAYBE. But villain would have to be really going kind of bonkers for me to be considering a call.
In any other readless situation, this is the clearest fold you can make. For them to have a proper bluffing hand, they would need to float you with something like K or Q high. That's not happening 3 way. So they need to be turning a pair into a bluff. How often is that happening? Not very often at all. Try to think what their natural bluff candidates are. If you can't think of any, it's almost always a fold when you have a bluffcatcher.
I wouldn't cbet in the first place here 3-way. Both villains are fish (one playing an incomplete stack and the other just cold called your 3-bet from SB), so they will most likely play too many offsuit Ax. Given that this is 3-way, you might not even get that many calls from lower pocket pairs. Sure, you get some equity denial by getting folds from broadways and suited connecters etc, but it's not enough reason to bet in a 3-way pot here.
Yeah I think that if this situation happened 100 times, my call here would be -EV. Thank you!
You cbet flop to try and fold out overcards i suppose but once you are called i would be done with the hand rly
Fold as a default, but there are fish I would call against, esp the ones who I know will donk or x/r the flop.
If you have a read, then go w/ it. Someone blowing off stacks and not having 100bbs is a pretty decent amount of info, coupled w/ the overbet that they are desperate to make up some lost money. I like a call there considering the read.
need to check gto i have strong exploitative ideas. Mainly the point is, it doesnt matter if he is tilted, bc the function of it would be always the river all in with the same cards, because its generally a good move and plus ev bc your a little bit more capped, if we read the hand.
How is this a tough spot?
You have third pair.
